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Uncertain future for Nigerian manufacturers as FX volatility, production costs take toll

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Nigerian manufacturers are facing an uncertain future due to persistent foreign exchange volatility and higher production costs, which have been crippling business activities in recent years.

The situation has left many manufacturers unsure whether to cut down on production or stay in business as they continue to battle rising energy costs, FX volatility, and accelerating inflation that has made it increasingly hard for them to predict their production costs, experts say.

According to Sola Obadimu, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture, the 2024 manufacturing outlook remains dim as long as the government fails to stabilise the naira and deal with security issues.

The situation has left many manufacturers in a precarious position, with some considering shutting down their operations due to the high cost of production.

The persistent foreign exchange volatility has made it difficult for manufacturers to import raw materials, which has led to a shortage of inputs and a decline in production. This has resulted in a reduction in the number of goods available in the market, leading to higher prices for consumers.

The rising energy costs have also been a major challenge for manufacturers, with many struggling to pay their electricity bills.

This has led to a decline in production and a loss of jobs, which has further worsened the economic situation in the country. The government has been urged to take urgent action to address the challenges facing manufacturers in the country.

This includes stabilising the naira, providing incentives for local production, and addressing security issues that have been affecting businesses in the country.

Failure to take action could lead to a further decline in the manufacturing sector, which could have serious implications for the Nigerian economy.

“Naira needs to be stable for manufacturers to plan and budget their inputs and outputs,” Obadimu said, adding that producers are being forced to produce at reduced capacity or shut down operations amid declining consumer purchasing power.

“Consumer demand level is elastic, so you cannot just increase prices anytime you want to because their wages are also declining,” he said in a response to questions.

The naira has lost 49.11 percent of its value against the dollar in 2023 at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market, data compiled by BusinessDay from the FMDQ indicated.

The worsening FX volatility is inflicting more pain on businesses as the cost of production doubled amid low demand from cash-strapped consumers dealing with inflationary pressures.

“The outlook for the manufacturing sector in 2024 may not be a positive one, at least in the first half of the year,” Segun Ajayi-Kadir, director-general of the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (MAN), said in a statement from the association.

“The period will be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter,” he said, adding that the envisaged recovery is highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported with a synthesis of domestic growth-driven, export-focused, and offensive trade strategies.

“This will promote resilience and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year,” he said.

Apart from F volatility and higher costs, the country’s huge infrastructure gaps are also increasing the burden of doing business in Africa’s most populous country.

The availability of adequate infrastructure is a major determinant of the success of every country’s industrial sector; however, Nigeria does not have adequate infrastructure to grow businesses, especially developed transport systems such as roads and railways connected to the nation’s seaports.

Energy is a key element of the production process. Nigeria’s inability to supply and distribute sufficient electricity has left businesses at the mercy of generators powered by diesel and petrol, whose prices have surged in recent months.

Manufacturers spend 40 percent of their total production cost on generating energy for their businesses, according to MAN.

In a June 2023 statement, the association put the annual economic loss caused by inadequate power supply at N10 trillion, accounting for almost two percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

While the government has pledged commitments to power projects including the Siemens Energy initiative and enhance the reliability of transmission lines towards addressing power shortages in the country, experts have stressed the urgent need to address the structure of the power sector.

“The government needs to consider bringing private sector investment into the transmission segment of the power sector,” Chinyere Almona, director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in a statement following President Bola Tinubu’s New Year Address.

“This would ensure adequate technical and financial capacity for a well-functioning sector to power economic growth,” she said.

The rising cost of energy and FX pushed the country’s inflation rate to an 18-year high of 28.2 percent in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The challenging macroeconomic issues impacted the manufacturing sector as its growth rate slowed to 0.48 percent in the third quarter of 2023, lower than 2.20 percent in the preceding quarter and 1.61 percent in Q1.

“The two biggest changes to our manufacturing sector are the huge exposure to the external sector, specifically imported raw materials, and the rising burden of high energy cost,” said Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer at the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise.

“The sector outlook will depend to a large extent on the stability of the foreign exchange market and the related forex liquidity,” he said, adding that with the extent to which the CBN had demonstrated a clear commitment to the stabilisation of the foreign exchange market, the outlook may be more on the upside in 2024.

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Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 33.69% in April 2024

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In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Comparing year-on-year data, the inflation rate in April 2024 was 11.47 percent points higher than in April 2023, where it stood at 22.22 percent. This indicates that the headline inflation rate has risen significantly over the past year.

Additionally, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.29 percent, which is 0.73 percent lower than the 3.02 percent recorded in March 2024. This suggests that the rate at which prices increased in April 2024 was slower than the rate in March 2024.

In April 2024, the food inflation rate reached 40.53 percent on a year-on-year basis, marking a substantial increase of 15.92 percentage points from the 24.61 percent recorded in April 2023. This significant rise in food inflation can be attributed to higher prices for several items including millet flour, garri, bread, prepacked wheat flour, and semovita, all of which belong to the Bread and Cereals class, as well as for yam tuber, water yam, and cocoyam and others.

For the year ending in April 2024, the average annual rate of food inflation stood at 32.74 percent, representing an increase of 9.52 percentage points over the 23.22 percent average annual rate recorded in April 2023.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, reached 26.84 percent in April 2024 on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 6.87 percent from the 19.96 percent recorded in April 2023. The most significant price rises were observed in actual and imputed rentals for housing, motorcycle journeys, bus journeys within a city (under Passenger Transport by Road Class), consultation fees for medical doctors, X-ray photography (under Medical Services Class), and accommodation services.

On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.20 percent in April 2024, down from 2.54 percent in March 2024, representing a decrease of 0.34 percent. The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 22.84 percent, which is 5.15 percentage points higher than the 17.70 percent recorded in April 2023.

In April 2024, the urban inflation rate on a year-on-year basis reached 36.00 percent, which is 12.61 percentage points higher than the 23.39 percent recorded in April 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate for April 2024 was 2.67 percent, showing a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from the 3.17 percent seen in March 2024. The average urban inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 30.02 percent, marking an increase of 8.53 percentage points from the 21.50 percent reported in April 2023.

In April 2024, the rural inflation rate was 31.64 percent on a year-on-year basis, which is 10.50 percentage points higher than the 21.14 percent seen in April 2023.

On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate for April 2024 was 1.92 percent, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the 2.87 percent recorded in March 2024. The average rural inflation rate over the twelve months ending in April 2024 was 26.38 percent, which represents an increase of 6.20 percentage points from the 20.18 percent reported in April 2023.

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Governor Sule woos investors to invest in Nasarawa, assures of inclusive economy

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…Counts gains of previous edition of investment summit

By Matthew Denis, Lafia

The Governor of Nasarawa state, Engr. Abdullahi Sule has taken steps to woo investors to invest in the state  at the ongoing Nasarawa Investment Summit.

Delivering his opening speech, Governor Sule disclosed that the state is expanding the existing industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards a better economy.

He said, “What we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is with a sense of fulfillment and responsibility that I address you today on the occasion of the Nasarawa Investment Summit, 2024.

“I must acknowledge our most cherished investors and other development partners, who are here to be part of this auspicious occasion. I have no doubt that the coming together of these distinguished and eminent personalities will, no doubt offer us the opportunities to continue to map the future of our State economic landscape in our relentless commitment to explore business opportunities and forge investment partnerships across business endeavour.”

The Governor stressed that it is pertinent to remind you that Nasarawa State organised the first edition of the Nasarawa Investment Summit in 2022 under the theme “Diamond in the Rough: The Making of a New Investment Frontier,” aimed at ushering investment and showcasing our mineral resources to potential investors.

“I am happy to state that the outcome of the Summit informed the influx of investors into the State Who are variously harnessing our God-given endowment.

“Interestingly, the recently commissioned Avatar New Energy Materials Company Limited in Nasarawa State performed by Mr. President, the ASGARD Mining and Processing Plant, Karu, the Nasarawa Technology Village Project in Karu, as well as other numerous investments being carried out in the State were all informed by the outcome of the Summit conducted in 2022.

“It is also heartwarming to state that the Federal Government commissioned the spud-in of the Ebenyi-A Oil Well in Obi Local Government Area of the State. The discovery of Oil and Gas and its subsequent exploration and exploitation will further boost the economic prosperity of our dear country and put Nasarawa State among the comity of Oil producing States.

“I, therefore, call on the investors on Oil and Gas to take advantage of the exploration activities to begin to invest in the sector for the benefit of the society.”

“To ensure full utilisation of our potentials, we have pledged to sustain the Investment Summit in order to further showcase other solid mineral resources which are yet to be identified by interested investors. This is why the theme of this year’s Summit is deliberately coined as ‘The Industrial Renaissance,’ having built some of the key fundamentals required to drive our industrial agenda and present other minerals to our potential investors.”

He explained that the staging of the 2024 Nasarawa Investment Summit,which we are witnessing today will further expand our existing pathways to leverage on the industrial, agricultural and mining sectors towards enhancing inclusive and sustainable wealth creation and economic prosperity.

“It is pertinent to point out that, as a State, we have been deliberate in stimulating our economy, building human capacities, creating wealth and generate employment to our people. It is for this reason that we have adopted our policy document christened ‘Nasarawa Economic Development Strategy (NEDS)’ as a driving force towards the initiation and implementation of various programmes and policies which we have achieved so far.

“I must acknowledge that with the assemblage of the experienced and versatile resource persons to engage the participants on the topics earmarked for discussion, I believe that the outcome of this Summit will go a long way towards actualizing our dream of industrialising Nasarawa State and position it as a leading champion.”

While applauding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his sustained effort in driving the Nigeria economy to prosperity, he said, “I assure Mr. President of our unalloyed loyalty and continued support in order to take our country to greater heights.”

“Let me as always, call on our development partners to continue to invest in Nasarawa State with the view to open the frontiers of economic prosperity for the benefit of all. Indeed, Nasarawa means business.”

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CBN launches strategy to double remittances, grants AIP to 14 new IMTOs

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has activated plans to double foreign-currency remittance flows through formal channels by granting 14 new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) Approval-in-Principle (AIP).

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