A fresh comparative analysis by the International Energy Forum (IEF) has drawn attention to major differences in the latest monthly oil market reports from three leading agencies: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Released in September 2025, the reports reveal a clear divergence in projections for both oil demand and supply over 2025 and 2026.
Demand projections show sharp contrasts
The widest gap lies in the demand outlooks. OPEC remains the most bullish, forecasting global oil demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The organisation attributes this expansion to non-OECD economies, particularly China and India.
The EIA takes a more measured position, projecting consumption to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.3 mb/d in 2026, also pointing to non-OECD nations as the key drivers.
The IEA offers the most cautious forecast, expecting growth of just 700,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in both 2025 and 2026. Its latest estimate for 2025 was nudged higher to 740 kb/d, citing the impact of lower oil prices and a stronger economic backdrop.
According to the IEF, the gap between projections for 2025 and 2026 is as wide as 0.6 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d respectively, though all three agencies agree that non-OECD markets will account for almost all the net increase.
Supply outlook points to different paths
The supply side also shows pronounced variations, particularly around non-OPEC+ production.
EIA: The agency forecasts a substantial increase in global liquid fuels output, rising by 2.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, driven by both planned OPEC+ additions and strong flows from the United States, Brazil, and Canada.
IEA: The agency reports that global oil supply reached 106.9 mb/d in August, with projections for 2025 averaging 105.8 mb/d, a gain of 2.7 mb/d. It expects a further 2.1 mb/d increase in 2026, with non-OPEC+ producers providing more than 1 mb/d of that growth.
OPEC: The cartel takes a more guarded approach, projecting non-OPEC+ and DoC NGLs production to rise by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026.
The IEF notes that while OPEC maintains its steady view, the EIA and IEA are beginning to converge on U.S. supply growth estimates.
The forum’s assessment underlines the uncertainty clouding the global oil market, as the three agencies present markedly different visions of demand and supply dynamics over the next two years.