By Matthew Denis
Nigeria recorded a slight moderation in its headline inflation rate for February 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.
The data reveals that the inflation rate dipped to 15.06 percent, representing a marginal decline of 0.04 percentage points from the 15.10 percent documented in January.
Despite this fractional retreat in the headline figure, the report highlights a burgeoning crisis in food costs.
Food inflation surged significantly to 12.12 percent in February, a sharp increase from the 8.89 percent recorded the previous month.
This upward trajectory indicates that the cost of essential commodities remains a primary source of financial strain for Nigerian households, even as broader inflationary pressures show signs of cooling.
The Bureau’s technical breakdown of price movements offered a more nuanced view of the economy’s direction.
While the year-on-year headline rate eased, the month-on-month headline inflation rate for February 2026 stood at 2.01 percent.
This figure is notably 4.89 percentage points higher than the -2.88 percent recorded in January 2026, signaling that the actual pace of price increases intensified during the month under review compared to the start of the year.
The official statistics arrived slightly higher than some independent forecasts. Prior to the release, analysts at the Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) had projected a more aggressive drop to approximately 14.07 percent.
The discrepancy between the FDC estimate and the NBS figure suggests that the underlying drivers of inflation particularly within the food supply chain remain more resilient than initially anticipated.