A study has suggested that artificial intelligence (AI)-powered forecasting platform can help avert up to 70 per cent of severe Lassa fever cases if vaccination is administered before the peak transmission season.
The finding is contained in the 2025 ECOWAS Lassa Fever International Conference (ELFIC) Report, officially released by the West African Health Organisation (WAHO), and made available to newsmen on Thursday.
The report captures key evidence, discussions, research findings and recommendations from ELFIC 2025, which brought together policymakers, scientists, researchers, public health professionals and development partners in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
A scientific presentation by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) examined the Sentinel forecasting platform.
It is an AI-powered tool designed to provide situational awareness and short-term forecasts of Lassa fever outbreaks.
According to the report, the platform combines environmental and disease surveillance data to help identify areas at increased risk of Lassa fever outbreaks.
The modelling suggested that pre-season vaccination in high-risk areas could avert up to 70 per cent of severe Lassa fever cases.
The finding highlights the potential of predictive analytics to support earlier and more targeted interventions against the disease.
The platform could enable public health authorities to anticipate periods and locations of increased Lassa fever risk and use the information to guide vaccination, surveillance, medical supplies and other preparedness measures.
The report said the approach could contribute to a shift from predominantly reactive outbreak responses towards proactive forecasting and prevention.
However, discussions at the conference also highlighted challenges that could limit the deployment of AI and big data tools across West Africa.
These include poor digital infrastructure, fragmented health information systems, limited technical expertise and ethical concerns surrounding the collection and use of health data.
Experts also cautioned that imported AI models might not adequately reflect African realities, stressing the need for region-specific tools based on local disease patterns, health-seeking behaviours and demographic characteristics.
They called for African-led governance frameworks to promote transparency, accountability and community trust in the use of artificial intelligence for public health.
The experts further stressed the importance of building local datasets and strengthening the capacity of African researchers, epidemiologists and data scientists to develop and maintain appropriate forecasting tools.
The conference report also highlighted the importance of combining predictive modelling with conventional surveillance, laboratory systems and community-based detection.
In a separate session on innovations in Lassa fever preparedness and response, participants highlighted after-action reviews and predictive modelling as important tools for improving outbreak planning.
A presentation from Sierra Leone on after-action reviews following the country’s 2023 outbreaks identified community engagement as a key strength, while delayed funding and weak community-based detection remained challenges.
Participants recommended training frontline health workers and integrating predictive modelling into outbreak response planning.
The report also documented Nigeria’s emphasis on integrating multiple data streams, including multi-hazard risk calendars and 7-1-7 metrics into policy frameworks.
Nigeria further recommended prepositioning medical supplies and applying Human-Centred Design principles in public health communication.
The WAHO report identified the use of technology and innovation as one of the priorities for strengthening regional preparedness against Lassa fever and other emerging infectious diseases.
Other key recommendations included strengthening regional coordination platforms, accelerating Lassa fever vaccine trials, expanding genomic and laboratory surveillance networks, strengthening community-based surveillance and risk communication, and integrating epidemic preparedness into national health financing.
The report also called for greater operational research and data sharing among ECOWAS Member States.
WAHO said the report was intended to serve as a resource for policy development, research, preparedness and greater coordination among governments and partners across the region.
The organisation urged governments, researchers, public health institutions, communities and development partners to use the recommendations to strengthen Lassa fever preparedness and regional health security.
Lassa fever remains endemic in several West African countries, including Nigeria, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Benin.
The report said stronger regional collaboration, locally appropriate technology, sustainable financing and improved surveillance would be critical to reducing the impact of Lassa fever and other emerging infectious diseases.
The findings from the Sentinel forecasting platform provide an opportunity for countries to explore how predictive technologies can be integrated into existing preparedness systems to identify risks earlier and support targeted interventions before outbreaks escalate.