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Banks face potential shake-up as new report flags capitalisation concerns

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…17 banks at risk with proposed 15-fold capital increase

…Expert calls for incentive-based approach in banking sector reform

By Sodiq Adelakun

A recent report by Ernst and Young has shed light on the potential ramifications of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) contemplation of raising the minimum capital requirement for banks.

Titled “Navigating the Horizon: Charting the Course for Banks amid Plans for Recapitalisation,” the report paints a vivid picture of the challenges and opportunities facing Nigeria’s financial institutions.

According to the findings, a staggering 17 out of the 24 existing Deposit Money Banks could find themselves teetering on the edge of viability if the capital requirement is increased by 15-fold, from the current N25 billion mark.

At the helm of this potential transformation is CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, who has articulated the apex bank’s ambition to fortify the banking sector’s capacity to bolster Nigeria’s aspirations of attaining a $1 trillion economy by 2026.

Currently, the capital base varies based on banking license type, with regional, national, and international license holders expected to maintain minimum capital bases of N10 billion, N25 billion, and N50 billion, respectively.

The proposed hike in the capital requirement harkens back to the CBN’s 2004 banking reform, a watershed moment that saw the capital base surge from N2 billion to N25 billion. This historic overhaul spurred a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, culminating in a significant reduction in the number of banks, from 89 to 25.

In recent months, a proactive response has been observed among some banking giants. FBN Holdings, Wema Bank, and Jaiz Bank have all proposed Rights Issues, while Fidelity Bank has announced plans to bolster its capital through a public offer and rights issue.

However, Ernst and Young’s report underscores the nuanced strategies that banks may need to adopt to weather the storm. While financial indicators suggest resilience and stability among Nigerian banks as of 2023, the looming specter of recapitalisation necessitates foresight and adaptability. Various avenues, from mergers and acquisitions to initial public offerings, placements, and retained earnings, are being explored as potential lifelines.

As the industry braces for potential upheaval reminiscent of the early 2000s, one thing remains clear: the Nigerian banking sector is on the precipice of transformation, poised to navigate the turbulent waters ahead with resilience and determination.

The report read partly, “The recent plan by the CBN to increase the capital base of banks could again lead to M&A activities but not as widespread as was the case in 2004/2005 given the relatively solid financial positions of the banks today as well as the occurrence of several M&A activities in the banking sector over the past 10 years.

“While the CBN governor did not indicate the magnitude of the proposed hike in the capital base, we have assumed what the proposed increment will be based on three different scenarios underpinned by current macroeconomic conditions. On the back of that, we were able to determine the number of banks (across the three licence types) that may fall below the new minimum capital thresholds.

“In a worst-case scenario, i.e., given a capital multiplier of 15, about 17 out of 24 banks would not meet the new minimum capital.”

The report noted that the plan to recapitalise banks was premised upon the recent devaluation of the naira in 2023.

It explained that the exchange rate as of 2005 during the last exercise in 2005 stood at N132.9/$ but the naira currently exchange for over N1400/$.

According to the firm, this implies that the recapitalisation may require a capital multiplier of 10 or more based on the exchange rate differentials.

“On this basis, a worst-case scenario given a 15x capital multiplier for 24 banks will be considered based on the type of banking licenses held. We have benchmarked the current capital of these banks against the current capital requirement and four recapitalization scenarios,” it noted.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, in an earlier interview with our correspondent, welcomed the move to increase banks’ capital base, adding that the current capital base was grossly inadequate.

He said, “The minimum capital requirements of the banking industry need to be reviewed in the light of the considerable loss of value amid depreciating domestic currency. During the banking consolidation of 2004, the minimum capital requirement for banks was raised from N2bn to N25bn. The revised capital requirement was an equivalent of $187m. Today, the same N25bn is the equivalent of just $32.5m.”

Meanwhile, Professor Uche Uwaleke, a distinguished figure in the field of Capital Market and President of the Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, has advocated for a nuanced approach that prioritises incentivisation over coercion.

Addressing concerns surrounding the potential recapitalisation drive, Professor Uwaleke underscored the importance of fostering a conducive environment for banks to bolster their capital bases.

While acknowledging the necessity of robust capitalisation to fuel ambitious economic goals, such as Nigeria’s aspiration to achieve a $1 trillion economy, he cautioned against replicating the coercive tactics employed during the last recapitalisation exercise in 2005.

In Professor Uwaleke’s view, incentivisation should take precedence over compulsion, offering banks the impetus to proactively enhance their capital reserves. He emphasised that many Deposit Money Banks were already taking proactive steps to fortify their capital bases in anticipation of regulatory changes.

This perspective highlights a shift in approach, advocating for a symbiotic relationship between regulatory imperatives and industry initiatives.

Money market

Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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