The All Progressives Congress (APC) is bracing for a day of intense internal reckoning tomorrow as delegates head to the polls for the senatorial primary elections.
While several districts across the country have successfully consensus-built their tickets, eyes are locked on two major battlegrounds in the South-West namely Osun Central and Ogun East.
The primaries in this location will evolve into heavyweight political proxy wars that will test the absolute limits of party loyalty, executive incumbency, and the lingering influence of godfatherism ahead of the 2027 general elections.
In Osun State, the spotlight falls squarely on Osun Central, where a fierce contest will play out between the challenger, Femi Oyetola son of Former Governor of Osun State and the incumbent Senator, Olubiyi Fadeyi.
The backdrop of this primary is deeply rooted in the chaotic 2023 general elections. In 2023, the internal fractures within the Osun APC compounded by the fallout of the previous year’s gubernatorial election allowed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to make sweeping gains across the state.
Senator Fadeyi capitalized on that momentum to secure the seat defatubg current National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, but the structural dynamics of Osun have shifted dramatically since.
Political analysts believe tomorrow’s outcome will be almost entirely determined by the overarching influence of former Governor and current Minister, Adegboyega Oyetola.
As the undisputed leader of the APC structure in Osun, Oyetola’s machinery has been quietly mobilized behind Femi Oyetola.
Similarly, many cite the goodwill many politicians in the state have enjoyed under the Minister since the party lost the Executive seat in the state in 2022.
Another factor identified by party memebrs is the scale of empowerment programmes embarked upon by Femi Oyetola in Osun central district.
Many argued that despite not occupying an elective position, he has impacted residents more than the incumbent.
For the party leadership, reclaiming Osun Central is not just an electoral objective, it is a matter of restoring party pride and resetting the power balance in a state currently governed by the PDP.
While Senator Fadeyi relies on his incumbency advantage and a grassroots network established during his legislative tenure, the sheer weight of the formal party leadership structure backing the Oyetola camp presents a formidable mountain to climb.
The primary will serve as a definitive litmus test of whether grassroots incumbency can withstand the coordinated pressure of a unified party hierarchy.
If Osun Central is a battle of structural alignment, Ogun East is an all-out clash of political titans. The district is set for a monumental showdown between the incumbent Senator and former Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, and the camp of the sitting Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun.
The animosity and rivalry between both camps have been a defining feature of Ogun State politics since the 2023 elections.
In 2023, despite clearing a path to victory, the electoral numbers revealed a highly fragmented electorate, with fierce undercurrents of internal sabotage and cross-carpeting alignments. Since then, the relationship between the Gateway State’s current executive and its former governor has grown increasingly icy.
Governor Abiodun’s camp is entering tomorrow’s primary with the immense leverage of state machinery, party leadership control at the state level, and the financial and administrative backing that accompanies a sitting executive.
History in Nigerian politics dictates that state governors rarely lose primary elections within their domains, as they heavily influence the delegate selection processes.
However, Otunba Gbenga Daniel is not a conventional incumbent.
In an interview last week, the fprmer Governor dismissed the notion that executive intimidation could sway the willpower of the Ogun East electorate.
“The mandate I hold belongs to the people, not to any administrative fiat. We have served our people with distinction, transparency, and unyielding loyalty to the progressive ideals of our party. True power belongs to the grassroots, and I am confident that the delegates of Ogun East remember who stood by them, who built the foundations of modern Ogun, and who represents their true voice in the Red Chamber,” Daniel declared during the interview.
Governor Abiodun is looking to stamp his total control over the state’s APC structure by consolidating power by holding elective posts directly or by proxy through his loyalists.