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POS transactions crash by N226bn in Q1, 2024

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Point-of-Sale (POS) transaction values witnessed a downturn in Nigeria for the first quarter of 2024, registering a N225.73 billion drop when compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

This significant decline marks a 7.94 percent fall in the use of POS systems for transactions within the country as the currency outside banks surged.

The contrasting trends of POS transaction values and volumes—sourced from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) with the data of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on currency circulation offer a complex picture of the financial habits of Nigerians in the first quarter of 2024.

While this analysis encompasses the first quarter of 2024, the CBN has not yet released the data for March 2024. This limits the analysis for cash outside banks to February 2024.

The quarter opened with a slight uptick in POS transaction values, which stood at N850.09 billion in January 2024, surpassing January 2023’s figures.

However, the initial growth was short-lived, as February 2024 saw a reduction in transaction values to N805.05 billion, down from N883.45 billion in February of the previous year. The downward trajectory extended to March 2024, where the value of transactions through POS systems further decreased to N961.86 billion from March 2023’s high of N1.15 trillion.

The total value of transactions for Q1 2024 summed up to N2.62 trillion, failing to match the N2.84 trillion recorded in the same period in 2023.

The decline in Nigeria’s POS transaction values for Q1 2024 is further mirrored by a similar fall in transaction volumes. Alongside the N225.73 billion drop in transaction value, the number of POS transactions also reduced considerably.

January 2024 saw an initial rise in transaction volumes to 112.78 million, an increase from 96.35 million in January 2023. Despite this initial rise, the overall trend for the quarter was a decline.

In February 2024, the volume of POS transactions decreased to 97.57 million from the 113.53 million recorded in the same month of the previous year. March continued this decline, with volumes falling to 103.65 million, down from the high of 177.93 million seen in March 2023.

When totaled, the first quarter of 2024 saw POS transaction volumes reach 314 million, which is a significant drop of 73.81 million, or 19.03 percent, from the 387.81 million transactions recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

This decline in POS transaction values and volumes can be seen in the context of the cash scarcity that hit Nigeria in the first quarter of 2023.

The cash shortage during that period led to a surge in cashless transactions, including the use of POS systems, as citizens sought alternatives to conduct their daily business in the absence of sufficient cash circulation.

The recent decline in POS usage suggests a reversal of the cashless trend, possibly indicating that the aftereffects of the previous year’s cash scarcity might be normalising, or that new patterns in consumer transaction behavior are emerging.

Despite the downturn in POS transaction values and volumes in Nigeria for Q1 2024, there has been an uptrend in the registration of POS terminals during the same period.

In Q1 2023, the number of registered POS terminals increased by 218,475, from 2,318,947 in January 2023 to 2,537,422 by March 2023. By the same quarter in 2024, the number of registered POS terminals had increased by 289, 154, from 3,441,287 in January 2024 to 3,730,441 by March 2024.

Overall, between the end of Q1 2023 and that of Q1 2024, Nigeria has witnessed an additional 1,193,019 POS terminals, marking a 47.02 percent increase.

This rise in terminal registration seems counterintuitive given the simultaneous decrease in transaction value and volume. It could suggest that while the immediate usage of POS systems has dropped, the infrastructure continues to expand.

Amid the decline in POS transaction values and volumes, alongside the significant rise in registered POS terminals in Nigeria for Q1 2024, the scenario is further compounded by the increasing trend of cash outside the banking system.

The CBN data show a notable preference among Nigerians to keep cash at home. In January 2024, cash outside banks escalated to N3.28 trillion, which is an increase of 314 percent from N792.18 billion in the same month of 2023. For February, the amount skyrocketed further to N3.411 trillion, marking a 305 percent  increase from the N843.31 billion recorded in February 2023.

Similarly, the amount of currency in general circulation followed this upward trajectory. The CBN reported that in January 2024, the currency in circulation rose by 163 percent to N3.65 trillion, from January 2023’s N1.39 trillion. In February 2024, the amount reached N3.69 trillion which represents a 276 percent increase from February 2023’s figure of N982.1 billion.

Approximately 92 percent of all currency in circulation in February 2024 was outside the banking system. This is a notable increase from February 2023, when the figure stood at 86 percent.

The growth in the proportion of currency held outside banks is significant and suggests a deepening trend of cash retention by Nigerians, a pattern that may have influenced the observed decrease in POS transaction activities despite the expanding availability of POS terminals.

Together, these figures from NIBSS and CBN suggest a period of adjustment and a possible recalibration of trust in cash-based transactions, likely still echoing the cash scarcity challenges of the previous year.

Money market

Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 33.69% in April 2024

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In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Comparing year-on-year data, the inflation rate in April 2024 was 11.47 percent points higher than in April 2023, where it stood at 22.22 percent. This indicates that the headline inflation rate has risen significantly over the past year.

Additionally, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.29 percent, which is 0.73 percent lower than the 3.02 percent recorded in March 2024. This suggests that the rate at which prices increased in April 2024 was slower than the rate in March 2024.

In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial increase of 15.92 percentage points from the 24.61 percent recorded in April 2023. This significant rise in food inflation can be attributed to higher prices for several items including millet flour, garri, bread, prepacked wheat flour, and semovita, all of which belong to the Bread and Cereals class, as well as for yam tuber, water yam, and cocoyam and others.

For the year ending in April 2024, the average annual rate of food inflation stood at 32.74 percent, representing an increase of 9.52 percentage points over the 23.22 percent average annual rate recorded in April 2023.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, reached 26.84 percent in April 2024 on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 6.87 percent from the 19.96 percent recorded in April 2023. The most significant price rises were observed in actual and imputed rentals for housing, motorcycle journeys, bus journeys within a city (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), consultation fees for medical doctors, X-ray photography (under Medical Services Class), and accommodation services.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.20 percent in April 2024, down from 2.54 percent in March 2024, representing a decrease of 0.34 percent. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 22.84 percent, which is 5.15 percentage points higher than the 17.70 percent recorded in April 2023.

In April 2024, the urban inflation rate on a year-on-year basis reached 36.00 percent, which is 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.39 percent recorded in April 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.67 percent, showing a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the 3.17 percent seen in March 2024. The average urban inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 30.02 percent, marking an increase of 8.53 percentage points from the 21.50 percent reported in April 2023.

In April 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.64 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is 10.50 percentage points higher than the 21.14 percent seen in April 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for April 2024 was 1.92 percent, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the 2.87 percent recorded in March 2024. The average rural inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 26.38 percent, which represents an increase of 6.20 percentage points from the 20.18 percent reported in April 2023.

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Governor Sule woos investors to invest in Nasarawa, assures of inclusive economy

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…Counts gains of previous edition of investment summit

By Matthew Denis, Lafia

The Governor of Nasarawa state, Engr. Abdullahi Sule has taken steps to woo investors to invest in the state  at the ongoing Nasarawa Investment Summit.

Delivering his opening speech, Governor Sule disclosed that the state is expanding the existing industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards a better economy.

He said, “What we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is with a sense of fulfillment and responsibility that I address you today on the occasion of the Nasarawa Investment Summit, 2024.

“I must acknowledge our most cherished investors and other development partners, who are here to be part of this auspicious occasion. I have no doubt that the coming together of these distinguished and eminent personalities will, no doubt offer us the opportunities to continue to map the future of our State economic landscape in our relentless commitment to explore business opportunities and forge investment partnerships across business endeavour.”

The Governor stressed that it is pertinent to remind you that Nasarawa State organised the first edition of the Nasarawa Investment Summit in 2022 under the theme “Diamond in the Rough: The Making of a New Investment Frontier,” aimed at ushering investment and showcasing our mineral resources to potential investors.

“I am happy to state that the outcome of the Summit informed the influx of investors into the State Who are variously harnessing our God-given endowment.

“Interestingly, the recently commissioned Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited in Nasarawa State performed by Mr. President, the ASGARD Mining and Processing Plant, Karu, the Nasarawa Technology Village Project in Karu, as well as other numerous investments being carried out in the State were all informed by the outcome of the Summit conducted in 2022.

“It is also heartwarming to state that the Federal Government commissioned the spud-in of the Ebenyi-A Oil Well in Obi Local Government Area of the State. The discovery of Oil and Gas and its subsequent exploration and exploitation will further boost the economic prosperity of our dear country and put Nasarawa State among the comity of Oil producing States.

“I, therefore, call on the investors on Oil and Gas to take advantage of the exploration activities to begin to invest in the sector for the benefit of the society.”

“To ensure full utilisation of our potentials, we have pledged to sustain the Investment Summit in order to further showcase other solid mineral resources which are yet to be identified by interested investors. This is why the theme of this year’s Summit is deliberately coined as ‘The Industrial Renaissance,’ having built some of the key fundamentals required to drive our industrial agenda and present other minerals to our potential investors.”

He explained that the staging of the 2024 Nasarawa Investment Summit,which we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is pertinent to point out that, as a State, we have been deliberate in stimulating our economy, building human capacities, creating wealth and generate employment to our people. It is for this reason that we have adopted our policy document christened ‘Nasarawa Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)’ as a driving force towards the initiation and implementation of various programmes and policies which we have achieved so far.

“I must acknowledge that with the assemblage of the experienced and versatile resource persons to engage the participants on the topics earmarked for discussion, I believe that the outcome of this Summit will go a long way towards actualizing our dream of industrialising Nasarawa State and position it as a leading champion.”

While applauding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his sustained effort in driving the Nigeria economy to prosperity, he said, “I assure Mr. President of our unalloyed loyalty and continued support in order to take our country to greater heights.”

“Let me as always, call on our development partners to continue to invest in Nasarawa State with the view to open the frontiers of economic prosperity for the benefit of all. Indeed, Nasarawa means business.”

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CBN launches strategy to double remittances, grants AIP to 14 new IMTOs

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has activated plans to double foreign-currency remittance flows through formal channels by granting 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) Approval-in-Principle (AIP).

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