Mounting challenges call for policy rethink
Nigeria faces a period of mounting socio-economic pressure, as policy reversals, institutional weaknesses, and longstanding governance issues converge to test the resilience of Africa’s most populous nation.
Often regarded as a country of vast potential, Nigeria now contends with multiple development challenges, with a significant portion of its population living in conditions of hardship and uncertainty. Hopes for prosperity, prominent at independence, have become harder to realise amid economic difficulties and questions around policy effectiveness.
In 2018, Nigeria was reported to have surpassed India in the number of people living in extreme poverty, with 86.7 million citizens classified in that category. By 2022, this figure had increased to 133 million, based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and international development agencies.
Poverty in Nigeria is multidimensional, encompassing not just income deprivation but also limited access to healthcare, education, sanitation, and physical security.
The situation worsened in 2024, following the implementation of major economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and currency devaluation. According to the World Bank, these measures, introduced without adequate support systems, pushed an estimated seven million more Nigerians into poverty.
Public figures have voiced concern over the trajectory. At an academic forum in the United States, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, raised comparisons between Nigeria and countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, suggesting Nigeria’s developmental progress has been slow. His remarks were met with criticism from sections of the political elite, who viewed them as overly negative.
One of the stark indicators of economic stress lies in the disconnect between income levels and living costs. The international poverty line of $2.15 per day, which equals roughly ¦ 3,495, casts doubt on the viability of the proposed national minimum wage of ¦ 70,000 in meeting basic needs, even for employed individuals.
A closer look at national statistics shows that more than three-quarters of rural dwellers and nearly half of Nigeria’s urban population live below the poverty line. Inflation is currently above 24 percent, reducing the value of household earnings and making basic goods less accessible.
Dr Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, has expressed concern over the country’s economic performance. At a summit in Lagos, he noted that, by some measures, Nigerians today are poorer than they were in 1960. He pointed to a drop in per capita GDP from $1,847 at independence to approximately $824 today.
These economic indicators also manifest in social outcomes. Over 25 million people are said to face food insecurity. Nigeria ranks second globally for child stunting, with 37 percent of children under five suffering from chronic malnutrition.
The health system remains under strain. Nigeria accounts for roughly 28 percent of all maternal deaths worldwide, while diseases such as malaria and typhoid persist in many communities due to gaps in access to affordable medical care.
In education, over 20 million children are currently out of school, many of whom are engaged in labour or early marriage, perpetuating long-term inequality. Additionally, over three million people have been displaced internally due to violence, environmental degradation, or lack of institutional protection.
Insecurity continues to affect large parts of the country. Banditry, terrorism, kidnappings, and piracy flourish in areas where state infrastructure is limited and unemployment remains high. These conditions have contributed to a climate of uncertainty and rising disaffection.
Government programmes aimed at addressing these problems, such as palliative food distributions and short-term cash interventions, have drawn criticism for being insufficient. Observers have also pointed to a perceived gap between the struggles of ordinary Nigerians and the lifestyle of the political class.
Comparative examples from other countries offer possible insights. Egypt, for instance, took a phased approach to fuel subsidy reforms, which helped manage the economic impact on vulnerable groups. In contrast, Nigeria’s reforms have been more abrupt, with limited accompanying support.
Infrastructure remains another area of concern. Despite a population exceeding 230 million, the national power grid supplies only around 4,000 megawatts, constraining productivity and economic diversification.
Analysts suggest that substantial policy reform will be needed to address the current challenges. Some have called for a restructured federal system that allows regional governments greater autonomy to develop based on their local strengths.
Calls for economic diversification are widespread. Agriculture, if modernised and supported with investment, could help reduce Nigeria’s annual food import bill, which stands at approximately $6 billion. A shift toward a technology-driven economy and expanded industrial capacity could also provide pathways to job creation.
In healthcare, there are appeals for broader coverage under the National Health Insurance Scheme, which currently serves only about five percent of the population. Reintroducing initiatives such as school feeding programmes could help combat both malnutrition and educational exclusion. Infrastructure in rural areas also requires investment to reduce regional disparities.
Anti-corruption efforts are seen as critical. Proposals include implementing real-time transparency systems, open budgeting tools, and independent audits to improve public trust and accountability. Security strategies, too, may benefit from better intelligence operations, community policing models, and international cooperation.
To address the ongoing brain drain, several experts argue that Nigeria must create better employment opportunities, invest in education, and offer a sense of dignity and future for its youth.
The phrase “Nigeria First” has become a popular refrain, but analysts stress that it must be matched by coherent planning, consistent implementation, and measurable outcomes.
The National Assembly, in particular, is being urged to enhance its oversight role, moving beyond ceremonial functions to hold institutions accountable. Without significant changes in governance and policy, Nigeria may continue to face deepening challenges that undermine national development.
