Nigeria’s inflation hit 33.20%

…Inflation will come down soon — Bayo Onanuga

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 33.20 percent in March 2024.

The NBS said this in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for March, which was released in Abuja on Monday.

According to the report, the figure is 1.50 per cent points higher compared to the 31.70 percent recorded in February 2024.

It said on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2024 was 11.16 percent higher than the rate recorded in March 2023 at 22.04 percent.

In addition, the report said, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2024 was 3.02 percent, which was 0.10 percent lower than the rate recorded in February 2024 at 3.12 percent.

“This means that in March 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is less than the rate of increase in the average price level in February 2024.”

The report attributed the increase in the headline index for March 2024 on a year-on-year basis and month-on-month basis to increase in some goods and services at the divisional level.

It said these increases were observed in food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel, clothing and footwear, and transport.

Others, it said, were furnishings, household equipment and maintenance, education, health, miscellaneous goods and services, restaurants and hotels, alcoholic beverage, tobacco and kola, recreation and culture, and communication.

It said the percentage change in the average CPI for the 12 months ending March 2024 over the average of the CPI for the previous corresponding 12-month period was 27.13 percent.

“This indicates a 6.76 percent increase compared to 20.37 percent recorded in March 2023,” it said.

The report said the food inflation rate in March 2024 increased to 40.01 percent on a year-on-year basis, which was 15.56 percent higher compared to the rate recorded in March 2023 at 24.45 percent.

“The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis is caused by increases in prices of Garri, Millet, Akpu (uncooked fermented, which are under bread and cereals class), Yam Tuber, and Water Yam.

“Others are Dried Fish Sardine, Mudfish Dried, Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil, Beef Feet, Beef Head, Liver, Coconut, Water Melon, Lipton Tea, Bournvita, and Milo,” NBS said.

It said on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March was 3.62 percent, which was a 0.17 percent decrease compared to the rate recorded in February 2024 at 3.79 percent.

“The fall in food inflation on a month-on-month basis was caused by a decrease in the average prices of Guinea corn flour, Plantain Flour etc (under Bread and Cereals class); Yam, Irish Potato, and CocoYam.

Others are Titus fish, Mudfish Dried, Lipton, Bournvita, and Ovaltine”, it said.

The report said that “all items less farm produce and energy’’ or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 25.90 percent in March on a year-on-year basis.

“This increased by 6.26 per cent compared to 19.63 percent recorded in March 2023.

“The exclusion of the PMS is due to the deregulation of the commodity by removal of subsidy.”

It said the highest increases were recorded in prices of bus journeys within the city, actual and imputed rentals for housing, consultation fee of a medical doctor, etc.

The NBS said on a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.54 percent in March 2024.

“This indicates a 0.37 percent increase compared to what was recorded in February 2024 at 2.17 percent.”

“The average 12-month annual inflation rate was 22.26 percent for the 12 months ending March 2024, this was 5.04 per cent points higher than the 17.22 percent recorded in March 2023,” it said.

The report said on a year-on-year basis in March 2024, the urban inflation rate was 35.18 percent, 12.11 per cent higher compared to the 23.07 percent recorded in March 2023.

The report said on a year-on-year basis in March 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.45 percent, which was 10.37 percent higher compared to the 21.09 percent recorded in March 2023.

“On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate was 2.87 percent, which decreased by 0.20 percent compared to February 2024 at 3.07 percent,” it said.

On states’ profile analysis, the report showed that in March, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi at 39.97 percent, followed by Bauchi at 38.34 percent, and Kwara at 38.10 percent.

It, however, said the slowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis was recorded in Borno at 25.78 percent, followed by Benue and Taraba at 28.12 percent, and Katsina at 28.32 percent.

The report, however, said in March 2024, all items inflation rate on a month-on-month basis was highest in Zamfara at 3.90 percent, followed by Abia at 3.89 percent, and Ondo at 3.75 percent.

“Borno at 1.46 percent, followed by Yobe at 1.84 percent and Adamawa at 1.85 percent recorded the slowest rise in month-on-month inflation,” NBS said.

The report said on a year-on-year basis, food inflation was highest in Kogi at 48.46 percent, followed by Kwara at 46.18 percent, and Akwa Ibom at 45.18 percent.

“Nasarawa at 33.76 percent, followed by Borno at 34.28 percent and Bauchi at 34.38 percent recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis,” it said.

The report, however, said on a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Abia at 5.17 percent, followed by Cross River at 5.14 per cent, and Bayelsa at 4.75 percent.

“Cross River stood at 1.59 percent, followed by Yobe at 2.08 percent and Adamawa at 2.12 percent, recording the slowest rise in inflation on a month-on-month basis,” it said.

…Inflation will come down soon — Bayo Onanuga

Meanwhile, the Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga says while inflation still appears untamed, according to the latest report by NBS, indications are that it will slow down as the Naira continues to strengthen in the market.

He said, “NBS reported that in March 2024, the headline inflation rate increased by 1.50 percent to 33.20 percent relative to the February 2024 headline inflation rate which was 31.70 percent .

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.16 percent points higher compared to the rate recorded in March 2023, which was 22.04 percent .

“What is obvious in the report is that market forces are yet to reflect the strengthening of the Naira in recent weeks against the dollar. The effect will be noticed as old stocks are replaced with new ones bought with a depreciated dollar.

“The Naira had lost 43 percent of its value up till mid-February. But since then it has rallied greatly, becoming the most performing currency among global currencies.

“Governor Olayemi Cardoso of CBN and his team have their job cut for them to find ways of reining in the inflation when they meet May 20-21, about  a week to the Tinubu administration’s first anniversary.”