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Editorial

Why fuel subsidy removal goals may fail

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Recently, the Federal Government disclosed that it will begin a gradual removal of the petrol subsidy from April 2023, about three months ahead of the initial plan to effect a complete stop. What has continued to ponder on the mind is that can this end the scarcity of fuel in the country?

The Minister of Finance Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed,  who dropped this hint on Tuesday during an interview with ARISE TV on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, also said the subsidy removal appears to be the position of all contestants to the leadership of the country in their political campaigns for next month’s general elections.

She stated, “What will be safer is for the current administration to start removing the fuel subsidy   at the beginning of the second quarter.  This according to  her is more expedient if you remove it gradually than to wait and move it all in one big swoop.” After 18-month extension, the Federal Government plans to spend N3.35 trillion on petrol subsidies from January till June 2023.

The extension, however, generated widespread debate on the expediency of such expenditure as it will increase the budget deficit of the FG which would be financed through additional borrowing and hence further rise in the nation’s public debt which stood at N44.06 trillion as at end of September 2022.

The history of fuel subsidies is traceable to the ’70s, they were first introduced in Nigeria in the 1970s as a response to the oil price shock in 1973. However, despite numerous attempts at reform, Nigeria has never successfully removed fuel subsidies, in large part due to strong popular opposition to reform. Such subsidies come at a great cost: spending on other development objectives is lower; the distribution of resources to the state governments is reduced; the vast majority of the subsidy goes to better off Nigerians; and cheaper gasoline encourages greater pollution, congestion, and climate change. Despite this, a survey conducted by the ICTD indicates that 70 per cent of Nigerians oppose the reduction or removal of subsidies.

In debating the merits of fuel subsidy removal, it is important to understand who benefits the most from the program. Contrary to popular belief, according to the World Bank, it is the rich, not the poor who disproportionally benefit from Nigeria’s fuel subsidy. With the government subsidising the market to keep domestic fuel prices artificially low, it is those who consume the most that have a greater benefit from the subsidy.

Nigeria’s poor rely primarily on public transportation as such their per capita fuel consumption is significantly less than the country’s rich, who generally use private vehicles. Neighbouring countries also benefit significantly from Nigeria’s fuel subsidy through smuggling. In addition, the World Bank, for instance, in the development update had said the poorest 40 per cent in Nigeria consume less than 3 pe cent  of the total PMS in the country, highlighting that the rich were benefitting more from the subsidies.

The Federal Government has displayed outright treachery by sticking wholesomely to the importation of petroleum products as if there alone lies the solution. For instance, in sticking only with products importation, the NNPC is already claiming that the source of its subsidy is because of a higher landing cost than that of the PPPRA. Under the current subsidy regime, the NNPC claimed  it is under-recovery and has left the pump price at a band between N162 and N165 per litre. If you compare that with the PPPRA landing cost of N264.65 per litre there exists subsidy or an under recovery of N102.65 per litre according to the officials.

In the report, PwC noted that Nigeria is the second largest producer of oil in Africa, producing over 1.5 million bpd (as of January 2017). With proven crude oil reserve estimates of about 37 billion barrels as at 2015, Nigeria boasts of about 29 per  cent of the continent’s crude reserves (2nd in Africa). Nigeria is also one of the largest consumers of refined products in Africa (5th as at 2014, behind Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco) and accounts for over 7 per cent of Africa’s refined products consumption.

It noted that in 2015, the consumption of refined products was estimated to be about 24 billion litres and products consumed include Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), Dual Purpose Kerosene (DPK) and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK). To the detriment of national earnings, these products are majorly imported from United States, North-Western Europe and other sources.

The PwC went ahead to clearly outline how local refining was the way to go for Nigeria, arguing that imports currently account for over 80 per cent of Nigeria’s refined product supply, creating a huge potential for local refining. The West African market also holds significant potential as refineries such as SIR (Ivory Coast), SOGARA (Gabon) and SAR (Senegal) cannot meet the current demand for refined products in the region, estimated at 39 billion litres. There is an opportunity for potential uptake by neighbouring countries if the market has Nigeria’s refined products readily available.

The Federal Government should deploy all machineries in resolving issues relating to criminals activities surrounding the  nation’s energy sector. Saboteurs should be brought to book and be punished appropriately than playing politics with the issue of fuel subsidy.

Eventually, the ordinary Nigerian does not have direct benefits whether the fuel subsidy is removed or not considering the masquerading chains of corruption surrounding the energy sector from the regulators, marketers and oil thiefs.

Editorial

Minimum wage Saga: FG, let the people go…

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For years, the narrative has been the same — the economy withers and the common man cries out for reprieve, only to be met with an endless array of impediments. When it is time to intercede for the poor, Nigerians are met with pointless bureaucracy and palliatives. Foreign aid is rendered ineffectual thanks to the gauze-hand of leaders, through which it all slips through into an oblivion of their own invention.

In April 2024, the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69 percent, up from 33.20 percent in March 2024, marking an increase of 0.49 percent points according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Yet, to raise the minimum wage to a level that will help beat back hunger in the poorest families has become a problem for the government.

Per the International Monetary Fund, IMF, a determined and well-sequenced implementation of government’s policy intentions would pave the way for faster, more inclusive, resilient growth in Nigeria. Without reforms — such as raising the minimum wage — to enhance the business environment, improve security, implement key governance measures, develop human capital, boost agricultural productivity, Nigeria’s growth potential will never leave the realm of imagination.

“These reforms are crucial to boost investor confidence, unlock Nigeria’s growth potential and diversify the economy, and address food insecurity, and underpin sustainable job creation,” IMF noted in its recent report, adding that over the last decade, limited reforms, security challenges, weak growth and now high inflation had worsened poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria.

“While Nigeria swiftly exited the COVID-19 recession, per-capita income has stagnated. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 2.9 percent in 2023, with weak agriculture and trade, and in spite of the improvement in oil production and financial services.

“Growth is projected at 3.3 per cent for 2024 as both oil and agriculture outputs are expected to improve with better security. The financial sector has remained stable, in spite of heightened risks. Food insecurity could worsen with further adverse shocks to agriculture or global food prices. Adverse shocks to oil production or prices would hit growth, the fiscal and external position, and exacerbate inflationary and exchange rate pressures,” the IMF said.

Yet, on Wednesday the pattern continued. Negotiations reached a deadlock due to the government’s perceived unwillingness to engage in fair discussions with Nigerian workers. The NLC National President, Joe Ajaero, in a sense is right to say that the government’s proposal of N48,000 as the new minimum wage is an insult to Nigerian workers.

It is no surprise that the labour unions are demanding a higher minimum wage to reflect the current economic realities and alleviate the suffering of Nigerian workers. The stalemate in negotiations may lead to industrial action, which could have far-reaching consequences for the economy.

Many labour in vain for decades for peanuts, only to be denied their pensions in old age. Of course, the Nigerian worker will down his tools in the face of great poverty, and seeming apathy from the government. The relationship between wage rate and employment is well established. Most revolutions throughout the world are dependent on the satiation of the labour force. The Federal Government should maintain an atmosphere of charity and responsibility. Like the Israelite Moses said millennial ago, let our people go.

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Editorial

Inflation as major threat to life security

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Millions of Nigerians are groaning because of the devastating inflationary pressure that is making it impossible for many to consume the minimum calories required for a healthy living.

It is known that Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment has become very harsh in its diminutive impact on the purchasing power at the disposal of the citizenry.

Many cannot also conveniently afford to transport themselves to their workplace or move around for routine activities.

Meanwhile, the price of other payment obligations for services such as house rents, school fees, utilities (including cable television), health and recreation services are rising on a daily basis.

This shows that the quality of life enjoyed by Nigerians is deteriorating as poverty becomes more pervasive and endemic.

According to official statistics, the November inflation rate was 14.89 percent and it is fast heading towards the 15 percent mark.

Meanwhile, the Rural inflationary pressure is also climbing as the rate climbed to 12.28 percent in July even when the price of Premium Motor Spirit and electricity tariff had not been hiked. Prices are just rising freely.

This applies to production inputs (except labour), consumer durable, agricultural products as well as services.

This unfortunately is the case irrespective of the basket of goods one uses as a measure outside the standard yardstick.

A close look at the policy framework of the government shows that the recent surge in general price level is not unconnected with structural bottlenecks, fiscal and monetary policies, deregulation, and trade policies as well as inefficiency on the part of regulatory agencies.

The government has for too long paid lip service towards unbundling of the shackles of growth and development such as poor budgetary implementation on capital projects, outdated laws and a toxic business environment that constrain the economy.

This has indeed, slowed down economic growth and resulted in shortage of goods and services and their attendant impact on inflation.

The government seems to be heating up the system by keeping its spending open-ended even as it cries of inadequacy of revenue to finance its expenditure obligations.

The disconnect between recurrent account, capital account and public debt operations is certainly having a destabilising effect on public finance operations of the country.

This has given rise to fiscal domination that describes the aggregative impact of the uncoordinated expenditure activities of all the governments in our strange three-tier federal arrangement.

It also appears that the Central Bank is losing sight of its inflation-targeting monetary policy which has been on its front burner for more than two decades now.

This is certainly not what the nation needs now when virtually all the macroeconomic variables are in disarray.

Here, attention of CBN must be called to its Naira management policy especially as it affects the regimented devaluation and depreciation which impact heavily on the domestic and external value of the currency.

The external value requires attention considering that the Nigerian economy carries a monolithic production base and import orientation.

The gross loss in the value of Naira is having a horrible impact on the life of Nigerians as misery and hopelessness characterise the daily songs of the lower income strata and whatever is left of the middle class.

It must be pointed out also that the government policy on agriculture in general and rice production appears to suffer a backlash.

Whereas local production has increased appreciably the farmers and agricultural marketers are engaging in exploitative pricing practice.

They simply jack up their prices arbitrarily. This is particularly the case with respect to rice where the price of the local varieties is at par with the foreign brands.

The recent increase in the price of premium motor spirit and electricity tariff have surely added more salt to the injury.

These two products are directly tied to production and distribution of goods and services and as such raising their individual prices simply translates to increasing the price of everything that is bought and sold in the open and underground economies.

Unfortunately, all these are happening when the nominal income of the average citizen has either stagnated or declined as the minimum wage has not been paid by many states of the federation.

The same is characterised by controversy in those states and some federal agencies that have implemented the new salary regime.

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Editorial

The need for increased investment in Energy sector

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The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) has taken a significant step towards achieving energy transition, efficiency, and reliability in the country with the unveiling of two strategic documents – the National Energy Plan (NEP) and National Energy Master Plan (NEMP).

These documents, which have been gazetted by the government, demonstrate the determination of President Bola Tinubu’s administration to diversify the energy sector and power Nigeria’s industries, driving economic development and attracting investments.

The ECN’s move is a welcome development, especially given the country’s chronic power supply challenges.

President Tinubu’s announcement on January 1, 2024, that improving power supply is a major priority, was a clear indication of the government’s commitment to addressing this critical issue.

The energy adviser, Olu Verheijen, has also outlined the government’s plans to revamp the energy sector, and these documents provide a clear roadmap for achieving this goal.

The NEP and NEMP are comprehensive documents that outline the country’s energy vision, goals, and strategies for achieving energy transition, efficiency, and reliability.

They provide a framework for the development of the energy sector, including the promotion of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The gazetting of these documents demonstrates the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability in the energy sector. It also provides a clear direction for stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and consumers, on the country’s energy priorities and goals.

The ECN’s strategic documents are a bold step towards achieving energy transition, efficiency, and reliability in Nigeria. They demonstrate the government’s commitment to diversifying the energy sector and powering the country’s industries, driving economic development and attracting investments.

We commend the ECN and the government for this initiative and look forward to seeing the positive impact it will have on the country’s energy landscape.

Nigeria, the giant of Africa, is stumbling in the dark, crippled by a lingering electricity shortage that threatens to suffocate its economy and stifle its growth.

The country’s generating capacity is anemic, and its dilapidated grid is a ticking time bomb, wasting precious energy and leaving millions in the lurch. The infamous “generator economy” moniker is a stark reminder of Nigeria’s reliance on noisy, polluting generators to power homes and businesses.

Lagos, the commercial hub, is an example of this energy poverty. With a population of 25 million, it receives a paltry 1,000 megawatts from the national grid, a fraction of what Shanghai, China’s commercial powerhouse, enjoys with a similar population.

The disparity is glaring, highlighting Nigeria’s backwardness in this critical sector.

The government’s recent policy attempts to tackle this challenge by urging electricity distribution companies to raise additional equity to address the $2.2 billion capital deficit. This move aims to improve services and increase liquidity in the power sector.

However, the plan to hike tariffs has sparked outrage, as Nigerians fear the added burden on their already strained finances.

As the government grapples with this complex issue, it must confront the harsh realities of its citizens’ lives. The power sector’s woes are not just an economic problem but a humanitarian crisis, affecting the daily lives of millions.

It’s time for a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of this energy poverty, invests in sustainable solutions, and prioritises the welfare of its people.

Nigeria’s power predicament is a call to action, a clarion cry for innovative solutions, and a reminder that the future of Africa’s largest economy hangs in the balance.

Will the government rise to the challenge, or will the country remain mired in darkness? The answer lies in the hands of its leaders and the resilience of its people.

Insufficient electricity generation in Nigeria necessitates a shift towards renewable energy sources, despite challenges in funding and infrastructure.

In pursuit of energy targets, the Minister of Innovation, Science, and Technology, Uche Nnaji, has announced the issuance of two significant bonds totaling $10.6 billion and $15 billion respectively. A third tranche, aiming for $50 billion, will focus on projects fostering the transition to low carbon and climate-resilient growth.

These efforts are commendable for bolstering investment initiatives outlined in Nigeria’s energy transition plan, offering opportunities for stakeholders across the value chain. Collaboration with stakeholders, as emphasised by Mustapha Abdullahi, Director General of the ECN, is essential to deepen investment in the sector and ensure energy security through diversification.

Meanwhile, inadequate infrastructure and limited access to electricity have held the nation back, while the world moves forward. It’s time for a comprehensive approach that prioritises diversification, efficiency, and availability to ensure reliable access for all.

Renewable energy is the key to unlocking a sustainable future, as the world invests in this direction. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas) highlights the potential for 30 million new jobs globally in the energy sector through investment in energy transition. Nigeria must tap into this opportunity to create jobs for its youth.

Energy efficiency and sustainability are crucial for a modern economy. A robust public-private partnership is essential to leverage cooperation, creativity, and technology to address energy difficulties and secure a sustainable future.

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