Global economic activity may bounce back before end of 2021—Report

The global economy could fully bounce back before the end of 2021 in confidence, orders, employment and spending, the latest report from the Association of Chartered and Certified Accountants (ACCA) and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) has revealed.

The survey of 1,000 senior accountants and finance professional across the world recorded the biggest jump in economic confidence in the first quarter of 2021, as against the previous quarters.

The balance of those more optimistic minus those less optimistic increased by 26 points in this survey.

The GECS is consistent with the view that the global economy stands a good chance of reaching its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year.

The results for Africa show a region reporting improved levels of economic confidence, but at more modest levels than other regions such as South Asia and Asia-Pacific shows strong results for confidence.

“North America has reported the strongest results, with an economy likely to achieve growth of more than 6 per cent in 2021. Orders grew globally, apart from in Africa, which was the only region to see a fall in the orders index, although other activity indicators of employment and capital spending both rose,” the report stated.

Head of ACCA Nigeria, Thomas Isibor noted that “Different levels of economic prospects in the largely optimistic global picture are attributed to three factors that heavily influence the economy – the rate of vaccinations, the amount of government fiscal stimulus and savings banked by individuals during restrictions and lockdowns.

“The GECS results for Africa show that previous experience of pandemics and a relatively young population prevented dramatic falls in output last year. But negligible progress on vaccination plus a continued absence of foreign tourists, suggests there will be no strong recovery in many countries across the continent. Commodity exporters will fare better as prices and demand have rebounded.”

Also, Michael Taylor, chief economist at ACCA, highlights that “This survey paints a much brighter picture with confidence jumping by the most in the history of the survey. The approval and deployment of several effective vaccines have dramatically improved the prospects of an end to the COVID crisis. A very large US fiscal stimulus has also boosted global economic prospects this year.”