The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has alerted Nigerians to expect an artificial spike in the December 2025 inflation figures, attributing the projected surge to a technical base effect from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing rather than worsening economic fundamentals.
This clarification came as investment banking firm, CardinalStone Partners, projected a significant easing of monetary policy, forecasting a 300–400 basis point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) for 2026.
Speaking at a stakeholder engagement organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Monday, Ayo Anthony, Head of Price Statistics at the NBS, explained that the year-on-year inflation figure for December might appear excessively high due to arithmetic distortions.
“The spike is not a reflection of our economic fundamentals,” Anthony stated. “We are releasing the spiked figures alongside the official headline inflation that policymakers will use. There is expected to be a reversal in January 2026 as the figures normalize.”
Nigeria’s CPI was rebased in 2024 for the first time in 15 years, updating consumption weights and shifting the base year.
This methodological change had caused headline inflation to drop sharply from about 34.8% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January 2025.
Analysts at CardinalStone note that while the “mechanical lift” could push December 2025 inflation to about 32.07%, it remains a statistical phenomenon. The firm expects inflation to return to typical levels in early 2026.
In its 2026 economic outlook report titled “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” CardinalStone projected a brighter year for the real sector.
“We expect sustained macro stability and a projected 300-400bps monetary policy rate cut to improve credit conditions and support manufacturing output in 2026,” the report stated.
The firm noted that easing interest rates would reduce financing pressures on manufacturers, encourage capacity expansion, and improve access to working capital.
Additionally, improved domestic refining capacity is expected to lower energy costs, further supporting industrial production.
On the financial services front, CardinalStone forecasts a 20.3% growth in 2026 (up from 17.6% in 2025), driven by higher banking fees and expanded credit activity as lower borrowing costs spur demand for loans.
NGX crosses 163,000 mark as ASI gains 0.58% on strong trading activity
The Nigerian equities market began the week on a bullish note this Monday, January 12, 2026, with the All-Share Index (ASI) climbing by 946.6 points to close at 163,244.7 points, effectively clearing the 163,000 psychological mark.
The 0.58% daily gain lifted the market’s year-to-date (YTD) performance to 4.90%, signaling growing investor confidence in the new year.
Market capitalization appreciated by approximately N800 billion, rising to N104.5 trillion from N103.7 trillion recorded on Friday.
Trading activity witnessed a significant surge, with 1.14 billion shares valued at N13.6 billion exchanging hands in 59,359 deals a sharp increase from the 624 million shares traded in the previous session.
The market breadth was positive as several stocks recorded maximum gains.
Top gainers included Deap Capital Management, Etranzact, UPDC, McNichols, RT Briscoe, and Red Star Express, each climbing 10 per cent, while Champion and Eunisell led losses, falling 8.51 per cent and 8.01 per cent, respectively.
In terms of volume, Sovereign Trust Insurance recorded the highest activity with 307.4 million shares traded, followed by Fidelity Bank (158.3 million) and LinkAssure (118.7 million).
On transaction value, Fidelity Bank led with N3.1 billion, trailed by Aradel (N1.4 billion), Zenith Bank (N1.1 billion), Eunisell (N1.05 billion), and Sovereign Trust Insurance (N1 billion).
Analysts note that the ASI’s ability to hold above 163,000 points indicates sustained confidence in mid- and large-cap stocks, though they cautioned that a minor pullback could occur as the market enters overbought territory.