Nigeria misses oil production target, averages 1.486mbpd — OPEC

…Despite holding Africa’s top exporter status

Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.468 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the first quarter of 2025, falling significantly short of the 2 mbpd target outlined in the federal budget.

This information is detailed in the May 2025 edition of the Monthly Oil Report published by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on its official website.

According to OPEC, Nigeria’s first-quarter output of 1.468 mbpd marks a modest increase from the 1.435 mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. A breakdown of the monthly production figures shows that February posted 1.465 mbpd, March recorded 1.401 mbpd, and April reached 1.486 mbpd.

OPEC’s latest projections indicate that global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow by 1.3 mbpd year-on-year, consistent with previous forecasts.

In a separate set of figures within the same report, Nigeria was noted to have posted a slightly higher average output of 1.521 mbpd for the first quarter, with monthly estimates of 1.540 mbpd in February, 1.499 mbpd in March, and 1.471 mbpd in April.

Despite falling below domestic production goals, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s leading crude oil exporter. However, its export volumes to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries saw a decline as the United States increased its own oil shipments.

The report states that preliminary figures for April showed a drop in crude imports into OECD Europe, due to reduced flows from suppliers such as Russia, Turkey, Nigeria, and Canada. These declines offset an increase in oil imports from the United States. Product imports across the region remained largely unchanged month-on-month, with gains in all major fuel categories except for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

In contrast, Nigeria’s crude exports to the US rose during the same period, as did exports from Mexico, despite an overall dip in America’s oil imports. Based on preliminary data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude imports averaged 5.8 mbpd in April, marking a month-on-month reduction of 134,000 barrels per day or around 2 percent. The data also indicated lower imports from countries like Canada, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, with Nigeria and Mexico filling part of the gap.

Meanwhile, figures from Nigeria’s Ministry of Finance suggest a slightly different production trajectory. The ministry reported production levels of 1.737 mbpd in January and 1.672 mbpd in February 2025. These figures include condensate production, which is often not counted in OPEC’s crude-only data.

To support the ambitious 2025 federal budget, Nigeria is targeting oil revenues of N21 trillion. This figure accounts for roughly half of the projected N40.9 trillion in total federal retained revenues for the year. With total budget spending set at N54.9 trillion, the country is anticipating a record fiscal deficit of N14.1 trillion.

On the global market, Brent crude oil prices experienced a decline earlier in May, dipping below $60 per barrel. However, prices have since rebounded to over $65 per barrel, partly due to a slight easing in trade tensions between the United States and China.