Nigeria records 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024

By Seun Ibiyemi 

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in real terms (Constant price) grew by 3.84 percent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 on a year-on-year basis, showing is 0.38 percentage points higher than 3.46 percent recorded in Q4 2023.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that released the data on Tuesday said, similarly, it was higher by 0.38 per cent basis points relative to a similar growth rate of 3.46 per cent recorded in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.

It noted that this reflects a higher economic improvement when compared to the preceding quarter (Q3 2024), with the service sector still playing the role of the major driver of the economy which recorded a growth of 5.37 per cent and contributed 57.38 per cent to the aggregate GDP.

Similarly, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the real GDP grew by 10.99 per cent in Q4 2024, reflecting a higher production level than in Q3 2024.

The NBS pointed out that these figures are based on the old method and not on the rebased GDP.

The estimated economic activity in real terms for Q4 2024 stood at ¦ 22,610,393.45 million, which is higher than the rates recorded in Q3 2024 and Q4 2023 which stood at ¦ 20,115,766.93 million and ¦ 21,773,263.25 million.

This also highlighted the improvement in the quarter under review compared to the previous quarters of Q3 2024 and Q4 2024.

The year 2024 ended with an overall annual GDP growth rate of 3.40 percent, from the 2.74 percent reported in 2023.

Thus, there was a decline in the performance of agriculture and Industry in 2024 relative to 2023, while the performance of the Services sector improved in 2024.

In nominal terms (current price), aggregate GDP stood at ¦ 78,374,120.95 million in Q4 of 2024, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 18.91 percent.

This is higher than the value of ¦ 65,908,258.59 million in Q4 2023 and ¦ 71,131,091.07 million in the preceding quarter.

According to the NBS, the major contributing economic activities in real terms in the quarter under review (i.e., Q4 2024) are Crop Production 23.42 percent, Trade 15.11 percent, Telecommunication 14.40 percent, Real Estate 5.88 percent, Financial Institutions 5.76 percent, and Crude petroleum 4.60 percent.

On a broad classification of the economic activities into Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors based on growth, the Agricultural Sector grew by 1.76 percent, and the Industry grew by 2.00 percent, which shows a decline compared to the rate recorded in Q4 2023 at 2.10 percent and 3.86 percent.

The Services sector recorded a 5.37 percent increase compared to the 3.98 percent recorded in Q4 2023.

Analyses of the contributions of the broad economic sectors in the period under review show that Agriculture contributed 25.59 percent, Industry 17.03 of percent, and Services 57.38 percent.

Agriculture and industry’s contribution was less than their contributions in Q4 of 2023 by 0.53 percent and 0.31 basis points.

The Services sector had the highest contribution to the GDP in Q4 2024, surpassing their contribution in the corresponding quarter of 2023 by 0.83 percent basis points.

The annual contributions of the economic sector show that Agriculture contributed 24.64 percent in 2024 which is lower compared to its contributions which stood at 25.18 percent in 2023.

Similarly, the industry sector’s annual contribution was 18.47 percent which is also lower than the figure recorded for 2023 (18.65%).

However, the services sector contributions for 2024 were 56.89 percent which exceeded the 56.18 percent recorded for 2023.

Further disaggregation of the economic activities into oil and non-oil sectors shows that the oil GDP grew by 1.48 percent in Q4 2024, which shows a decline compared to 12.11 percent recorded in Q4 2023, and the previous quarter of Q3 2024 which stood at 5.17 percent.

The oil sector accounted for 4.60 percent during the quarter under review.

The annual oil GDP for 2024 grew by 5.54 percent, which is 7.75 percent higher than the annual GDP recorded for 2023 (-2.22%). while the annual contribution of oil stood at 5.51 percent in 2024 higher than its contribution in Q4 2023 (5.40%).

The NBS said the fourth quarter of 2024 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.56 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2023 by 0.03 mbpd.

On the contrary, the fourth quarter of 2024 production volume was higher than the third quarter of 2024 (1.47 mbpd) by 0.06 mbpd.

The non-oil sector contributes 95.40 percent to the GDP in Q4 of 2024 in real terms, showing an increase on a year-on-year basis when compared to the same period of Q4 2023 which recorded 95.30 percent.

Similarly, the quarter under review exceeds the 94.43 percent recorded in Q3 2024.

The economic performance of the non-oil sector in Q4 2024 is attributed to the growth recorded in some economic activities, including Rail Transport & Pipelines, Metal Ores, Financial Institutions, Road Transport, Quarrying & Other Minerals, and Insurance.

On an annual basis, the non-oil grew by 3.27 percent in 2024, which is higher than the rate recorded in 2023 which stood at 3.04 percent, while in terms of aggregate contributions, the non-oil contributed 94.49 percent in 2024, which is lower than the 94.60 percent reported in 2023.