Global oil demand climbs in September, exceeding pre-COVID levels — JODI Data

Global oil demand climbed seasonally in September to the second-highest level of the year and nearly 1 mb/d above September 2019 levels, according to new data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Demand growth was driven by diesel consumption in China and gasoline demand in the US.

Meanwhile, global crude production declined slightly by 84 kb/d.

While markets tightened compared to August, global inventories of crude and refined products climbed counter seasonally by 3.7 mb. Global inventories remain 442 mb below the five-year average.

Global demand was at 101 per cent of pre-COVID levels in September, while crude production was at 99 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.

The data also showed that Russian oil production slid slightly to 9.99 mb/d and is down 270 kb/d from pre-invasion levels. Meanwhile, Russian gas production increased slightly for the second consecutive month but was still more than 30 percent below March levels and at a five-year seasonal low.

EU+UK natural gas inventories increased by 8.7 bcm in September to stand at 89 per cent full at the end of the month.

The JODI oil and gas databases were updated on Thursday with more than 50 countries reporting data for the latest month of September 2022. The September data submissions account for more than 70 per cent of both global oil demand and global crude production.

Highlights for September oil data:

Saudi Arabia

Crude production decreased by 10 kb/d to 11.04 mb/d.

Crude exports increased by 120 kb/d to 7.72 mb/d – a 29-month high.

Direct burn of crude oil decreased by 142 kb/d to 522 kb/d.

Crude inventories increased by 0.78 mb and product inventories fell by 2.39 mb.

Russia

Crude production fell by 7 kb/d to 9.99 mb/d.

NGL production increased by 183 kb/d to 1.00 mb/d.

Refinery intake fell by 56 kb/d to 5.56 mb/d.

China

Demand increased by 459 kb/d, but it was still 453 kb/d below year-ago levels.

Crude imports increased by 290 kb/d to 9.82 mb/d, but were still down 197 kb/d y/y.

Total product exports increased by 234 kb/d to a 15-month high.

United States

Crude production increased by 72 kb/d and is up 1.13 mb/d from year-ago levels.

Total product demand increased by 570 kb/d in September and was up 1.03 mb/d from year-ago levels.

Crude oil closing stocks fell by 18.9 mb to the lowest level recorded in JODI.

Product closing stocks increased by 34.1 mb.

Highlights for September natural gas data:

Natural gas demand was at a five-year seasonal high and stood at 6 per cent above year-ago levels. Meanwhile, gas production was 3 per cent below last year’s levels.

Russian gas production increased for the second consecutive month but remains at a 5-year seasonal low and 30 percent below March levels.

EU+UK gas consumption was at a 5-year seasonal low in September. The group’s LNG imports were nearly double from a year ago. Gas inventories increased by 8.7 bcm to stand 89 per cent full at the end of September.

Gas inventories outside of EU+UK increased by 11.7 bcm month-on-month but were still 10.9 bcm below the 5-year average.

The full JODI oil and gas database will be available today at noon BST and can be viewed at jodidb.org or jodidata.org. The next update will be on Monday, December 19th with data through October 2022.