…as Economist predicts single-digit rate
By Seun Ibiyemi
Economic experts are expressing conflicting concerns following the release of Nigeria’s latest inflation figures.
While headline inflation dropped to 15.15 percent in December 2025, marking a significant year-long trend of disinflation, analysts warn that rising core inflation and controversial statistical methodologies threaten to undermine investor confidence.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), and Ayo Teriba, CEO of Economic Associates, have both weighed in on the data, offering divergent but critical assessments of the nation’s economic health.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation eased to 15.15 percent in December, largely driven by a sharp drop in food inflation to 10.84 percent. Month-on-month food prices even recorded a deflation of 0.36 percent, offering temporary relief to households.
However, Dr. Yusuf pointed out a worrying contradiction: Core Inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose to 18.63 percent in December, up from 18.04 percent in November.
In a recent policy brief, the CPPE described this rise as inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly given the recent stability of the naira’s exchange rate. Dr. Yusuf identified the main drivers of this persistent pressure as high energy and fuel costs, escalating logistics expenses, import duties, insecurity affecting agricultural output and high interest rates.
“Food and beverages, housing, restaurants, transportation, and fuel accounted for nearly 72 percent of overall price pressures,” Yusuf noted. He warned that while consumers are benefiting from lower food prices, the situation presents a policy dilemma: farmers are facing declining returns amidst rising input costs. If left unaddressed, this could discourage agricultural investment and threaten long-term food security.
While Dr. Yusuf focused on structural drivers, renowned economist Ayo Teriba strongly criticized the NBS for its recent changes to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation methodology.
Teriba described the bureau’s upward revision of previously announced year-on-year inflation figures by approximately three percentage points across 11 months as arbitrary, senseless, and globally unprecedented.
“I don’t see any sense in what they have done. I don’t see any global methodology they are talking about,” Teriba stated in an interview. “They have now added between 2.9 and 3.1 percentage points to all the year-on-year inflation figures they announced since January. I don’t know any country that has come back to do that before.”
Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised the adjustment as being consistent with global standards, Teriba insists the earlier rebased figures were more accurate.
He argued that the revisions exaggerate official figures without reflecting actual price trends.
Despite his criticism of the data handling, Teriba remains optimistic about the actual state of the economy.
He projected that Nigeria is firmly on track to achieve single-digit inflation by the first quarter of 2026.
“Whether it happens in January or not, single-digit inflation will be with us in Nigeria by the end of the first quarter, and we should remain there for the year,” Teriba predicted.
He credited this progress to successful domestic reforms led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which have strengthened the naira, improved market transparency, and boosted investor confidence.
He also welcomed Nigeria’s removal from the European Union’s high-risk financial list as a positive indicator.
Both experts agree that credibility and structural reform are paramount. Dr. Yusuf called for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, targeted cost reductions for farmers, and urgent improvements in the quality of inflation statistics.
Ayo Teriba emphasized that statistical credibility must be preserved to maintain trust in official data, warning that alarmist revisions could obscure the genuine progress made in stabilizing the economy.