Nigeria’s economy has maintained a trajectory of recovery, recording a 3.98 percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025.
While this figure represents a slight moderation from the 4.23 percent recorded in the second quarter, analysts at both Comercio Partners and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) agree that the performance underscores the resilience of the non-oil sector amidst significant structural challenges.
The moderation in growth was primarily attributed to a sharp deceleration in the oil sector, which acted as a major drag on the economy.
According to the macroeconomic report by Comercio Partners, growth in the oil sector plummeted to 5.84 percent in Q3, a stark contrast to the 20.46 percent surge witnessed in the previous quarter.
This decline was driven by a drop in average daily crude production to 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd), down from 1.68 mbpd in Q2, as the sector continues to grapple with capacity constraints, pipeline leaks, and crude theft. Consequently, the oil sector’s contribution to the real GDP shrank to 3.44 percent.
In contrast to the oil sector’s struggles, the non-oil economy strengthened, growing by 3.91 percent and accounting for over 96 percent of total real output. The Services sector remained the dominant engine of growth, contributing 53 percent to the total output. Specifically, the CPPE highlighted the financial services sector as the standout performer, expanding by an impressive 19.63 percent due to increased economic activity and rising confidence in the financial system.
Agriculture also provided a necessary buffer, growing by 3.79 percent—an improvement attributed to the seasonally strong harvest period. However, the CPPE noted that this recovery remains constrained by insecurity in farming communities and weak rural logistics.
Despite the positive headline figures, the economic landscape remains fraught with difficulties for the average Nigerian and the manufacturing industry.
The CPPE emphasized that the “cost-of-living crisis remains a concern,” urging that macroeconomic stability must translate into tangible improvements in citizens’ welfare.
The manufacturing sector remains fragile, expanding by a meager 1.25 percent.
Analysts blame this sluggishness on high energy and logistics costs, as well as the smuggling of competing products.
Furthermore, specific sub-sectors like Textile and Apparel remain in recession, contracting by 2.41 percent due to uncompetitive production costs.
Additionally, while the Real Estate sector posted massive nominal growth of 89 percent, this has largely been fueled by asset revaluation, worsening housing affordability in major cities.
Comercio Partners describes the current situation as a “two-speed economy,” where non-oil sectors stabilize the ship while the oil sector faces operational bottlenecks.
To sustain and improve this growth, Dr. Muda Yusuf of the CPPE called for targeted government interventions to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis and address the structural impediments such as energy supply and security that continue to erode competitiveness.