Spree of killings: Why new Nigerian Govt must fight head-on
June 2021, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projected about 1.1 million lives could be lost by 2030, if the insurgency ravaging Nigeria’s North-east region is not put to an end. The UNDP in its report also said the conflict in the war-torn states of Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe “had increased by 10 times killing nearly 350,000 people as of the end of 2020.”
In August 2019, the insurgency led by extremist Islamic groups was estimated to have killed an estimated 35,000 in the North-east parts of Nigeria since the beginning of the conflict in 2009. The UN report in 2021 titled, ‘Assessing the Impact of Conflict on Development in North-east Nigeria,’ had said that critical aspect of progress and development, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), poverty, malnutrition, infant mortality, education, water availability and sanitation, may not return to pre-conflict levels in the region even by 2030.
According to the report, findings show that “for each casualty caused directly by insurgency, an additional nine people, primarily children, have lost their lives due to a lack of food and resources – and more than 90 per cent of conflict-attributable deaths are of children under the age of five.” The report further noted that the economic destruction brought by the insurgency “has dismantled already fragile health and food systems with less than 60 per cent of health facilities in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states are fully functional, while a quarter is either destroyed or non-functional.”
“Without continued investment in development as a long-term solution, the protracted conflict in North-east Nigeria will continue to impact other parts of the country and the entire Sahel region,” the UNDP had said. According to the report, “the conflicts in the three states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe that recorded deaths of 35,000 at the end of 2019, increased by 10 times at nearly 350,000 deaths through the end of 2020, with 314,000 of those from indirect causes.”
The index had added that “for every year that conflict continues; infants and children are the most impacted – with about 170 children under five years die daily – and by 2030, it is estimated to grow by 240.” It had reported that women and children make up 80 per cent of the displaced population in the North-east and have limited options for work and survival, including difficulties accessing resources. In 2020, findings from the report estimates that 1.8 million students are out of school who would have been enrolled if not for conflict.
“By 2030, in the conflict scenario, the average Nigerian in the BAY states will have had a full year (20 per cent) of education less than expected in the No Conflict scenario. As of 2019, 81 per cent of people living in Yobe, 64 per cent in Borno, and 60 per cent in Adamawa suffer from multidimensional poverty, a measure that accounts for deprivation with respect to standards of living, health, and education,” the UNDP had noted.
While the projections of the loss of about 1.1 million lives by 2030 looks gory amid other socio economic adverse effects, it is a subject of worry that not much has been done to step down the tide. Reports of killings from terror attacks have not shown pragmatic moves taken to reverse the projection. For some days now, reports of gory attacks have been rife. In a fresh wave of attacks on Sunday night, assailants killed at least eight persons including an eight-month-old infant, in Farin Lamba, a community in Vwang District of Jos South Local Government Area of Plateau State. The gory incident came two days after another attack on Sabon Gari, a community in Mangu Local Government of the State, left several persons dead and houses burnt. Spokesperson of Berom Youth Moulders, Rwang Tengwong, had said the attackers arrived in a Vectra vehicle at about 9:45 p.m. and shot sporadically; killing at least eight and injuring many more.
In response to the killings, President Bola Tinubu in a statement titled ‘Plateau killings: we must break this cycle of violence,’ expressed sadness and grief over the incident, condemning the killings in Mangu and parts of Benue State. President Tinubu, on Tuesday in Abuja, who described as “unfortunate” the killing of the eight-month-old infant in the recent violence in Plateau and Benue states, north-central Nigeria, directed security agencies to fish out the masterminds of the killings, insisting that they be made to face the full wrath of the law.
“It is most unfortunate that in this orgy of violence, an innocent eight-month-old baby in Farin Lamba community of Vwang District, Jos South Local Government, died in a conflict she knew nothing about,” a statement signed by the President’s Special Adviser on Special Duties, Communications, and Strategy, Dele Alake, read on Tuesday. The President who described the festering reprisal attacks as “needless and avoidable” said, “A major consequence of perennial conflict is always the tragic loss of innocent lives.”
“To build virile, peaceful, and prosperous communities demand tolerance and forgiveness for every perceived wrongdoing,” he added. To rebuild trust and restore harmony to these conflict areas, President Tinubu urged community leaders, religious leaders, traditional rulers, socio-cultural organisations as well as the leadership of the Arewa Consultative Forum, Jama’atu Nasril Islam, and the Christian Association of Nigeria to work together to help foster genuine and long-lasting peace.
Recall that Tinubu had in his inaugural speech mentioned security would take top priority of his government. Following the spree of recent killings, Tinubu while reaffirming his government’s strong determination to stamp out violent crimes and all forms of criminalities everywhere in Nigeria, directed security agencies “to fish out the masterminds of the dastardly acts to face the full wrath of the law.”
Recall that Tinubu had in June replaced all the Security Chiefs in the Country. The development was greeted with much expectations and demands placed on them. The Security Chiefs had repeatedly in various fora pledged and promised service to duty to fulfill the thrust of the mandate placed on them.
For instance, on Monday 03 July, following a meeting President Tinubu had with the Service Chiefs on the need for them to meet expectations placed on them, the National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu who spoke after the meeting which had in attendance the Chief of Defence Staff, Major General Christopher Musa, the Chief of Army Staff, Major General Taoreed Lagbaja, the Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Ogalla, the Chief of Air Staff, Air Vice Marshal Hassan Abubakar, and the Acting IGP, Kayode Egbetokun, had said: “We’re here to thank Mr President for the opportunity he gave us to serve our Country and to serve his own government. We also pledged our loyalty to him, Nigeria and Nigerians.
“We believe the choice he made is the right one, the correct one, and we know what he wants for this country. We’re going to work tirelessly to ensure that we accomplish that objective of securing our country, establishing peace, stability and let’s get our lives back. He gave us the assurance that he’s with us 100 percent. He told us that we must work as a team and that there’s work to be done, he’ll expect us to deliver and we’re grateful for the opportunity. That’s why we are here. Where we are today and you can see already things are improving in our Country. If you see the record of crimes and activities of criminals are going down, it will continue to go down. We’ll secure this place. Nigerians have seen the quality of the people that are given opportunity, they are probably some of the best we have and they are not going to fail you, they’ll certainly deliver.”
Similarly on Tuesday, the Chief of Army Staff, (COAS), Major General Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja had said that under his watch, the Nigerian Army will work towards emplacing a security atmosphere where citizens living in Kaduna, Niger State, Zamfara state and every other community can go to sleep and wake up around 2am in the morning and go about their businesses without fear of bandits, let or hindrance.
Major General Lagbaja made the pledge when he received the Governor of Kaduna state, Senator Uba Sani at the Army Headquarters Abuja, saying, “We will bring stability to Birnin Gwari, Dansadau and neighbouring communities where bandits may flee to, because we if we do that, we prevent them from spreading to other areas.”
The need to address Nigeria’s security woes cannot be overemphasied. The human, capital and economic losses recorded so far have left the Country with relics of erstwhile fortress of good estate. The social impacts have been debilitating. It was recorded Nigeria lost $40.6 billion alone to insecurity in 2020 as unknown gunmen, killer herdsmen, bandits, Boko Haram, and ISWAP terrorists combined to unleash violence in various parts of the country. According to the Institute for Economics & Peace’s ‘Global Peace Index 2021: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, Sydney, June 2021,’ the economic impact of violence on the global economy amounted to $14.96 trillion in constant purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This was equivalent to 11.6 per cent of global GDP or $1,942 per person.
In 2020, the economic impact of violence increased for the second year in a row, rising by 0.2 per cent or $32.5 billion from the previous year. Government spending on the military and internal security comprised almost three-quarters of the global economic impact of violence said the GPI. With Nigeria named one of the least peaceful countries globally, ranked 146 out of 163, the report put the economic impact of violence at $40.6 billion.
Last September 2021, a study by the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) revealed that protracted violence has affected eight per cent of Nigeria’s GDP, leading to a loss of about N50 trillion within 18 months. The ICIR reported that the N50 trillion is about three times bigger than the 2022 Budget that immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari signed into law on December 31, 2021. The budget provides for aggregate expenditures of N17.127 trillion, the highest in the nation’s history.
This means that the N50 trillion, which the IEP reported that Nigeria lost to insecurity within 18 months, from January 2021 to June 2022, could fund budgets for three years, going by the amount budgeted for 2022. The ‘Nigeria Security Analysis Report’ which is part of the IEP 2021-2022 report (January 2021 to June 2022) followed a research by Nextier SPD.
According to the report, the Nigerian government spent at least N8 trillion on security without achieving the desired results. “Nigeria lost about N50.38 trillion to growing violence in 2021. The Nigerian government has spent at least N8 trillion on security provisions without achieving the desired results,” the report had said.
In April 2022, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had said that Nigeria now has about 3.3 million people displaced by various crisies rocking the country. Speaking at the opening ceremony of the stakeholder workshop on the Best Practices for Stabilization in West Africa, the Vice President of the ECOWAS Commission, Madam Finda Koroma, had noted that “additionally, violent attacks by Boko Haram in the Northeastern in Nigeria, have resulted in the displacement of 2.5 million Nigerians, whilst kidnappings, extortion, and organised criminal attacks in the Northwest have displaced an additional 800,000 people. We need to find a way to return these communities to their homes, safely.”
Several recommendations have greeted the discourse to address the insecurity woes ravaging the Country. According to the UNDP “There is a need for international partners and national stakeholders to ensure that funds are invested not only on life-saving and humanitarian needs but also mid-and long-term development priorities in order to enable Nigeria to achieve the SDGs and attain the AU 2063.”
The plethora of recommendations nonetheless, it is pertinent that the new government must display, nurture, and sustain the will commensurate to fight the insecurity scourge headlong. This remains indisputable if it would record any meaningful achievement in all facets of governance. It is, therefore, important the government muster effort and deploy all required resources to complement the push needed to tackle the problem.
