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Life expectancy and economic situations of Nigeria

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By Adémólá Òrúnbon

Life expectancy is a measure of the length of life expected to be lived by an individual at birth. Improvement of life expectancy to at least 70 years by 2020 and above is one of Nigeria’s health policy targets. Life expectancy is frequently utilised and analysed in the composition of demographic data for the countries of the world, for the attainment of mortality experience, and for more reliable international comparisons.

Indeed, life expectancy is very crucial to the developing worlds who are earnestly striving for achieving socio-economic progress through investing significantly in social sectors like health, education, sanitation, environmental management, and sustainability.

In Nigeria, as in other developing countries, variations in morbidity and mortality have been associated with a wide variety of measures of socio-economic status, including per capita GDP, fertility rate, adult illiteracy rate, per capita calories intake, health care expenditure, access to potable drinking water, urban inhabitants, unemployment rate and the nominal exchange rate.

In fact, over the last decade, several investigators have documented the stagnation or possible decrease in life expectancy among Nigeria residents on the bottom rungs of the socio-economic ladder. Recent research has found that, at least in some groups of Nigerians, deaths due to drug overdose have increased dramatically in recent years and that this increase is largely responsible for the overall stagnation of historic trends toward increased life expectancy.

Even in the years to come, life expectancy of the common man and middle class in Nigeria tends to also decrease dramatically due to the increasing population, but high cost of foodstuff, drugs and many more in the markets. This resulted in the increase of production of fake drugs which litter the markets, recently, National Agency for Food & Drugs Administration And Control (NAFDAC) alerted Nigerians to be wary of fake drugs which are being distributed by unscrupulous elements.

Some researchers seeking to explain these death-rate increases focus on an increasing supply of illegal drugs and prescriptions for pain medications by medical providers. Others use the unifying construct of “deaths of despair” to describe deaths due to suicide and the abuse of opioids, alcohol, and other drugs.

While despair can have multiple origins. A commonly cited source is an economic downturn and its effect on expectations about future job prospects and on the self-perception of individuals as successful providers for their families. This study examines the link between mortality of older, working aged (45 to 64) Nigeria adults and local economic shifts to evaluate the role of job prospects in various causes of death and their related mortality trends.

We do this by comparing mortality trends in geographic locations that experienced strong economic downturns related to their changing industrial composition of employment to trends in locations that have either benefited from those industrial changes or experienced less of a downturn.

First, we test whether economic conditions are associated with mortality at all, regardless of the mechanism. Second, we test whether several specific causes of death are correlated with such economic conditions. One hypothesis suggested by the deaths of despair construct is that suicides and substance abuse will increase most when economic conditions worsen.

Another, suggested by a separate line of research, is that poor economic prospects introduce stress leading to harmful biological effects and several types of chronic disease. Different from the deaths of the despair approach, this “weathering” hypothesis predicts increased mortality from stress-related chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer as an outcome of economic downturns. While these hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they do suggest different pathways for understanding the relationship between the economy and health and mortality. Separating deaths by cause is critical to understanding the relative importance of each pathway.

However, when we look at the relationships between economic downturns and death rates at the local area level, we find that while distress in local area economies does predict increased mortality for stress-related chronic diseases, consistent with the weathering hypothesis, it predicts decreased mortality from suicides, opioids, and other substance abuse. The latter finding suggests caution in the application of the construct of despair in explaining recent mortality patterns.

And, indeed, one of the tools that we use to measure the growth of an economy is the Gross Domestic Product, and it is very clear that as far as the GDP is concerned, Nigeria is not doing very well. We have to be very open and honest to ourselves, Nigeria has not collapsed as a country; we thank God for that. But as far as growing the economy is concerned, I think Nigeria is largely struggling.

I don’t think the state of the economy is something to cheer about; I think by all parameters, if you compare Nigeria to its peers in terms of where they were before and where they are now, I can only say that we have performed sub-optimally. Docile followership, ineffective and compromised leadership and structural flaws in the economy have produced sub-optimal results.

Look at your life expectancy; it is usually dropping on a daily basis due to the lackadaisical and non-challant attitude of our leaders at the helm of our affairs. Look at labour productivity; we are -0.04 percent, while many of some countries are doing three to five percent labour productivity growth. Look at power output; while our population has grown by three to four percent, our power output has declined by over five to six percent per annum.

All we need to do is to accept that we are not as rich as we think we are, and we have to give up some things; we have to differentiate between what we need and what we want; and we have to give up some things and focus on the others. If you prioritise, you are likely to achieve better results.

Some of the reasons responsible for the struggle are clearly known. One of them is insecurity; the insecurity in the country assumes an alarming proportion and because of the high degree of insecurity, a huge chunk of money that would have been used to boost other areas of the economy is being diverted to take care of the insecurity. Another thing that has happened as a result of the insecurity is that the level of agricultural production we would have been getting from our human capital has dwindled.

When you look at the killings in some parts of Nigeria, especially around the Middle Belt, North-East and other hotspots, communities where we have farmers and fishermen were mostly affected. Nigeria has lost so much in the area of food security; so, to that extent, you can see clearly that the insecurity has caused so much damage to our economic security due to lack of proper food security.

When you look at what is happening if you talk about the debt profile of the country, somehow you can also tie it to insecurity, but we also have issues with our current economic planners. It is one thing to be a leader, it is another thing to be an economic manager. I wouldn’t want to say our leaders are not organised, but I will be bold to say that as far as economic planning is concerned, I am still struggling to see the relationship between the quality of the current leaders that we have and the direction of the economy.

The economy still suffers profound productivity issues because of the huge infrastructure deficit. The growth of population and economic activities has considerably outpaced the growth of infrastructure provision. This is a major failure of several governments, especially in the last two decades. That is why the Nigerian private sector has serious competitiveness problems resulting from high operating costs.

Òrúnbon, a journalist, poet and public affairs analyst, writes in Lagos State amd can be reached via: [email protected] or 08034493944 and 08029301122.

Opinion

Moving beyond celebration: Workers’ day and the imperative for a living wage in Nigeria

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

With Workers’ Day, drawing near, Nigerian workers eagerly await any news regarding a potential rise in the minimum wage. However, recent statements attributed to the President of the Trade Union Congress hint that such an announcement might not occur on that day. This delay disappoints many workers grappling with economic challenges. The government should acknowledge this disappointment and provide a transparent timeline for any pronouncement and subsequent implementation of adjustments to the minimum wage.

The existing minimum wage of thirty thousand naira is glaringly inadequate. To

contextualise, individuals living below 1.9 dollars per day, as per World Bank standards, are deemed to be in poverty. With a minimum wage equivalent to roughly one thousand naira per day, individuals fall significantly below this poverty threshold. Sustaining oneself, let alone supporting a family, with such meager income is incredibly challenging. Essentially, the current minimum wage

sentences individuals to a life of absolute poverty, making it nearly impossible to fulfill basic needs and aspirations.

Evaluating the fairness of employers towards Nigerian workers presents a nuanced scenario. In the private sector, compliance with minimum wage regulations is common; meeting legal requirements. However, some employers exploit the low minimum wage by offering salaries just above this threshold, taking advantage of high unemployment rates. This often results in highly qualified individuals receiving inadequate compensation for their skills and contributions. As for the government’s role, there is room for improvement. Recognising workers as the backbone of society, establishing a reasonable national minimum wage is crucial. When workers are not adequately compensated, it not only affects their individual welfare but also has widespread societal implications. Thus, there’s a clear expectation for the government to prioritize fair wages and working conditions for Nigerian workers, acknowledging their indispensable role in maintaining the nation’s prosperity.

Prior to the current administration, instances occurred where state governments consistently failed to pay worker salaries on time, with some only providing partial payments. Such neglect towards worker welfare is disheartening, with reports indicating tragic consequences such as workers resorting to suicide out of frustration and children dropping out of school due to financial strain. These outcomes underscore the severity of the situation. If research were conducted, there might be a correlation between this neglect towards worker welfare and the increase in insecurity levels. When individuals of all ages face dire financial circumstances due to unpaid wages, some may resort to criminal activities as a means of survival. While this doesn’t justify criminal behavior, it’s crucial to acknowledge the pressures driving individuals towards illegal actions. Financial pressure stands out in the fraud triangle, contributing significantly to fraudulent behavior. Addressing issues related to worker salaries is urgent to alleviate financial burdens on individuals and mitigate associated societal impacts, such as heightened insecurity. Timely payment of wages is essential for the well-being of workers and fostering stability and prosperity across society.

While advocating for a minimum wage of one hundred thousand naira might appear ideal, determining the appropriate minimum wage is complex. It involves considering factors such as the cost of living, inflation rates, and the financial capacity of employers, including governments at all levels. While pushing for a substantial increase may seem appealing, acknowledging economic realities and feasibility is crucial. State governments, often citing limited funds, must prioritize

workers’ welfare while maintaining fiscal responsibility and sustainability. Boosting internally generated revenue through initiatives like enhancing tax collection, investing in infrastructure, and promoting entrepreneurship could address this challenge. Strengthening revenue streams enables state governments to handle the costs associated with higher wages while investing in critical services and development projects. Achieving a balance between fair wages for workers and fiscal prudence necessitates collaboration among government, businesses, and labour unions to establish an equitable and sustainable minimum wage for all stakeholders involved.

I have faith in President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s commitment to provide workers with not just a new minimum wage, but a wage that will enable them to live with dignity even though if it may take longer than expected. President Bola Tinubu has demonstrated a strong dedication to good governance, and I am confident that he will prioritize the welfare of workers as part of his vision for a prosperous Nigeria. Moreover, establishing a robust mechanism for enforcing the national minimum wage is paramount.

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Opinion

Osun: Where is Gov. Adeleke’s phoney N16bn digital economy project?

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By Waheed Adekunle

It is appalling that in the last 14 months of unveiling the phoney digital economy policy by the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke led-PDP government in Osun State, nothing meaningful has been recorded in the sector thus far.

There is no doubting the fact that the current administration in the state has been failing consistently in delivering its electoral promises to the good people of the state particularly in the area of digital economy which was overblown beyond proportion and boastfully promised to turn around the fortune of the state in the technology world.

There are indices suggesting that the initiative has failed woefully like many others previously initiated by the incumbent government.

Recall that Governor Adeleke had on March 6, 2023, unveiled the state’s digital economy policies and flagged off laying of a broadband fibre optic project worth N16 billion purportedly claimed to cover 64 kilometres of the state and place landmarks of the state on Google maps.

Governor Adeleke who signed the Memorandum of Understanding with Oodua Infraco to commence immediate deployment of Fibre Optics across the state boasted that with the new National Broadband policy, free connectivity would be returned to schools and health centres but till today, nothing has been achieved in that respect.

In his words: “This government is waiving payment for Telecom Right of Way in return for free connectivity to our schools and health centres when the broadband project is completed. My good people of Osun State, we are also harnessing the many talents Osun has in the tech sector. We are putting selected Osun tech leaders from all over the world into an advisory board. Today, I am inaugurating the First Digital Economy Advisory Board with 15 members. Their task is to support the state in our dream of transforming Osun into a digital economy state.

“Permit me to commend my team for their wonderful performance on these landmark initiatives. I appreciate the team from the Ministry of Innovations, Science and Technology as well as specialists within the ICT Taskforce. You are consequently directed to work on the next phase which is the commencement of implementation of the policies and the initiatives.”

Anyway, it is not surprising that the incumbent government didn’t come up with anything tangible since the inauguration of the ‘non-existent fibre project’ other than the failure which it had also recorded in all sectors as manifested in the failed Imole Youth Corps; failed O’MEAL Scheme, failed borehole project, and failed attempt to remove the Chief Judge of Osun among others.

Saying lies, falsehoods and propaganda are the trademarks of the current administration is to say the least as it has now become glaring to all and sundry that like Ismail Omipidan said last year, “Osun under Governor Ademola Adeleke is being run in fraudulent claims.”

It would be recalled that the Adeleke government which started on a vendetta mission aimed at blackmailing and silencing the opposition has been witch-hunting suspected members of the All Progressives Congress, APC, instead of facing governance and this has shown clearly the real mission of the government.

Also recall that the Adeleke government started on a zero plan for the state. This was apparently noticed when the governor asked members of the Transition Committee to fashion out what his government could do within the first six months as this practically revealed the lack of capacity and preparedness in the current administration.

One would also wonder how a government which claimed to have campaigned vigorously to win the party’s governorship ticket and subsequently emerged governor would be asking a committee to design what was expected of him to do in six months! This shows a high level of his unpreparedness and that of his team for effective governance of Osun.

Back to the digital economy bogus claims, since the launch of the project precisely 13 months ago, why has Osun not been placed on world Google map as earlier promised by the Adeleke government? What has been the challenges impeding the project? Where have the humongous funds for the questionable project gone into? Who is the contractor handling the project if it exists at all?

Until these salient questions are answered satisfactorily, the government would continue to be held accountable. We should not forget that the masses are watching and taking records of events as they unfold under the Adeleke government. They are awaiting the day of reckoning.

May God heal our land.

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Opinion

Adeleke v Aregbesola: The price of political treachery

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By Dr Jimoh Olorede

Preparatory to the July 2022 governorship election in Osun State, and since thereafter, until recently, the ex-governor and immediate-past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola, a top beneficiary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, as a two-term commissioner in Lagos, two-term governor in Osun, and Minister consecutively, suddenly became an abettor and a conspiratorial ally to an opposition gubernatorial candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, against his party, APC, and his successor, Adegboyega Oyetola, who served as his Chief of Staff, succeeded him as governor, and was seeking a reelection! The gubernatorial election was held, Adeleke won, Oyetola lost, but subsequently appointed as minister, while Aregbesola left the political stage as minister and got back home!

Oyetola’s open and obvious sin for which he must be crucified, and was actually dealt with, at least, in the myopic estimation of Aregbesola and his co-conspirators, was ‘reviewing and reversing his Schools Reclassification Policy’, by which Oyetola actually rekindled people’s hope, and what they perceived as a retrieval of their ‘lost glory and education origin’, with his return and reversal of the changed public schools’ founder-cum-original names and unique uniforms to the status quo. This happens when a government is consent of the governed.

His (Oyetola’s) hidden, how-do-we-say-it sin for which he must be punished was what Ogbeni would term ‘deployment of his magic wand’ with which he was able to pay full salaries of the state workers, which Aregbesola could not, or perhaps did not, given the inherited jugular-strangling and throat-squeezing debt into which he plunged the state. These were Oyetola’s obvious and hidden sins for which the ‘political structure and APC house’ built in Osun by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, through Aregbesola and others, must be demolished and totally rent asunder.

Since the creation of Osun State, ten people have served as governor, with four military governors and six civilian governors. While the first (military) governor, Leo Segun Ajiborisha, served the shortest term of four months, from 27 August 1991 to 3 January, 1992, Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola so far, served the longest term of eight years as governor, from November 27, 2010 to November 27, 2018. However, within this period of eight years of the longest-serving governor, so many things had happened in and to the state. One of those things was the changing and renaming of the state from Osun State to “State of Osun.” The ex-governor must have seen an error which none of his seven predecessors who had ruled the state before him could see.

He also created and introduced a different state Anthem, Logo, Crest and Flag. Apart from the humongous loan repayment, Oyetola also inherited these “Aregbesola-personified legacies” about which he had to be silent, as it was a moral burden, and rather maintained and sustained the status quo throughout his administration, feigning pretense as if he didn’t see anything wrong just to avoid crisis or rift with Aregbe.

Alas, Governor Ademola Adeleke eventually betrayed his ‘mission-fellow,’ an abettor and co-conspirator, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who maliciously joined forces with him against his own party and successor. He has obliterated all Ogbeni’s known legacies in the state. No sooner had the governor taken the oath of office than he started repealing Aregbesola’s legacies right at the venue of his inauguration. While delivering his inaugural speech, governor Ademola Adeleke publicly said: “Consequently, I hereby issue the following directives which will be backed up with appropriate Executive Orders.

“. . . Three, and immediate reversal to the constitutionally recognised name of our state – Osun State. All government insignia, correspondences, and signage should henceforth, I repeat, should henceforth reflect ‘Osun State, rather than ‘State of Osun,’ which is unknown to the Nigerian Constitution.”

Nigerian politics is a treacherous game. There’s no permanent friend or enemy in politics, as politicians deceitfully use and dump each other. Adeleke knew Aregbesola was smart; he consequently cynically stooped to outwit his smartness, and Ogbeni unwittingly misconstrued his betraying kindergarten dancing posture for stupidity.

Also, while Oyetola maintained and sustained the legacy, and retained the nomenclature “OYES” (Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme) as birthed and christened by Aregbesola, governor Ademola Adeleke dissolved the OYES Corps to be renamed after his ‘Imole Youth.’ The governor, through his spokesperson, condemned what he referred to as ‘content of the programme’ which, according to him, turned people to grass-cutters and market sweepers. Similarly, on many occasions, I have heard Adeleke-led PDP condemn Aregbesola’s government in the media, bemoaning that he failed to complete any road in eight years, and so on.

Eventually, the scenario turned out to be Adeleke paying Aregbe in his own coins! Based on malice and ill-will, and for his immediate ego satisfaction, Aregbesola sacrificed his party’s future gains, jeopardising the fortune of many, thinking he was ‘dealing’ with, and whipping Oyetola with political lashes. Paradoxically, as Ogbeni whips, Oyetola laughs while many, including Ogbeni himself, weep as direct recipients of the whipping! As a Yoruba adage says “Papa npara e, o lo np’aja” meaning a tick, like a sheep-ked, is unwittingly ruining itself thinking is undoing its host-dog by sucking its blood.

In June 2023, Ogbeni Aregbesola while speaking at the palace of Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji Larooye II, after he had returned to Osun State consequent upon the expiration of his term as minister, said “I was born in Ikare Akoko. It’s surprising that a boy born in Ikare Akoko became a commissioner in Lagos and governor in Osun. That’s the work of God. He used Asiwaju to lead me to the path of success. I thank God who brought me to Lagos through the assistance of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. He is the architect of my success.” He added that Tinubu directed him to come and take over “my fatherland – Osun State, that it was my next place of assignment.” Can you imagine, Aregbesola saying this after the deed (a grave damage) had been done! This is exactly how traitors behave – joining forces with conspirators to betray their benefactors.

Dr. Olorede, a strategic communication analyst, writes via [email protected]/08111841887

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