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From COP27 to COP28: Key factors for Africa ahead of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference

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By Tshepo Ntsane

The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) represents an important international forum for countries to gather to discuss and address global climate change issues. However, to date these conferences have tended to be high level and process based, and COP 27 was no exception – negotiations took place and some of the highlights included the historic establishment of the loss and damage fund which was seen as setting a precedent for climate justice. However, agreements on other matters such as phasing out of fossil fuels and setting peaking periods for emissions were not achieved. For African countries in particular, COP 28 marks an important pivot point around funding, just transition and the Nairobi Declaration. There will be a push for realisations on commitments made, and innovative funding mechanisms to drive accelerated climate action now and beyond.

Making good on promises

During previous COPs significant commitments were made by developed countries around funding and financial support to help developing nations transition. COP27 saw a funding announcement of about $105 million by eight donor governments to support countries facing the worst effects of climate change, including Senegal, The Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe. The pledge adds new funding to the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), augmenting the $413 million pledged by 12 other donor countries at COP26.

However, while numerous promises have been made, no concrete action has yet been taken. Of the commitments made at COP15 to provide $100 billion a year to developing countries for climate action, only a quarter – has been achieved. In addition, one of the main concerns raised with the financing is the fact that a large proportion are structured as loans, thereby imposing a debt burden on already debt-stressed developing countries. Other issues include transparency of the agreements and timelines for the funding. For many African countries to move forward, these challenges need to be addressed. This will likely be a topic of focus at COP28, as countries in the region look to achieve their own targets for carbon and emissions reduction.

Not just about transition

For many developing countries in Africa still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, the issue of transition is not limited to cleaner, environmentally friendly sources of fuel. Entire communities are often built around fossil fuels, such as in South Africa where, in the Mpumalanga province, entire local economies are dependent on the mining of coal. When coal-based fuels are phased out and coal mines closed, the impact on people in the coal value chain, including these vulnerable communities and economies that are built around coal mines, will be significant.

A just transition also involves the reskilling and upskilling of people reliant on coal for their livelihood to ensure they remain productive members of society who contribute to the economy. The timing and funding of skills development initiatives are still up for debate.

Funding the commitments

Climate resilience is something all countries are looking to implement, but countries in Africa have unique challenges as well as unique resources and strengths that we need to play to. During COP27 the concept of carbon credit markets and carbon offset schemes emerged, which would allow companies to buy carbon credits to offset their own emissions. This would not only open up a potential market for carbon offset projects and investment opportunities for developing countries, it would also help to channel resources into projects that deliver real benefits.

However, once again the issue of transition reaches beyond transition to transforming African economies. This starts with access to clean energy. The Nairobi Declaration proposes new financing mechanisms to help countries in Africa unlock funding for transition and promote sustainable use of resources to help the region contribute toward global decarbonisation. One of the declarations from the Climate Summit in Kenya included a call for developed countries to honour their commitment to provide $100 billion in annual climate finance, as promised 14 years ago at the Copenhagen conference. Furthermore, it included proposals for new debt relief and restructuring interventions and instruments such as extension of sovereign debt tenor and inclusion of a 10-year grace period.

COP28 will need to see developed countries make good on their funding commitments, while Africa moves forward with an aligned strategy to ensure just transition without leaving anybody behind.

Tshepo Ntsane is a Sustainable Finance Transactor at Rand Merchant Bank

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Opinion

Gov. Council: Profiling FUNAAB’s Pro-Chancellor, Aragbiji, as Tinubu inaugurates eduboards

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By Dr Jimoh Olorede

Tomorrow, Thursday, Idris Abdulkadir Auditorium of the National University Commission (NUC) in the Federal Capital City of Abuja, will be agog as the Federal Government of Nigeria led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, inaugurates the newly constituted Governing Councils of Federal Universities, Polytechnics and Colleges of Education under the Federal Ministry of Education headed by Hon. Minister, Professor Tahir Mamman.

One of the prominent appointees into the Federal Education Boards, not just as a member, but a Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Governing Council, is a revered and foremost traditional ruler from Osun State, His Royal Majesty Aragbiji of Iragbiji, Oba Abdur-Rasheed Ayotunde Olabomi Odundun IV. However, following a comprehensive review of the initially approved Board members’ list as directed by President Bola Tinubu, Oba Olabomi’s Pro-Chancellorship appointment has now been changed from the Federal University of Education (AFUED) Ondo, to the Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta (FUNAAB). The profile of this great Monarch, as given below, suffices as it justifies the informed decision of Mr. President.

Oba Abdur-Rasheed Ayotunde Olabomi Odundun IV, was born on Monday, October 29, 1962 into the Ajibode Ruling House, Iragbiji, in Boripe Local Government of Osun State. He ascended to the throne as the 15th Aragbiji of Iragbiji in 2008.

The Monarch’s early life was marked by a strong emphasis on education. He commenced his primary education at the Local Authority Primary School, Poika Luku in Ife South Local Government of Osun State, and completed it at the Local Education Authority (LEA) Primary School, Kawo, Kaduna, in Kaduna State, in 1975. The then young Prince came back home for his Secondary School education which took him to Oke-Iragbiji Grammar School, where he graduated in 1980.

In 1983, he proceeded to Adeyemi College Ondo, where he studied History Education, and graduated in 1987. The Aragbiji later in 1992, sought admission into the prestigious University of Ilorin for a postgraduate academic pursuit, and in 1994, he was awarded Masters in Public Administration (MPA). Oba Ayotunde likes education so much that in 2006, he applied and was admitted by the National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN) to study Law, being his post-secondary preferred course of study. However, his serious commitment, traditional engagement and royal itineraries consequent upon his appointment and installation as the 15th Aragbiji in 2008, when he was already at 300 Level into his Law programme, could not take him further.

Until his royal accession in 2008, Oba Abdur-Rasheed was on the Local Government Service Commission starting from Oyo State in 1989, before the creation of Osun State in 1991, and rose through the promotion cadre to become a Director of Personnel Management, from where he left for the royalty. The Aragbiji’s ascension to the throne marked a new era for the kingdom, as he brought a fresh perspective and innovative ideas to the traditional institution.

Under his leadership, Iragbiji has witnessed significant development and growth. Oba Abdur-Rasheed has prioritised infrastructure development, education, and youth empowerment. He has also promoted cultural heritage and traditional practices, ensuring the preservation of the kingdom’s rich history and customs.

Oba Abdur-Rasheed is a respected figure in Osun State and beyond. He has received numerous awards and honours for his contributions to community development and traditional leadership, including Fellowship of the Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (FCIPM), Fellowship of the Chartered Institute of Management (FCIM), and Fellowship of the Adeyemi Federal University of Education (FAFUED) Ondo in Ondo State, Nigeria. The seasoned administrator Oba is also a Fellow of the Osun State College of Technology (OSCOTECH) Esa-Oke, and Member of the Nigeria Institute of Public Relations (NIPR), among other several awards of recognition too numerous to mention.

As a prominent member of the Osun State Council of Obas, Oba Abdur-Rasheed plays a vital role in promoting unity and cooperation among traditional rulers in the state. His wisdom and counsel are highly valued by his peers and humanity generally.

Despite his royal status, the Aragbiji is known for his humility and accessibility. He is beloved by his subjects, who appreciate his dedication to their welfare and well-being. His palace is always open to those seeking guidance, support, or a directional cause of action.

In his personal life, Oba Abdur-Rasheed is a devoted husband and father. He enjoys reading, travelling, and community service. His commitment to public service and traditional leadership has made him a shining example for future generations. Another sterling quality of the great Monarch is that he’s an excellent public Speaker. He travels far and wide with a handful of national and international network of social connections.

His Royal Majesty is a visionary leader and a champion of community development. His reign has brought significant progress and growth to Iragbiji, and his wisdom and counsel are highly valued throughout Osun State, Nigeria, and far beyond.

The President’s appointment of this great Monarch, the Aragbiji of Iragbiji, as Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council of the Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta (FUNAAB) has been applauded by his subjects both at home and in the diaspora, and indeed, many Nigerians given the meritorious qualifications of the energetic traditional ruler, and it’s on the credit of his merit that this icon of an enviable royalty is celebrated and congratulated.

Dr. Olorede is Head of Strategic Communication and Media Studies Department in a Nigerian Federal Institution. He writes in via [email protected]

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Opinion

The Atlantic initiative: Foundations, characteristics, and geopolitical identity

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By Mohamed Bouden

According to World Bank estimates, the interest in the Atlantic Ocean is constantly growing, driven by the desire to exploit its opportunities and capitalise on shared benefits to address global challenges.

Oceans play a crucial role in the global economy, contributing $1.5 trillion each year, a figure that is expected to double by 2030 to over $3 trillion. This projected expansion is also expected to create nearly 50 million jobs in the sustainable maritime economy sector in Africa, while contributing approximately $21 billion to Latin America’s gross domestic product.

King Mohammed VI’s vision for the Atlantic:

King Mohammed VI’s vision for the Atlantic, in collaboration with international and regional partners, represents a bold and innovative approach for the Afro-Atlantic region. This vision seeks to harness the human and natural resources of the area through a collective initiative aimed at bolstering development catalysts, enhancing maritime transportation infrastructure, and promoting investment in energy and maritime economy-related value chains.

Morocco’s Contribution to the Atlantic Initiative: Morocco, intrinsically tied to the Atlantic through its geopolitical identity, assumes a pivotal role in advancing an African viewpoint centred on the Atlantic coast, thereby enhancing dialogue and solidifying enduring relationships. As Africa’s foremost trade ally for numerous principal nations within the Euro-Atlantic area and the leading African investor in West Africa, Morocco sustains robust ties with African nations along this strategic front. Demonstrating Morocco’s enduring dedication to these partnerships, King Mohammed VI has undertaken 38 visits to 15 countries across the Afro-Atlantic region since 1999.

The Emergence of the Integration Initiative on the Atlantic Facade of Africa:

The emergence of the integration initiative on the Atlantic facade of Africa reflects the commitment of many regional actors to building a common and open platform for collaboration, dialogue, and exchange. The objective is to strengthen the competitive capacities of the 23 countries involved in order to effectively respond to the challenges of the current international arena. This initiative aims to make the African Atlantic coast a vector of security solutions, economic opportunities, and investment, within the framework of what is known as the ocean economy. The Atlantic offers a favourable environment for establishing significant links with other Atlantic regions, including the United States, Western Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean. This dynamic is partly explained by the fact that the Atlantic Ocean is today considered one of the most stable and busiest in terms of maritime trade, compared to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The Advantages of Policy Integration and Harmonisation:

Efforts aimed at integrating and harmonising policies provide countries with enhanced competitive conditions, thereby bolstering opportunities for diversifying partnerships and expanding economic prospects. Additionally, they play a role in safeguarding shared interests against fluctuations in international markets and geopolitical shifts.

The Added Value of an Afro-Atlantic Cooperation Initiative:

Although some countries on the African Atlantic coast have significant individual resources, an Afro-Atlantic cooperation initiative could add value to the intrinsic strength of each country. This initiative is not limited to a traditional approach to integration, but adopts an enlightened vision of geopolitics that is both African and Atlantic, encompassing countries from four geopolitical regions of the continent: north, west, centre, and south. Its objective is to extend the Atlantic cooperation model by launching projects aimed at bringing about a fundamental transformation throughout this space. It is in this context that the Morocco-Nigeria gas pipeline project fits in, which encompasses 13 African countries bordering the Atlantic and totaling 440 million inhabitants. With an ambitious infrastructure exceeding 5,660 km of gas pipeline towards Western Europe, this project could become a key element of shared prosperity in the Atlantic, while symbolising the meeting between two continents and paving the way for development and energy.

The Four Strategic Priorities of the Afro-Atlantic Initiative:

  1. Create an Afro-Atlantic space that strengthens stability and peace through security solutions.
  2. Establish an Afro-Atlantic space with a competitive advantage in value chains.

III. Promote a sustainable Afro-Atlantic space by fostering social, environmental, and economic development, particularly in the areas of the green and digital economy, as well as in addressing the challenges of food, water, and energy security.

  1. Develop an Afro-Atlantic space that values its potential as an attractive pole facing the global South.

Thus, it is certain that international actors outside the African continent will be attentive to the opportunities presented by the Atlantic initiative and its contribution to the overall vision for the region’s development. This international cooperation project spans over 11,000 km, from Tangier to Cape Town via Lagos. A notable example of this international interest is the American initiative that has placed the Atlantic at the heart of deliberations, involving 32 coastal countries (which are now 38) from four continents. This initiative was launched in September 2023 during a statement on Atlantic cooperation on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, with the participation of 15 African Atlantic coastal countries at this meeting.

Regarding the expected economic and geopolitical benefits of the Afro-Atlantic initiative, four key benefits can be highlighted:

  1. Enhance collaboration across the Atlantic coastline of Africa, positively influencing the domestic economies of the participating nations. Six of Africa’s largest economies are situated along the Atlantic, accounting for 55 percent of the continent’s overall GDP and producing 57 percent of the trade within Africa, in addition to attracting 60 percent of the foreign direct investment. This concentration of economic activity generates heightened global attention towards this area.
  2. Increase the bargaining power of the Atlantic coastal countries with international powers, cooperation institutions, and regional forums to secure financial support for regional projects and defend regional interests in a realistic and pragmatic manner.

III. Highlight the strategic importance of the Atlantic in Africa for the development of value chains specific to this area and stimulate increased interest in addressing gaps in infrastructure and investment.

  1. Create an open and innovative platform to strengthen South-South cooperation and achieve a fundamental transformation across the Atlantic space, by promoting convergence between four continents (Africa, Europe, North and South America). The goal is to make the Atlantic a space of partnership for progress and peace, to accompany dynamic developments, especially since 46 percent of the African population lives in Atlantic coastal countries, largely young people who constitute a driving force in the labour market and a significant base for consumption.

The Kingdom of Morocco plays a central role in the Afro-Atlantic initiative, acting as a cornerstone and driving force for its proactive approach. This is demonstrated by its leadership in several key areas: hosting the General Secretariat of the initiative in Rabat, serving as the central coordinating body. Spearheading ministerial meetings, including those held during the 78th United Nations General Assembly in New York and the latest meeting in Rabat in July 2023.

Furthermore, Nigeria, Cape Verde, and Gabon have been entrusted with developing comprehensive action plans addressing critical areas such as: security and political cooperation ; combating terrorism and transnational crime ; Mitigating maritime piracy and illegal immigration ; Promoting the blue economy and maritime connectivity ; addressing energy needs, sustainable development, and marine environment protection.

The Afro-Atlantic initiative stands as the most significant and ambitious strategic vision for Africa to date. To ensure its success, three key elements are crucial:  Implementation of concrete cooperation projects that deliver tangible benefits to participating nations ; Strengthening tripartite partnerships by collaborating with interested international actors who can contribute expertise and resources ; Establishing long-term objectives that guide the initiative towards achieving economic integration, political convergence, and enhanced competitiveness for the region.

Ultimately, the Afro-Atlantic initiative emphasises the enduring principle: unity is strength. By working together, the participating nations can harness their collective potential to shape a more prosperous and secure future for Africa.

Bouden is an expert in contemporary international affairs

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Opinion

States and minimum wage: A call for reason

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By Bajowa Oni

It is hard to argue that, considering current economic realities, an update of the minimum wage is not necessary.When the current administration came into office a year ago, inflation was at 22 percent. It now stands at 33 percent, with food inflation higher than 40 percent. Nigerians bear the brunt of these increases daily at markets across the country, and many families have had to cut their expenditure to fit the times.

The need to reflect the cost of living in the new minimum wage is at the heart of the tussle between organised labour, led by the NLC and TUC on one hand, and the government and private sector on the other hand.

Labour’s starting position was N615,000 per month, but has now moderated to around N200,000 per month after several rounds of negotiations. The federal government, for its part, has proposed N60,000, a position which the NLC has rejected as a starvation wage, leaving both parties wide apart.

The government also insisted on its position because it was offering a series of non-monetary incentives, including:

1) N35,000 wage award for all treasury-paid Federal workers.

2) N100 billion naira for the procurement of CNG-fuelled buses and CNG conversion kits.

3) N125 billion naira conditional grant and financial inclusion to MSMEs.

4) N25,000 each to be shared to 15 million households for 3 months.

5) N185 billion palliatives (loans to States) to cushion the effects of fuel subsidy removal.

6) N200 billion naira to support the cultivation of hectares of land to boost food production.

7) N75 billion naira to strengthen the manufacturing sector.

8) N1 trillion naira for student loans for higher education.

9) Release of 42,000 metric tons of grains from strategic reserves.

10) Purchase and onward distribution of 60,000 metric tons of Rice from the rice millers association.

11) Recent salary increase of 25-35 percent on all consolidated Salary structures for federal workers.

However, apart from the reality of Nigeria’s inflation, there is also the issue of the ability of states to pay the minimum wage. Nigeria’s states are in a slightly different position from the federal government and the private sector. The Federal Government can print more money to do what labour wants, with all the damage that will do to the economy. The private sector companies who will be affected by the minimum wage increase can do a range of things as well: they can raise prices, sachetise their offerings, layoff staff, or failing all else, simply close shop as many firms have already done. For states, it is different.

They cannot print money and there are limits to the debt they can take on. As a result, they will have to rely on a loan of some sort from the government to meet their wage obligations. There is already precedent for this.

Not all fingers are equal.

The last time the minimum wage was increased was in 2019, when it was raised to N30,000. It is worth noting that as recently as May 2022, three years after adoption, seven states were yet to implement the minimum wage. Part of this is because states do not generate enough revenue internally to be able to implement the minimum wage, as well as the adjustments across all cadres that often results. Most states still depend on the monthly federal allocations to function.

In fact, only three states — Lagos, Ogun and Akwa Ibom — generate more in internal revenue than they receive in federal allocations, according to BudgIT, a fiscal transparency organisation.

The case has been made previously that states should be able to determine their own minimum wage based on their respective financial positions, which vary significantly.

According to BudgIT’s 2023 State of States report, Lagos generates N43,386 in IGR per capita, more than double the figure of Rivers State in second place with N21,422. As far as that measure is concerned, Rivers is closer to Zamfara (N1,191) in last place than it is to Lagos.

These wide disparities mean that any minimum wage discussion that does not consider the ability of all the 36 states to pay, will only result in a pyrrhic victory that benefits far fewer workers than first thought.

Earlier this June, a source who was privy to the discussions of the Nigerian Governors Forum about the minimum wage revealed that only ten states can afford the proposed minimum wage of N62,000.

The states are: Lagos, Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, Ogun, Kano, and Kaduna. The source also added that compelling the states to pay such a wage could lead to layoffs across the affected states. It will be no surprise to realise that the states who can afford the proposed minimum wage are the ones with the most revenues overall. It will be recalled that Edo State is already paying N70,000 minimum wage to workers in the state, which commenced in April. This is an example of a state government looking at its finances and arriving at a proactive solution to address the cost-of-living crisis. However, the new minimum wage is not for only one state or ten states. It is for the whole country.

The focus therefore, should be a sustainable minimum wage that all states can pay. Failure to do this will lead to the FG giving budget support to states who cannot afford the new wage.

When that budget support runs out, default will become the norm and workers in many states will go back to square one.

So much for so few

Another reason why the minimum wage adjustment is so contentious is not just because of the wage itself, but because of the consequential adjustment that results. The new wage applies to civil servants on Grade levels 1 to 6, but Grades 7 to 17 also get an adjustment as well, leading to a significant effect on the personnel costs of the states. At the last increment, civil servants from Grades 7-17 got increases ranging from 10-23 percent.

Under a scenario of a N70,000 minimum wage, the wage bill of states is expected to increase by 70 percent on average, a huge jump. In a N150,000 scenario which will be more appealing to Labour, that wage bill will go up three and a half times or 250 percent. On top of this, remittances from the NNPC have dried up because petrol subsidy is back. This means that the states have less funds to satisfy the minimum wage demands. The current petrol subsidy is around N500 per litre ex-depot, one of the biggest differentials in the subsidy scheme’s history. Sustaining it comes with costs at every level.

Already, a relatively small percentage of people get a significant portion of the state’s revenues as salaries and pensions, leaving little for things like infrastructure, education and healthcare. An increase in the minimum wage will ensure that a fraction of the population gets an even larger chunk of revenues at state and federal levels.

Recurrent expenditure – of which wages are a central component – is already sky-high. As of 2022, recurrent expenditure as a percentage of total revenue averages 89 percent for the 36 states, leaving little for important capital expenditure that is necessary to drive governance outcomes. A new minimum wage with the current fiscal reality will only worsen this picture. It will mean that states exist to pay salaries and pensions, with little fiscal space for anything else.

While it is certainly true that organised labour has the responsibility to cater to their members, which total only about two million people, their push for higher wages can easily see them become part of the problem rather than the solution, if those wages are unaffordable and also take resources away from other areas that need urgent attention.

In trying to fix one problem, it is important not to do things that will make other problems worse.

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