The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has revealed plans to put-up oil assets for auction at least once every year as it seeks to raise Nigeria’s crude production to 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
The commission’s Chief Executive Officer, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan in an interview with S&P global recently, said the licensing process could be held twice a year where possible, with the regulator targeting a turnaround time of six to seven months.
According to Eyesan, the strategy is aimed at bringing new investors into the upstream sector and getting more oil fields into production, after years of declining output caused by ageing assets, underinvestment and disruptions to production.
Nigeria currently produces about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate, according to the OPEC+ Survey by S&P Global Energy. However, poduction has not crossed the 2 million bpd mark in the last 12 years.
Eyesan said the next licensing round could commence by early October, with 13 blocks that were not awarded in the 2025 bid round expected to be returned to the market.
The new round is expected to cover deepwater and shallow-water acreage, while frontier onshore basins could also be included.
The development follows the award of 37 licences from the 50 blocks offered in the 2025 bid round.
According to Eyesan, those assets could add about 300,000 bpd to Nigeria’s production within their first three years.
She argued that successive licensing rounds could generate between 300,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd of additional production.
Eyesan added that the commission would however, be more careful about the assets it offers in future rounds, noting that some blocks included in the previous exercise were not sufficiently viable.
The NUPRC is also seeking to bring more indigenous and emerging operators into the sector as some international oil companies reduce their exposure to Nigeria’s onshore assets.
Eyesan cited Renaissance and First E&P as examples of newer operators that could play a larger role in increasing production.
The regulator is also introducing “drill-or-drop” conditions to discourage companies from holding acreage without developing it. Under the 2025 bid round, shallow-water licences were issued for three years, while deepwater and frontier licences were issued for five years, subject to the applicable extension terms.
Beyond increasing production, the NUPRC is looking to ensure that more Nigerian crude is available to domestic refineries as the country’s refining capacity expands.
The 700,000 bpd Dangote refinery has recently obtained about 77 per cent of its feedstock from Nigerian crude, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
Eyesan said the regulator supports efforts to increase domestic crude supply but acknowledged that refiners would continue to consider price and crude quality when making procurement decisions.
The NUPRC is consequently working on a compliance trading platform for the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation. The proposed system would allow producers that exceed their domestic supply requirements to transfer compliance certificates to producers that are more export-focused.
While the immediate target is 3 million bpd by 2030, Eyesan believes Nigeria could go considerably higher if investment and upstream activity are sustained.
She projected that the country could reach 4 million bpd within eight to 10 years.