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Nigeria’s MPR projected to drop to 12.5% by 2026 amid inflation challenges

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By Sodiq Adelakun

In a forward-looking assessment of Nigeria’s economic policy, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has forecasted a potential easing of the country’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 12.5 percent by the year 2026, provided that inflation rates decline.

This adjustment is anticipated to hold steady for the remainder of the forecast period.

According to the EIU’s latest report, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to gradually relax its stringent monetary policy, initiating rate cuts at the outset of 2026.

This shift is projected despite persistent inflation rates that hover above the CBN’s target range of 6-9 percent. The report elaborates on the conditions leading to this policy shift: “Assuming a reduction in inflation from 2025, we foresee the CBN easing its tight monetary stance.

“Early rate cuts in 2026 are anticipated, even as inflation continues to exceed the CBN’s preferred target band. The policy rate is projected to decrease to 12.5 percent in 2026 and is expected to maintain that level for the rest of the period under review.”

A reduction in the MPR typically results in decreased interest payments on various forms of loans, including those for housing, vehicles, and personal use.

This easing of the financial burden could make it more affordable for Nigerian households to secure funds for significant purchases, potentially boosting consumer expenditure across the nation.

However, as borrowing costs diminish, the yields on savings and other interest-earning investments are also likely to fall.

This scenario may lead to a reduced inclination towards saving in conventional bank accounts, while simultaneously prompting investors to seek higher returns through more speculative asset classes.

For the business sector, lower interest rates could translate into reduced borrowing costs for expansion, equipment upgrades, or other capital investments.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which held on February 26 and 27, 2024, raised the MPR by 400 basis points to 22.75 from 18.75 per cent., adjusted the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +100/-700 from +100/-300 basis points, raised the Cash Reserve Ratio from 32.5 percent to 45.0 per cent, and retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.

“The MPC attaches a large weight to economic growth, and policy will be subject to political interference,” the EIU said.

According to the report, another 100 basis points is likely to be added to the policy rate in 2024, assuming deficit monetisation continues and imported inflationary pressures remain strong. However, our core view is that the CBN will fail to deliver a positive real short-term interest rate as doing so would cause unemployment at a high political cost.

The CBN has mentioned a switch to inflation targeting, but as this would rub up against government economic policy and given the CBN’s record of unorthodox policy, such a framework would have little credibility in anchoring inflation expectations.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 29.9 percent in January 2024, the highest since September 2005, and from 28.92 percent in the prior month, according to data from the CBN.

“Given probable deficit monetisation, negative real short-term interest rates and a 45 percent currency devaluation in February, we forecast that average inflation will rise to 30.3 percent in 2024, from 24.7 percent in 2023,” the report said.

The average inflation rate in 2024 is influenced by the fact that the petrol price increases in June 2023 will no longer be included in the year-on-year calculation starting from mid-2024. This prevents the inflation rate from being even higher.

If the naira stabilises, the average inflation is expected to decrease to 20.7 percent in 2025 and 11.7 percent in 2028. However, inflation will still remain significantly above the target range of 6-9 percent throughout the forecast period.

This is due to anticipated VAT rate hikes, insecurity in agricultural regions leading to higher food prices, Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit, periodic monetization of fiscal deficits, currency depreciation, and a general inclination towards inflation within economic policymaking, as stated in the EIU report.

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NDIC to pay depositors of 96 failed microfinance banks from debt recoveries, others

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The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has said it will pay depositors of closed microfinance and primary mortgage banks after recovering debts from those owing the failed banks, among others.

This was disclosed on Monday by Mr Alfred Ijah of the NDIC Department of Communication and Public Affairs.

Recall that the NDIC had said on Thursday that it obtained winding-up orders for 96 out of 183 microfinance and primary mortgage banks following the withdrawal of their licenses by the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN) in May 2023.

The disclosure was made at a sensitisation seminar for Federal High Court judges in Lagos.

Managing Director of NDIC, Bello Hassan said, “As at date, the Corporation had obtained Winding up Orders for 96 out of 183 Micro Finance and Primary Mortgage Banks whose licenses were revoked by the CBN in May 2023, in less than one Year of revocation.”

“We recognise the judiciary as one of our critical stakeholders. With this, when cases are brought before them, they can receive accelerated hearing and proclamation of Justice.”

Speaking further on the development, Ijah said NDIC’s job does not crystalise without the CBN revoking the license of affected banks that breached some of the laws of the apex bank regulator.

Ijah added that the sale of the affected bank assets and the recovering monies owed by debtors is central to the corporation’s ongoing plans to refund depositors of the affected banks.

He said, “When the license is revoked, and we have a winding up order, after everything is done, what we intend to do is that it gives us power to get into the banks and realise their assets.

“In realising assets, we tend to look for people that are owing the banks, the debtors, their assets and sell so that we can pay depositors.

“The (closed) bank already has assets, buildings, cars, etc. When we say realise the asset, we sell the assets to get all the money we can gather to pay depositors their balance.

“It is from sale of the assets and realization of debts from debtors that we will use to pay those people.”

Ijah said the NDIC does not stop at obtaining a winding-up order.

He explained there are several official and legal steps to be taken to ensure depositors are paid.

“There are different things to be done. If CBN has revoked the license, what it tells you is that we are moving to another phase. We have paid depositors. We have gotten a licence to wind down officially and legally. Then, we start selling assets,” he added.

He added that though the NDIC does not “have control over” the time frame of carrying out the proper closure of the affected banks as well as settlement of depositors, its step-by-step procedures will ensure timely refunds to depositors.

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Finance Ministry hosts workshop to optimise performance of MDAs

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In its avowed determination to enhance efficiency, productivity, and accountability in line with the policy thrust of the present administration, the Federal Ministry of Finance has organised a two-day sensitisation workshop on Performance Management System (PMS) for Directors and their Deputies, designed to improve productivity within the organisation.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, while declaring the workshop open, stated that the event aims at equipping Directors with the knowledge and skills necessary to effectively implement and manage the Performance Management System, aligning with the Ministry’s goals and objectives.

Represented by the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Lydia Shehu Jafiya, Edun stated further that the workshop will provide a platform for Directors to share best practices, challenges, and experiences, fostering a collaborative and supportive environment.

*We are committed to enhancing the performance and effectiveness of our Directors, and this workshop is a crucial step in achieving that goal. We believe that this sensitisation will have a positive impact on the overall performance of our Ministry and ultimately benefit the citizens we serve,” he said.

Edun informed that the PMS was part of the government’s ongoing efforts to reform and modernise the public service, which he said will provide a framework for setting performance standards, monitoring progress, and evaluating the performance of officers in their various workplaces.

He explained that with the PMS, staff will be held accountable for their performance, and their appraisal will be based on clear and measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The system will also provide opportunities for training and development to ensure that staff have the necessary skills and competencies to excel in their roles.

“The PMS is expected to improve the overall performance of the public service, enhance the delivery of public services, and promote a culture of excellence and accountability,” the Minister added.

He expressed optimism that the workshop will equip Directors with the knowledge and skills necessary to implement effective strategies for optimal productivity in their respective Departments.

While charging the Directors to take the workshop seriously, as it is crucial in the realization of the Ministry’s Mandate in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led Administration, Edun emphasised the importance of effective performance management in enhancing accountability, transparency, and productivity in the Ministry.

He expressed his confidence that the workshop will have a positive impact on the performance of the Directors and the Ministry as a whole. The Minister encouraged the participants to be open-minded, engage actively in the discussions, and implement the knowledge and skills acquired in enhancing accountability as well as productivity in their respective Departments.

Earlier in his opening remarks, the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary Special Duties, Mr Okokon Ekanem Udo, stated that the Performance Management System has come to stay and that all staff have key roles to play in institutionalising it.

He stated further that the workshop was imperative as it provides an avenue to share ideas, knowledge, and experience in order to be on the same page regarding the implementation of the Ministry’s Performance Management.

The Permanent Secretary noted that the workshop will enable Directors and their Deputies to deeply reflect on key Result Area (KRAs), objectives and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of their respective Departments/Divisions with a view to restrategising to achieve desired goals in line with the Ministry’s mandate.

Speaking on behalf of Directors, the Director, Economic Research and Policy Management (ERPM), Mrs. Grace Ogbonna described PMS as a move in the right direction as it aims not only at entrenching excellent service delivery to Nigerians but also ensuring the principles of accountability, transparency and imbuement of contemporary methodologies to effectively measure, monitor and optimise our performance in fulfilling our Mandate to the nation.

She thanked the Honourable Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Lydia Shehu Jafiya and the Permanent Secretary, Special Duties of the Ministry of Finance, Mr Okokon Ekanem Udo, for creating an enabling environment for the successful hosting of the event.

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ABCON seeks SEC’s guidance, collaboration in harmonising digital currency’s P2P FX sector

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The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has called for Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC’s) guidance and collaboration in harmonising the peer-to-peer (P2P) forex sector in the country.

In an official courtesy visit to the newly appointed SEC Director-General, Dr. Timi Agama, the President of Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, ABCON, Aminu Gwadabe congratulated the SEC D-G on his appointment by Mr President his excellency Bola Ahmed Tinubu and quickly highlighted that SEC regulates the sector that is a threat to the continued existence of BDCs in Nigeria through online virtual transactions platforms which gives access to millions of Nigerians to trade in foreign exchange without trace and accountability.

He also explained that ABCON has invested in requisite technology to ensure the continued existence of the business and preserve the integrity of the sub-sector. He opined that the future of BDC’s business is digital currency. The National President of ABCON said that the meeting with the SEC DG and the present executive board of the SEC was a follow up on the earlier online virtual consultation.

Gwadabe explained that ABCON is the umbrella body for all licensed retail foreign exchange dealers established in 1991 to liaise with regulators, relevant stakeholders and security agencies for a transparent retail end forex market.

Gwadabe said, “As at today, there are over 34 million Nigerians dealing in digital currency and the number is rising by about 9% with a huge market of $9 billion annually. There are thousands of multichannel virtual currency FX platforms and none is indigenous to Nigeria, adding that P2P represents individual to individual transaction.

“To automate the entire foreign exchange retail market, ABCON has partnered with the Commodities Exchange Board, in building the platform knowing that they have sources of foreign exchange. ABCON is willing to work with SEC towards achieving full automation of the retail end of the foreign exchange market in Nigeria.

“Hence, in line with changing global business trends and ABCON’s compliance efforts towards technological innovation, the association on behalf of its membership would be pleased to be granted license to operate in digital currency transactions. This would entail that whoever has USDT and wants to trade it should approach licensed BDCs for their transactions.”

Gwadabe said, “ABCON is the umbrella body for all licensed retail foreign exchange dealers, which came into existence in 1991. Our objective is to liaise with our regulators, relevant stakeholders and security agencies as one cannot divorce the retail exchange market from the ecosystem of foreign exchange market seeing that BDC market is global and have been in operation before our independence. It has been there before the creation of the central bank of Nigeria.”

Gwadabe explained that the system came under regulation in 1986 during the administration of former President Ibrahim Babangida, who felt the need to formalise the sector through the issuance of license by the then ministry of finance with the objective to formalising the informal sector.

The SEC DG, Dr Timi Agama, responded with a robust understanding of the ABCON chairman’s speech.

He said, “I understand that ABCON is desirous of setting up a digital market platform with the intention to be part of the emerging digital currency ecosystem in Nigeria. We at the SEC are open to help the sector grow for the love of the country therefore there will be meetings with the relevant departments of the SEC to detail methods and strategies that will strengthen the Naira through necessary innovative ideas as shared by ABCON.”

The SEC DG also reiterated that there are new rules put in place to accommodate local intellectuals to develop digital platforms therefore the SEC will cooperate with ABCON in order to achieve the desired objectives.

Dr Timi who is highly knowledgeable about the virtual currency market and the market makers directed that proposed ABCON presentation and the development of ABCON digital market model named Koletyomoni to be finalised as quickly as possible as there are other interests working underground and should be forwarded to SEC technical team for study and timely review.

He emphasised  on the powers of the government through the SEC and that the agency will not hesitate to use its powers where necessary to keep sanity in the issuance, marketing and trading of securities in Nigeria’s capital market.

ABCON’s technical partner, Oluwasegun Kosemani thanked the SEC DG and his intelligently experienced SEC team which had Wale Ajomale for their warm reception while making it known to SEC that much resources have been allocated to the research and development of the platform and “that we are working on collaborating with every emerging verifiable blocks of the blockchain and cryptocurrency ecosystem in Nigeria like BICCoN, CDIN, SIBAN, DCC, Bitcoin organisations, local peer to peer exchanges and merchants etc.”

He continued, “ABCON’s wealth of experience, operations, KYC, Compliance AML all combined in developing the platform which the main objective is to harmonise data, ensure all digital FX merchants whether USDT, crypto-bitcoin come under a very viable and visible platform that would discourage foul play and certainly government would receive substantial revenue from the transparent legitimate transactions the platform will be facilitating by way of convenience of use tax paid by the operators and clients.”

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