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British Pound Sterling outshines global currencies as Naira struggles to stabilize

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By Sodiq Adelakun

The British pound sterling has been outperforming most of the world’s currencies, including the Nigerian naira, despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) aggressive monetary policies.

Recent reports from the CBN have indicated that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have shown a keen interest in Nigerian debt, purchasing a substantial portion of the N1.053 trillion worth of bills with maturities ranging from three to twelve months.

This high demand, driven by attractive yields, is seen as a positive response to the CBN’s efforts to draw in dollar inflows to support the naira.

Nevertheless, the naira continues to struggle in the unofficial market, where it is currently trading at 2,078 to the pound.

This rate hovers close to its all-time low of 2,414 against the pound, signaling ongoing concerns about the Nigerian currency’s stability.

On the other hand, the British economy is demonstrating unexpected resilience, prompting traders to anticipate that the Bank of England may begin to ease its monetary policy as early as August.

This expectation contrasts with the anticipated policy cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which are expected to occur in June.

Amid these developments, the Economist Intelligence Unit has suggested that the CBN may need to resort to foreign borrowing to preserve the naira’s value and fulfill its foreign exchange obligations.

The organisation’s analysis suggests that such borrowing is essential for rebuilding the CBN’s reserves, clearing the backlog of unmet foreign exchange requests, and restoring investor confidence in the Nigerian economy.

However, it is projected that these measures may only materialise by the end of 2024, indicating a potentially prolonged period of economic adjustment for Nigeria.

“Our view is that foreign borrowing is necessary to rebuild the CBN’s buffers, fully clear a backlog of unfulfilled foreign exchange orders, and restore confidence,” the statement read. Likely, this will only be possible by the end of 2024.

While confidence in the naira remains fragile, the British economy appears to be recovering, and inflation is declining.

The data mix is improving, which supports GBP, and UK rates are expected to stay higher for longer. As a result, the pound has benefited from this, with GBP/NGN reaching a multi-month high this month.

Last week, the pound reached its highest level in seven months and had its best week since November versus the dollar. Data in the upcoming days may contribute to consolidating those gains and supporting the thesis that the UK economy is recovering.

The British economy is expected to grow in January after a slight contraction in December, according to monthly gross domestic product data.

Industrial production is expected to advance by 0.7 percent annually in January, which is a little faster than in December.

The UK escaped the severe recession that many had projected for 2023, but the economy remained stagnant as a result of aggressive interest rate hikes that raised the benchmark rate to 5.25 percent.

The cost of food, energy, and mortgage payments all skyrocketed, placing severe strain on consumers, and business confidence fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis.

However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted last month that there had been “encouraging signs” on the major employment and service price indicators while emphasising that policymakers are still seeking proof that the current trend can continue.

Furthermore, there are many reasons to exercise caution. Concerns about the government announcing large giveaways before elections later this year have been expressed by some investors, particularly in light of the Conservatives’ significant lead over opposition Labour in the polls.

After the administration of Liz Truss attempted to spur growth with unfunded tax cuts in 2022, markets went into meltdown.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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