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Positive outlook for Africa’s economy as GDP growth to reach 3.8%, 4.2% in 2024, 2025

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…AfDB President lauds 15 African countries for surpassing 5% output growth

By Sodiq Adelakun

Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is predicted to reach an average of 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

This forecast, outlined in the bank’s latest Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report, surpasses the projected global averages of 2.9 percent and 3.2 percent.

The report also highlights that Africa is expected to maintain its position as the second-fastest-growing region, following Asia.

“The top 11 African countries projected to experience strong economic performance forecast are Niger (11.2 percent), Senegal (8.2 percent), Libya (7.9 percent) and Rwanda (7.2 percent).

“Others are Cote d’Ivoire 6.8 percent, Ethiopia 6.7 percent, Benin 6.4 percent, Djibouti 6.2 percent, Tanzania 6.1 percent, Togo 6 percent, and Uganda at six percent,” the report said.

It quoted Dr Akinwumi Adesina, AfDB’s President, as saying “in spite the challenging global and regional economic environment, 15 African countries have posted output expansions of more than five percent.”

Adesina, therefore, called for larger pools of financing and several policy interventions to boost Africa’s growth further.

It was gathered that Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook is a biannual publication released in the first and third quarters of each year.

It complements the existing African Economic Outlook (AEO), which focuses on key emerging policy issues relevant to the continent’s development.

The MEO report provides an up-to-date evidence-based assessment of the continent’s recent macroeconomic performance and short-to-medium-term outlook amid dynamic global economic developments.

Adesina said the latest report called for cautious optimism given the challenges posed by global and regional risks.

He listed the risks to include rising geo-political tensions, increased regional conflicts, and political instability all of which could disrupt trade and investment flows, and perpetuate inflationary pressures.

According to Adesina, fiscal deficits have improved, as faster-than-expected and recovery from the pandemic helped shore up revenue.

“This has led to a stabilisation of the average fiscal deficit at 4.9 per cent in 2023, like 2022, but significantly less than the 6.9 per cent average fiscal deficit of 2020.

“The stabilisation is also due to the fiscal consolidation measures, especially in countries with elevated risks of debt distress.”

The AfDB boss said that with the global economy mired in uncertainty, the fiscal positions of the African continent would continue to be vulnerable to global shocks.

“The report shows that the medium-term growth outlook for the continent’s five regions is slowly improving, a pointer to the continued resilience of Africa’s economies”

Presenting key findings of the report, the AfDB’s Chief Economist and Vice President, Prof. Kevin Urama said growth in Africa’s top-performing economies had benefitted from a range of factors.

Urama said the factors include declining commodity dependence through economic diversification, increasing stra­tegic investment in key growth sectors, rising both public and private consumption, and positive developments in key export markets.

“Africa’s economic growth is projected to regain moderate strength as long as the global economy remains resilient, disinflation continues, investment in infrastructure projects remains buoyant, and progress is sustained on debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation,” he said.

On his part, Amb Albert Muchanga, the  Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals, African Union Commission, said the future of Africa rested on economic integration.

According to Muchanga, our small economies are not competitive in the global market. Moreover, a healthy internal African trade market can ensure value-added and intra-African production of manufactured goods.

He said that the MEO forecast, and recommendations would be made available to African heads of state.

He said the report would be useful when the African Union made its proposals to the G20- an informal gathering of the world’s largest economies to which the Union was admitted in 2023.

“The improved growth figure for 2024 reflects concerted efforts by the continent’s policymakers to drive economic diversification strategies focused on increased investment in key growth sectors.

“And the implementation of domestic policies aimed at consolidating fiscal positions and reversing the increase in the cost of living and boosting private consumption,” Muchanga said.

Also speaking, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Prof Mthuli Ncube described the report as being “on point” and consistent with the reality in his country.

Ncube said it was useful for economic planning across Africa and urged AfDB to continue its thoughtful leadership to help policymakers continue to build resilience to withstand shocks and drive growth.

He said, “Zimbabwe expects slower growth due to climate shocks in the region. Southern African countries depend on agriculture for economic growth, so climate-proofing agriculture is key.

“We are in talks with creditors to restructure its debt, which is slowing economic growth. Internally, the country will focus on economic and governance reforms and reforms around property rights to increase agricultural production.”

According to Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, the Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, around 41 countries in Africa are expected to achieve an economic growth rate of 3.8 percent by 2024.

Sachs also stated that in 13 of these countries, the growth rate would be more than one percentage point higher than in 2023. To achieve a growth rate of 7 percent or more per year, Sachs emphasised the importance of long-term affordable financing as part of Africa’s strategy.

He highlighted that Africa is currently paying a high-risk premium for debt financing and urged the G20 to address this issue.

Sachs suggested that loans to Africa should have a minimum term of 25 years or longer, as short-term borrowing can be detrimental to long-term development.

Additionally, he called for the African Development Bank (AfDB) to be better resourced in order to meet Africa’s financing needs. Sachs serves as the UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ Advocate for Sustainable Development Goals.

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NDIC to pay depositors of 96 failed microfinance banks from debt recoveries, others

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The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has said it will pay depositors of closed microfinance and primary mortgage banks after recovering debts from those owing the failed banks, among others.

This was disclosed on Monday by Mr Alfred Ijah of the NDIC Department of Communication and Public Affairs.

Recall that the NDIC had said on Thursday that it obtained winding-up orders for 96 out of 183 microfinance and primary mortgage banks following the withdrawal of their licenses by the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN) in May 2023.

The disclosure was made at a sensitisation seminar for Federal High Court judges in Lagos.

Managing Director of NDIC, Bello Hassan said, “As at date, the Corporation had obtained Winding up Orders for 96 out of 183 Micro Finance and Primary Mortgage Banks whose licenses were revoked by the CBN in May 2023, in less than one Year of revocation.”

“We recognise the judiciary as one of our critical stakeholders. With this, when cases are brought before them, they can receive accelerated hearing and proclamation of Justice.”

Speaking further on the development, Ijah said NDIC’s job does not crystalise without the CBN revoking the license of affected banks that breached some of the laws of the apex bank regulator.

Ijah added that the sale of the affected bank assets and the recovering monies owed by debtors is central to the corporation’s ongoing plans to refund depositors of the affected banks.

He said, “When the license is revoked, and we have a winding up order, after everything is done, what we intend to do is that it gives us power to get into the banks and realise their assets.

“In realising assets, we tend to look for people that are owing the banks, the debtors, their assets and sell so that we can pay depositors.

“The (closed) bank already has assets, buildings, cars, etc. When we say realise the asset, we sell the assets to get all the money we can gather to pay depositors their balance.

“It is from sale of the assets and realization of debts from debtors that we will use to pay those people.”

Ijah said the NDIC does not stop at obtaining a winding-up order.

He explained there are several official and legal steps to be taken to ensure depositors are paid.

“There are different things to be done. If CBN has revoked the license, what it tells you is that we are moving to another phase. We have paid depositors. We have gotten a licence to wind down officially and legally. Then, we start selling assets,” he added.

He added that though the NDIC does not “have control over” the time frame of carrying out the proper closure of the affected banks as well as settlement of depositors, its step-by-step procedures will ensure timely refunds to depositors.

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Finance Ministry hosts workshop to optimise performance of MDAs

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In its avowed determination to enhance efficiency, productivity, and accountability in line with the policy thrust of the present administration, the Federal Ministry of Finance has organised a two-day sensitisation workshop on Performance Management System (PMS) for Directors and their Deputies, designed to improve productivity within the organisation.

The Honourable Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, while declaring the workshop open, stated that the event aims at equipping Directors with the knowledge and skills necessary to effectively implement and manage the Performance Management System, aligning with the Ministry’s goals and objectives.

Represented by the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Lydia Shehu Jafiya, Edun stated further that the workshop will provide a platform for Directors to share best practices, challenges, and experiences, fostering a collaborative and supportive environment.

*We are committed to enhancing the performance and effectiveness of our Directors, and this workshop is a crucial step in achieving that goal. We believe that this sensitisation will have a positive impact on the overall performance of our Ministry and ultimately benefit the citizens we serve,” he said.

Edun informed that the PMS was part of the government’s ongoing efforts to reform and modernise the public service, which he said will provide a framework for setting performance standards, monitoring progress, and evaluating the performance of officers in their various workplaces.

He explained that with the PMS, staff will be held accountable for their performance, and their appraisal will be based on clear and measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The system will also provide opportunities for training and development to ensure that staff have the necessary skills and competencies to excel in their roles.

“The PMS is expected to improve the overall performance of the public service, enhance the delivery of public services, and promote a culture of excellence and accountability,” the Minister added.

He expressed optimism that the workshop will equip Directors with the knowledge and skills necessary to implement effective strategies for optimal productivity in their respective Departments.

While charging the Directors to take the workshop seriously, as it is crucial in the realization of the Ministry’s Mandate in line with the Renewed Hope Agenda of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led Administration, Edun emphasised the importance of effective performance management in enhancing accountability, transparency, and productivity in the Ministry.

He expressed his confidence that the workshop will have a positive impact on the performance of the Directors and the Ministry as a whole. The Minister encouraged the participants to be open-minded, engage actively in the discussions, and implement the knowledge and skills acquired in enhancing accountability as well as productivity in their respective Departments.

Earlier in his opening remarks, the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary Special Duties, Mr Okokon Ekanem Udo, stated that the Performance Management System has come to stay and that all staff have key roles to play in institutionalising it.

He stated further that the workshop was imperative as it provides an avenue to share ideas, knowledge, and experience in order to be on the same page regarding the implementation of the Ministry’s Performance Management.

The Permanent Secretary noted that the workshop will enable Directors and their Deputies to deeply reflect on key Result Area (KRAs), objectives and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of their respective Departments/Divisions with a view to restrategising to achieve desired goals in line with the Ministry’s mandate.

Speaking on behalf of Directors, the Director, Economic Research and Policy Management (ERPM), Mrs. Grace Ogbonna described PMS as a move in the right direction as it aims not only at entrenching excellent service delivery to Nigerians but also ensuring the principles of accountability, transparency and imbuement of contemporary methodologies to effectively measure, monitor and optimise our performance in fulfilling our Mandate to the nation.

She thanked the Honourable Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Finance, Mrs Lydia Shehu Jafiya and the Permanent Secretary, Special Duties of the Ministry of Finance, Mr Okokon Ekanem Udo, for creating an enabling environment for the successful hosting of the event.

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ABCON seeks SEC’s guidance, collaboration in harmonising digital currency’s P2P FX sector

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The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has called for Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC’s) guidance and collaboration in harmonising the peer-to-peer (P2P) forex sector in the country.

In an official courtesy visit to the newly appointed SEC Director-General, Dr. Timi Agama, the President of Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, ABCON, Aminu Gwadabe congratulated the SEC D-G on his appointment by Mr President his excellency Bola Ahmed Tinubu and quickly highlighted that SEC regulates the sector that is a threat to the continued existence of BDCs in Nigeria through online virtual transactions platforms which gives access to millions of Nigerians to trade in foreign exchange without trace and accountability.

He also explained that ABCON has invested in requisite technology to ensure the continued existence of the business and preserve the integrity of the sub-sector. He opined that the future of BDC’s business is digital currency. The National President of ABCON said that the meeting with the SEC DG and the present executive board of the SEC was a follow up on the earlier online virtual consultation.

Gwadabe explained that ABCON is the umbrella body for all licensed retail foreign exchange dealers established in 1991 to liaise with regulators, relevant stakeholders and security agencies for a transparent retail end forex market.

Gwadabe said, “As at today, there are over 34 million Nigerians dealing in digital currency and the number is rising by about 9% with a huge market of $9 billion annually. There are thousands of multichannel virtual currency FX platforms and none is indigenous to Nigeria, adding that P2P represents individual to individual transaction.

“To automate the entire foreign exchange retail market, ABCON has partnered with the Commodities Exchange Board, in building the platform knowing that they have sources of foreign exchange. ABCON is willing to work with SEC towards achieving full automation of the retail end of the foreign exchange market in Nigeria.

“Hence, in line with changing global business trends and ABCON’s compliance efforts towards technological innovation, the association on behalf of its membership would be pleased to be granted license to operate in digital currency transactions. This would entail that whoever has USDT and wants to trade it should approach licensed BDCs for their transactions.”

Gwadabe said, “ABCON is the umbrella body for all licensed retail foreign exchange dealers, which came into existence in 1991. Our objective is to liaise with our regulators, relevant stakeholders and security agencies as one cannot divorce the retail exchange market from the ecosystem of foreign exchange market seeing that BDC market is global and have been in operation before our independence. It has been there before the creation of the central bank of Nigeria.”

Gwadabe explained that the system came under regulation in 1986 during the administration of former President Ibrahim Babangida, who felt the need to formalise the sector through the issuance of license by the then ministry of finance with the objective to formalising the informal sector.

The SEC DG, Dr Timi Agama, responded with a robust understanding of the ABCON chairman’s speech.

He said, “I understand that ABCON is desirous of setting up a digital market platform with the intention to be part of the emerging digital currency ecosystem in Nigeria. We at the SEC are open to help the sector grow for the love of the country therefore there will be meetings with the relevant departments of the SEC to detail methods and strategies that will strengthen the Naira through necessary innovative ideas as shared by ABCON.”

The SEC DG also reiterated that there are new rules put in place to accommodate local intellectuals to develop digital platforms therefore the SEC will cooperate with ABCON in order to achieve the desired objectives.

Dr Timi who is highly knowledgeable about the virtual currency market and the market makers directed that proposed ABCON presentation and the development of ABCON digital market model named Koletyomoni to be finalised as quickly as possible as there are other interests working underground and should be forwarded to SEC technical team for study and timely review.

He emphasised  on the powers of the government through the SEC and that the agency will not hesitate to use its powers where necessary to keep sanity in the issuance, marketing and trading of securities in Nigeria’s capital market.

ABCON’s technical partner, Oluwasegun Kosemani thanked the SEC DG and his intelligently experienced SEC team which had Wale Ajomale for their warm reception while making it known to SEC that much resources have been allocated to the research and development of the platform and “that we are working on collaborating with every emerging verifiable blocks of the blockchain and cryptocurrency ecosystem in Nigeria like BICCoN, CDIN, SIBAN, DCC, Bitcoin organisations, local peer to peer exchanges and merchants etc.”

He continued, “ABCON’s wealth of experience, operations, KYC, Compliance AML all combined in developing the platform which the main objective is to harmonise data, ensure all digital FX merchants whether USDT, crypto-bitcoin come under a very viable and visible platform that would discourage foul play and certainly government would receive substantial revenue from the transparent legitimate transactions the platform will be facilitating by way of convenience of use tax paid by the operators and clients.”

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