Intra-African trade is on track to reach $230 billion by 2026, driven by the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the newly released “African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026” report by Afreximbank has revealed.
Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research at Afreximbank, Yemi Kale noted in the report’s foreword that AfCFTA represents more than a trade agreement, it serves as an economic stabilization mechanism in a fragmenting world.
He explained that by expanding intra-African trade and reducing tariff barriers, the continent can decrease its exposure to external shocks while building regional value chains in sectors like agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and digital services.
Kale emphasized that integration alone is insufficient without adequate trade finance, which he described as a critical transmission channel for real-sector expansion.
He highlighted that African firms, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, remain disproportionately affected by trade finance gaps. Bridging these gaps is essential for industrialization and employment generation, making the strengthening of the continent’s financial architecture a high macroeconomic priority.
The report projects that overall continental trade is projected to grow by 10 percent this year.
The report also explains that despite global geopolitical tensions and trade traffic issues, African economies have shown significant resilience.
The continent’s output expanded by 4.2 percent in 2025, up from 3.4 percent in 2024, supported by robust domestic demand, strong export performance, service sector growth, and renewed infrastructure investments.
However, the economic landscape remains vulnerable due to an overdependence on commodities, which exposes the continent to price volatility.
Data shows that total trade in 2025 reached $1.4 trillion, with intra-African trade accounting for approximately 18 percent of that figure, bolstered by the ongoing integration efforts under AfCFTA.
Africa is well-positioned to enhance its growth prospects through a gradual recovery from recent global shocks. GDP growth is expected to rise marginally to 4.3 percent in 2026 before expanding to 4.4 percent in the medium term.
This recovery will be supported by increased global demand for African exports, disinflation, and structural reforms aimed at economic diversification. Non-resource-intensive economies are projected to lead this trend, with average growth accelerating to about 7.5 percent in 2026.