…as Food inflation falls to 11.08%
…Analysts credit strong harvest, stable Naira
By Seun Ibiyemi
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 percent in November 2025, down from 16.05 percent in October 2025, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The report, released on Monday, indicates a 1.6 percent decrease compared to the October headline rate, marking a significant milestone in the country’s economic recovery efforts.
This development aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious target set in December 2024. While presenting the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly, the President pledged to reduce the inflation rate from 34.6 percent to 15 percent by the end of 2025 a goal many experts had viewed with skepticism.
“The 2025 budget projects that inflation will decline significantly from the current 34.6 percent to 15 percent by the end of next year,” Tinubu had stated.
The November figure of 14.45 percent confirms that the administration has not only met but surpassed this target ahead of the year-end deadline.
On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was significantly lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in November 2024, representing a decline of 20.15 percent.
However, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation inched up slightly to 1.22 percent in November 2025, representing a 0.29 percent increase from the 0.93 percent recorded in October 2025.
The report highlighted a substantial drop in food inflation, which stood at 11.08 percent on a year-on-year basis in November 2025.
This is 28.85 percentage points lower than the 39.93 percent recorded in the same period in 2024. The Bureau noted that the technical decline in the annual figure is partly due to the change in the base year.
Conversely, month-on-month food inflation rose to 1.13 percent, a 1.5 percent increase from the -0.37 percent recorded in October 2025. The NBS attributed this monthly rise to price increases in specific items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, unshelled melon (egusi), oxtail, and fresh onions.
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending November 2025 was 19.68 percent, which is 18.99 percentage points lower compared to the 38.67 percent recorded in November 2024,” the report stated.
In terms of regional food inflation (year-on-year), Kogi (17.83 percent), Ogun (16.52 percent), and Rivers (16.11 percent) recorded the highest rates.
Meanwhile, Imo (3.52 percent), Katsina (3.65 percent), and Akwa Ibom (4.52 percent) saw the slowest rises.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Yobe (9.52 percent), Katsina (6.61 percent), and Ondo (6.04 percent). In contrast, Imo (-6.49 percent), Nasarawa (-5.48 percent), and Enugu (-2.54 percent) recorded price declines.
Core inflation (all items less farm produce and energy) stood at 18.04 percent year-on-year in November 2025, a decline of 10.71 percent from the 28.75 percent recorded in November 2024. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate dropped to 1.28 percent, down 0.14 percent from October’s 1.42 percent.
Economists and market analysts have reacted positively to the figures, citing strong harvests and a stable currency as primary drivers.
Ayo Teriba, CEO of Economic Associates, described the cooling inflation as a lag effect rather than a direct result of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing conducted earlier in the year.
The CPI rebasing in early 2025, which updated consumption weights and shifted the base year to 2024, initially caused a sharp drop in headline inflation from 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025. Since then, the trend has been largely downward.
Analysts at Meristem noted that the easing trend reflects falling food prices supported by abundant harvests and a stable Naira. Key staples such as maize, sorghum, paddy rice, and soybean recorded widespread price declines, pushing food inflation down to 11.08 percent from 13.12 percent in October.
The Naira also appreciated by 1.45 percent month-on-month, averaging N1,443.85 per dollar in November compared to N1,465.04 in October, offering further relief to consumers.
Market observers believe that sustained lower inflation could ease cost-of-living pressures and foster broader economic stability.