Global oil prices to peak $380 per barrel in 2050 — Russian Lukoil
By Uthman Salami
Oil prices are set to exceed $100 per barrel in all three scenarios for global energy developments through 2050, with inflation and carbon prices potentially sending oil to $380 a barrel in 2050.
This revelation was made by Russia’s oil producer, Lukoil who said this on Friday during its long-term energy outlook.
According to oilprices.com, the company assumed an aggressive phase-out of oil and gas and the most efficient and rapid development of renewable energy and electric transport.
In the scenario created by Russia’ oil giant, the world’s focus is on climate goals, leading economies reaching carbon neutrality by 2050, and the global energy and industry undergoing a radical transformation.
The company said, “Inflation may reduce the accessibility of energy for consumers” in 2050, noting that in the Transformation scenario, oil could hit $380 a barrel in 2050, with inflation representing the largest increase in oil prices, followed by some $70 additional price per barrel because of carbon prices.
The other two scenarios Lukoil discussed in its “Global Energy Perspectives to 2050” report are the Evolution scenario with the current international energy policy and national programs, considering existing technological capabilities, and the Equilibrium scenario assuming a balance between achieving climate goals and economic development.
It projected that evenen in the least climate-aggressive scenario, oil prices would exceed $100 in 2050, at $128 per barrel.
In the Equilibrium scenario, the price of oil in 2050 is expected at nearly $200—at $197 per barrel, with inflation accounting for most of the higher price.
The oil company further said, underinvestment can lead to a steady shortage of supply in the market and an increase in price volatility.
In his remark, the President and CEO of Lukoil Vagit Alekperov said, “It is obvious that the forecasts made at the beginning of the pandemic emphasizing that the world had already passed the peak of oil consumption in 2019, proved to be wrong.
“On the contrary, we risk to face a global energy shortage due to years of underinvestment in the industry because of price shocks and ambition to stop using fossil fuels as soon as possible.”
Alekperov is the latest oil industry executive warning of increased volatility and higher oil prices due to insufficient investment in new supply to offset declining output from maturing oilfields.
