Nearly a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade faces severe operational risk, with the global market lacking sufficient spare capacity to replace shipments passing through the corridor.
According to a joint report titled Global LNG Market Security, published by the International Energy Forum and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, approximately 20 percent of worldwide LNG trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, leaving energy-dependent nations critically exposed to bottlenecks, geopolitical conflicts, and shipping disruptions.
The study revealed that existing global liquefaction infrastructure elsewhere cannot absorb the shock should transit through the narrow Persian Gulf passage stall.
In 2025, the estimated replacement gap reached roughly 14 billion cubic meters, highlighting that alternative export terminals are unable to ramp up quick production when supply lines through the Strait falter.
However, because LNG diversification does not automatically equate to substitutability, physical constraints in feed-gas availability, contractual obligations and specialized shipping mean that stranded Hormuz volumes cannot be readily replaced by other exporters.
South Asian developing economies bear the most acute exposure to this transit corridor.
The report also revealed that in 2024, an overwhelming 87 percent of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 75 percent of India’s and 71 percent of Bangladesh’s moved directly through Hormuz, while China sourced 22 percent of its requirements via the route.
Due to the vast scale of total Chinese demand, even partial disturbances to Hormuz supply flows spark aggressive bidding wars on the open market, triggering intense price spikes across European and Asian hubs while effectively pricing lower-income economies out of critical energy supplies.
While global LNG trade has expanded from 133 billion cubic meters in 2000 to more than 600 billion cubic meters in 2026 with projections targeting 800 billion cubic meters by 2031, the report cautions that higher output will not insulate consumers from maritime blockades.
With the United States, Qatar, and Australia accounting for 60% of global supply, the heavy concentration of export origination points means that disruptions along key marine passages like the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dictate global market volatility and energy security.