As the escalating war involving the US, Israel, and Iran severely disrupts global petroleum supply chains, African nations are racing to secure alternative energy sources.
At the forefront of this scramble, South Africa is actively pursuing a 12-month fuel supply contract with Aliko Dangote’s mega-refinery in Lagos, Nigeria.
They are not alone in this strategic pivot as governments across the continent, prominently including Ghana and Kenya, have also initiated official contact with the $20 billion facility, seeking reliable regional alternatives as traditional Middle Eastern supplies dry up.
The sudden shift in energy procurement stems from intense pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime chokepoint that facilitates nearly a fifth of the world’s oil trade.
Following Iran’s blockade of the strait on February 28, Gulf refineries that traditionally supply the bulk of Africa’s finished petroleum products have been placed under immense strain. This geopolitical bottleneck has been particularly devastating for eastern and southern African nations, which historically rely on the Middle East for approximately 75 percent of their refined fuel imports, according to the energy consultancy CITAC.
The ripple effect of this conflict has already sent global crude prices surging well above the $100 per barrel mark.
Aliko Dangote recently emphasized the gravity of the situation, noting that the current market dynamics are driven entirely by product availability rather than pricing, a reality he expects to persist for the foreseeable future.
However, while his 650,000-barrel-per-day facility is one of the largest on the planet, its capacity to absorb the continent’s newly redirected demand is structurally limited.
Currently, about 75 percent of the plant’s production is dedicated to meeting Nigeria’s domestic needs—a massive shift that now supplies roughly 92 percent of the country’s petrol demand and has drastically reduced its own reliance on fuel imports.
Consequently, the remaining export window is relatively narrow, leading analysts to caution that the refinery cannot single-handedly bridge the massive fuel deficit now facing the rest of the continent.
Despite these capacity limitations, governments are moving swiftly to mitigate potential economic crises. A spokesperson for the South African government confirmed their active coordination with industry stakeholders to secure both crude and refined products from a more diverse range of sources.
Both South African and Kenyan authorities have reassured their citizens that they currently possess adequate fuel reserves for the immediate future, staving off imminent threats of shortages. Nevertheless, the lack of deep strategic reserves remains a looming vulnerability, especially given that no African nation belongs to the International Energy Agency, which mandates that its members hold at least 90 days’ worth of net oil import reserves.
Ultimately, this widespread scramble for Dangote’s refined output underscores a deep-seated structural vulnerability across the continent. Years of chronic underinvestment have decimated Africa’s local refining capacities, leaving once-functional facilities to deteriorate or shut down entirely. As the global oil market recalibrates in the wake of the Middle East conflict, the rapid pivot by nations like South Africa, Ghana, and Kenya signals a significant turning point. African governments are increasingly being forced to view regional supply chains and intra-continental trade not merely as a convenient fallback option, but as a vital strategic asset for long-term energy security.