By Fredrick Ameh
A report by the Industry Competency Centre of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has revealed that Nigwria’s downstream inventory buffers remain below safe thresholds, exposing the country to possible future disruptions.
The report last week revealed that the downstream petroleum sector experienced renewed supply pressure between October 2025 and April 2026, as fuel inventory levels declined sharply amid rising consumption, fluctuating imports, and increased dependence on domestic refining.
The report further revealed that while domestic refining capacity improved significantly during the review period, inventory buffers remained below safe thresholds, exposing the market to possible future disruptions.
According to the report, a major turning point occurred in January 2026 when local refining, driven largely by the Dangote Refinery, outpaced imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) for the first time, accounting for about 62% of the total national fuel supply.
The report noted that domestic refining later expanded further following restrictions on import licenses issued by the regulator in February 2026, forcing local refineries to shoulder a larger share of national demand.
By April 2026, the domestic PMS supply rose to 40.7 million litres per day, representing a 19% month-on-month increase and the highest supply level recorded since the February–March market contraction.
Despite the improvement in local production, the market continued to face significant pressure due to rising consumption levels.
The analysis showed that daily PMS consumption climbed to 52 million litres in April 2026, exceeding the total supply and leading to a continuous decline in stock sufficiency levels.
National PMS stock sufficiency, which stood at 32.9 days in January 2026, dropped steadily to 17.7 days by April, falling significantly below the internationally recommended 30-day energy security threshold.
Industry analysts warned that the decline leaves Nigeria’s fuel market vulnerable to supply disruptions, especially during periods of refinery shutdowns, logistics constraints, or import delays.
The report also highlighted major instability within the Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) market, where the supply collapsed sharply in March 2026.
AGO supply dropped to 10.3 million litres per day in March from an average of about 18.9 million litres, representing one of the steepest contractions within the review period.
According to the report, the decline was linked largely to rising ex-depot diesel prices, which reportedly exceeded ₦1,600 per litre during the period.
While liquid fuel supply chains remained volatile, natural gas supply emerged as one of the sector’s strongest-performing segments.
The report indicated that the natural gas supply maintained consistent month-on-month growth throughout the review period, rising from 4.673 billion standard cubic feet per day in October 2025 to 5.142 billion standard cubic feet per day in April 2026.
This represented a 5.2% month-on-month growth and a 6.3% year-to-date increase, making natural gas the only major energy segment to sustain uninterrupted expansion during the period under review.
The report further showed that Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) stock levels experienced unusual fluctuations. ATK stock sufficiency rose dramatically from 20 days in January 2026 to 109 days by March 2026, reflecting a 445% increase in inventory cushion within two months.
However, analysts observed that the surge may also indicate slower demand absorption within the aviation fuel market during that period.
On pricing trends, the report showed that average PMS pump prices remained elevated nationwide in April 2026 due to global crude oil volatility and foreign exchange pressures.
Average pump prices ranged from ₦1,282 per litre in Ibadan and Lagos to about ₦1,378 per litre in Maiduguri.
The report attributed the pricing pressure partly to global geopolitical tensions, particularly the prolonged conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which disrupted shipping activities around the Strait of Hormuz and created instability within international oil markets.
According to the report, global benchmark crude prices rose above $120 per barrel during parts of the review period, while gasoline prices exceeded $1,074 per metric tonne, increasing supply costs across import-dependent markets such as Nigeria.
Industry observers noted that although Nigeria’s increasing domestic refining capacity represents a major structural shift within the petroleum market, sustainable market stability will depend heavily on maintaining adequate strategic fuel reserves and ensuring uninterrupted refinery operations.
Analysts also stressed the need for targeted stock replenishment strategies, improved logistics infrastructure, and balanced import policies to prevent future supply shocks within the downstream sector.