NESG urges FG to sustain 2.2m bpd oil output for budget success
By Seun Ibiyemi
The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has urged the Federal Government to maintain crude oil production at 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to uphold the viability of the 2025 budget.
Speaking at a media briefing in Abuja on Friday, where NESG outlined its strategic vision for 2025 and shared the private sector’s macroeconomic outlook, the group’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Tayo Aduloju, made this recommendation.
Aduloju pointed out that Nigeria’s crude oil production has fluctuated over the years, with three key benchmarks: 1.1 million bpd, 2.2 million bpd, and 2.8 million bpd. He explained that each phase had varying effects on the economy and asserted that aiming for 2.2 million bpd was a practical and necessary target.
“Reaching 2.2 million bpd in crude production, irrespective of oil prices, is crucial for ensuring the budget remains feasible,” he stated.
He noted that since the current administration took office, crude oil production has risen from 1.1 million bpd to 2.2 million bpd, and at times even reached 2.8 million bpd. This trajectory, he argued, demonstrates that sustaining 2.2 million bpd is achievable with consistent efforts to increase daily output.
Aduloju also introduced “The Arc of the Possible,” NESG’s blueprint for advancing Nigeria’s economic development. He reiterated that the 2.2 million bpd target was realistic, aligning with NESG’s strategic approach to unlocking growth opportunities.
According to reports, “The Arc of the Possible” reinforces NESG’s dedication to implementing practical solutions aimed at fostering prosperity through clear objectives across key sectors in the short to medium term.
Expanding on the broader economic benefits, Aduloju highlighted that reaching the production target would positively influence the foreign exchange market by increasing foreign earnings. He added that it would further support government initiatives in deregulating and liberalising the downstream sector while strengthening regulatory oversight.
However, he cautioned that political stability would be vital for sustaining crude oil output at this level. He urged the government to take swift action to restore stability in Rivers State and continue investing in security measures, given their importance to Nigeria’s oil production and overall economic performance.
“Effective implementation of stabilisation policies could propel Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 5.5 per cent in 2025,” he stated.
Aduloju referenced an NESG report titled “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond,” which acknowledges government efforts to tackle cross-sectoral challenges.
The report anticipates that an improved electricity supply and better fuel availability will reduce disruptions for businesses, particularly for Nano, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (NMSMEs), ultimately boosting productivity and overall economic growth.
“Additionally, greater access to foreign exchange will support manufacturing, a sector reliant on imported raw materials and intermediate goods,” he said.
He emphasised that resolving challenges in agriculture—such as financing, storage, warehousing, and logistics—would further enhance sectoral performance. He also reaffirmed that the oil and gas industry remains vital, not just for economic expansion but as a major contributor to foreign exchange reserves, external economic stability, and government revenue.
Moreover, Aduloju projected that stabilisation policies aimed at tackling power supply issues and reducing production costs would lead to growth in the manufacturing sector.
The NESG report also forecasts a decline in inflation to 24.7 per cent, provided that optimal stabilisation measures are implemented, signalling an improvement in Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability.
Aduloju stressed that better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies would be essential in achieving this reduction in inflation. He noted that a relatively stable foreign exchange market—driven by increased forex supply and a decrease in speculative demand—would play a key role in curbing inflationary pressures.
“The expected boost in productivity across major sectors, especially agriculture, should significantly contribute to easing inflation in 2025.
“Increasing agricultural output will enhance food availability, address supply shortages, and help moderate rising food prices, which are a major driver of inflation in Nigeria.
“Furthermore, improved security in key food-producing regions will ensure better access to farmland and supply chains, further stabilising food costs,” he concluded.
