President Bola Tinubu has transmitted the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) to the House of Representatives for consideration and approval, laying the foundation for the 2026 federal budget.
Deputy Speaker, Benjamin Kalu read the President’s letter during Wednesday’s plenary session.
The policy documents were previously endorsed by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) at its meeting on December 3, 2025.
In his communication, Tinubu said the framework would guide the preparation of the 2026 national budget and urged the National Assembly to act swiftly on the submission. “The 2026 budget of the Federal Government will be prepared based on the parameters and fiscal assumptions of the approved 2026–2028 MTEF and FSP,” the President wrote.
The framework outlines Nigeria’s economic assumptions, revenue outlook, and spending priorities for the next three years. The FEC adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, while fiscal planning will be based on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd. The oil price benchmark is set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512/$. Inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.
Based on these assumptions, federation revenue for 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion, of which the federal government is projected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion. Total federal revenue is projected at ₦34.33 trillion, a decline of ₦6.55 trillion (16%) from the 2025 budget estimate.
Statutory transfers are expected to total roughly ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing is projected at ₦10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure, including personnel costs and overheads, is pegged at ₦15.27 trillion, leaving a projected fiscal deficit of ₦20.1 trillion, equivalent to 3.61 percent of GDP.
The MTEF and FSP provide the fiscal blueprint for Nigeria’s economic and developmental planning over the next three years, setting the stage for the preparation and approval of the 2026 budget.