The Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on National Planning and Economic Development, Hon. Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, has cautioned against calls to reinstate the petrol subsidy regime, warning that reversing the policy would derail recent macroeconomic gains and plunge the nation back into severe fiscal distress.
Isiaka, who represents the Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency of Ogun State, made the remarks in response to an economic critique by Professor Bongo Adi.
The lawmaker referenced the mathematical “Rule of 70” to argue Nigeria’s growth trajectory, suggesting that the Federal Government reconsider and reverse the fuel subsidy removal.
Dismissing the use of static economic models to assess the country’s development challenges, the lawmaker argued that the Rule of 70 assumes constancy, whereas real-world economic outcomes are dynamic and shaped by emergent trends.
He maintained that using a linear calculation to justify bringing back subsidies is fundamentally simplistic for an economy as complex as Nigeria’s.
The lawmaker explained that while subsidies are legitimate policy instruments to cushion temporary shocks, Nigeria’s decades-long intervention had devolved into an unsustainable fiscal burden that encouraged rampant smuggling, arbitrage, and systemic under-recovery.
Commending President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the political will to end the regime, Isiaka acknowledged the sharp transitional pain felt by citizens, characterizing it as an unavoidable cost on the path toward durable economic recovery.
He noted that eliminating the drain on public revenues, combined with ongoing foreign exchange reforms, has begun rebuilding fiscal space and earned positive reviews from the World Trade Organization and global credit-rating agencies.
To mitigate the social impact of the transition, the lawmaker pointed to active federal safety nets and stimulus programs. These measures include direct household cash transfers, SME financing through the Bank of Industry, mass deployment of Compressed Natural Gas buses, student financing via NELFUND, expanded consumer credit through CREDICORP, and targeted technical skills training.
Comparing fuel subsidy transitions in Indonesia, Ghana, Iran, and the Philippines, Isiaka noted that reversing the policy would only treat symptoms while worsening root structural defects.
He urged policymakers to focus instead on productivity and transparency, insisting the wiser course is to ensure the post-subsidy economy works for every citizen.