IMF forecasts global economic growth at 6%

By Kayode Tokede

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted global economic growth of six per cent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 per cent in 2022.

IMF disclosed this in its latest economic outlook, stating that “Global prospects remain highly uncertain, one year into the pandemic.

“New virus mutations and the accumulating human toll raise concerns, even as growing vaccine coverage lifts sentiment. Economic recoveries are diverging across countries and sectors, reflecting variation in pandemic-induced disruptions and the extent of policy support.

“The outlook depends not just on the outcome of the battle between the virus and vaccines, it also hinges on how effectively economic policies deployed under high uncertainty can limit lasting damage from this unprecedented crisis.”

IMF noted that although the global economy would grow at six per cent, the projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

“Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 per cent in 2022. The projections for 2021 and 2022 are stronger than in the October 2020 WEO. The upward revision reflects additional financial support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility.

“High uncertainty surrounds this outlook, related to the path of the pandemic, the effectiveness of policy support to provide a bridge to vaccine-powered normalization, and the evolution of financial conditions.”

According to the statement, “Although the contraction of activity in 2020 was unprecedented in living memory, extraordinary policy support prevented even worse economic outcomes. One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible, but prospects remain highly uncertain.”