…Predicts GDP growth to rise to 4.1%
By Seun Ibiyemi
Nigeria could enter 2026 in its strongest economic position in more than a decade, according to Bismarck Rewane, economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC).
Speaking at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 held in Lagos, Rewane said the country is on the verge of a historic economic turnaround driven by easing inflation, rising investment, major corporate listings and more stable monetary conditions.
He described 2026 as a pivotal year in which structural reforms, private-sector expansion and improved policy coordination will combine to reposition Africa’s largest economy for sustained growth.
Rewane projected that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could see its market capitalisation surge to N262 trillion in 2026, up from about N93 trillion. At that level, he said, the market would represent 72 percent of the country’s projected GDP and rank among the fastest-growing exchanges in emerging markets.
He attributed the expected growth to potential mega listings such as the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), as well as stronger profitability across telecoms, cement, banking and consumer goods.
The economist also forecast a major easing of inflation next year, predicting that food and core inflation could drop to around 20 percent as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains a firm disinflationary stance. Improved domestic refining, stronger manufacturing output, rising productivity and lower supply-chain costs are expected to support the downward trend.
With inflation moderating, Rewane said household purchasing power is likely to improve, stimulating consumption and boosting activity in the retail, services and industrial sectors.
On monetary policy, he noted that the CBN could begin cautious interest-rate cuts in 2026 after almost two years of aggressive tightening.
However, he warned that any policy easing will depend on evidence of sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves and more stable foreign-exchange operations.
Rewane projected that the naira will appreciate and stabilise within the N1450 to N1500 per dollar range next year, supported by higher oil production, improved FX supply, reduced arbitrage and a moderation in import demand.
He forecast overall GDP growth of 4.1 percent in 2026, driven by infrastructure upgrades, improved trade flows, stronger private-sector credit and better implementation of industrial policies.
According to him, six sectors will shape the economic outlook, led by agriculture and agro-processing with projected earnings of N104.6 trillion, followed by real estate, telecommunications, manufacturing, the creative economy and technology.
Rewane also highlighted strong corporate performance as a key driver of growth, citing bullish revenue projections for MTN Nigeria and Dangote Cement.
He said robust earnings from these companies will reinforce investor confidence and propel the market higher.
He added that Nigeria’s banking sector will enter 2026 with enhanced stability, supported by moderating inflation, improved digital penetration and stronger capital buffers following the ongoing recapitalisation exercise.
However, Rewane warned that Nigeria’s outlook remains vulnerable to global volatility, including geopolitical tensions, commodity-price fluctuations and fragile global growth. Domestically, he identified risks such as declining oil prices, worsening insecurity in food-producing states, election-year spending and shocks to key export commodities.
He added that Nigeria stands “at the threshold of a profound economic reset,” with 2026 poised to determine whether the country accelerates into a new era of stability or falters if critical reforms lose momentum.