Cedigaz Outlook 2019 highlights that natural gas has a crucial role to play to support the energy transition and meet all targets of the NDCs. The report forecasts that demand for natural gas will grow by 40 per cent from 2017 to 2040 (+ 1.4 per cent per year), with Asia leading the growth. Gas demand projections in most emerging Asian markets have been revised upward compared to previous Outlook.
The future expansion of natural gas in the energy mix is driven by the competitiveness and abundance of gas resources in gas-rich markets (North America, Russia, Middle East, Mozambique), which will expand LNG export capacity.
Positive developments of unconventional gas, especially in the US, and LNG markets will continue to reshape natural gas supplies.
It added that the international LNG trade will grow by more than three per cent per year to 2040 and Asia-driven long-distance (interregional) LNG trade will grow the fastest (+ 4.9 per cent per year). LNG’s share of net interregional gas trade will rise from 39 per cent in 2017 to 60 per cent in 2040.
The US is predicted to lead the global expansion of gas and LNG supply and will have a growing influence on the global gas balance and international pricing.
Operating and under construction LNG liquefaction plants will be sufficient to cover the anticipated LNG demand until 2022.
The report also expects the LNG market should remain well-supplied until at least the middle of the next decade, assuming likely additional FIDs (including Qatar expansion projects) in the near future.