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Experts project rates hike as CBN holds MPC meeting

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As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) holds its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday, some stakeholders project a hike in policy rates.

This is against the backdrop of global monetary policy trend, which has seen the American Central Bank (The Fed), and the Bank of England increasing Monetary Policy Rates (MPR).

The MPR is the benchmark interest rate that guides all other rates in the financial market.

The MPC had raised the MPR by 100 basis points from 13 per cent to 14 per cent in its last meeting in July.

The July increase represented the second consecutive hike in the MPR within two months.

The committee had in May, and for the first time since September 2020, increased MPR by 150 basis points from 11.5 per cent to 13 per cent.

According to Prof. Umhe Uwaleke, an economist, the MPC is likely to increase the MPR again by at least 50 basis points.

Uwaleke, a Professor of Economics from Nasarawa State University, said that his projection was informed by rising inflation rates as well as the trend in the some developed countries.

“Judging from the recent shift in monetary policy stance from accommodative to contractionary in deference to the CBN’s primary mandate of price stability.

“And against the backdrop of rising inflation, the MPC is most likely to increase the MPR by at least 50 basis points.

“Aside inflationary pressure and the need to tame it, the MPC will be considering current global monetary developments such as the hike in policy rates by central banks in developed countries.

“For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve recently increased the benchmark rate by 75 basis points while the Bank of England increased by 50 basis points,” he said.

Uwaleke said that these monetary tightening by central banks of U.S. and the UK continued to trigger capital outflows from Nigeria with negative implications on the exchange rate.

“So, the MPC will equally consider this as justification for increasing MPR,” he said.

The economist, however, urged the MPC to hold the prevailing rates constant as tightening may not tame inflationary trend.

“Be that as it may, if I were a member of the MPC, I would vote for a hold position. In other words, I would advise that the policy rates be held.

“This is because the major drivers of inflation in Nigeria today are cost-push related rather than demand-pull.

“Further policy tightening may not really tame inflationary pressures that are stemming more from high cost of energy and negative impact of insecurity on food output.

“Furthermore, any hike in rate at this time will hurt output growth through higher cost of lending to SMEs.

“In view of the current tepid real GDP growth, I will advise the MPC to maintain the status quo and give more time to the current CBN monetary policy to permeate the economy,” he said.

Dr Tope Fasua, an economist, also urged the MPC to retain the subsisting rates as past rates increase had not tamed inflation.

“Though I expect that they may further raise rates, my advice to the MPC will be that they hold rates.

“We have raised rates by 250 basis points in the last two meetings but inflation has surged further.

“This means that our own inflation is not tightly linked with interest rates and may recede in its own time.

“Ours is a bit of a carryover from the COVID-19 era of production shut down and imported inflation because our economy is dependent on foreign ones battling inflation presently,”’ he said.

“Further policy tightening may not really tame inflationary pressures that are stemming more from high cost of energy and negative impact of insecurity on food output.

“Furthermore, any hike in rate at this time will hurt output growth through higher cost of lending to SMEs.

“In view of the current tepid real GDP growth, I will advise the MPC to maintain the status quo and give more time to the current CBN monetary policy to permeate the economy,” he said.

Dr Tope Fasua, an economist, also urged the MPC to retain the subsisting rates as past rates increase had not tamed inflation.

“Though I expect that they may further raise rates, my advice to the MPC will be that they hold rates.

“We have raised rates by 250 basis points in the last two meetings but inflation has surged further.

“This means that our own inflation is not tightly linked with interest rates and may recede in its own time.

“Ours is a bit of a carryover from the COVID-19 era of production shut down and imported inflation because our economy is dependent on foreign ones battling inflation presently,” he said.

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Banks’ ATMs dispensing cash, withdrawal limit for non-customers slashed

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Most banks’ Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) are dispensing cash for customers to withdraw, contrary to reports that most banks no longer load cash in their machines.

A correspondent, who monitored banks in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), on Sunday, reports that some customers were seen withdrawing cash.

The study also revealed that most customers using ATM of their banks were permitted to withdraw higher amounts than customers not using their banks’ ATM.

At Zenith Bank in Garki, customers with Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB) ATM cards or other banks’ were only allowed to withdraw N10,000 and below, while those with the Zenith Bank’s ATM cards were allowed N20,000 withdrawal and above.

Also, at First Bank, Nyanya-Jikwoyi road, customers with other bank’s ATM card were allowed to withdraw N10,000 and below, while customers with the bank’s ATM card could withdraw up to N20,000.

Mr Tam Ubose, a customer at Area 3 branch of GTB, said the withdrawal limit slash was not a new development as banks had been doing it.

“This is not new; it has been going on for some months now, especially during the cashless policy season.

“Banks give preferential treatment to their customers.

“The best thing anyone looking for much  cash should do is to use his or her bank’s Atm card or patronise Point of Sale (PoS) operators,” he said.

Mrs Ijeoma Ukwu, another customer at First Bank, Nyanya-Jikwoyi, said that although it had been rumoured that most banks’ ATMs do not dispense cash, she was yet to experience it.

Ukwu alleged that most bank customers now preferred to patronise PoS operators instead of going to use banks’ ATM due to the convenience.

Mr Ade Bello, a PoS operator, said he had many bank accounts and ATM cards which he used to withdraw money.

“Some banks will give you N20,000 while some can only give you N10,000.

“I use almost all my ATM cards when I want to withdraw money for my business and I usually go in the morning when monies are being loaded in the machines.

“It was during that cashless policy thing that we did not see money in ATMs. At that period, I was buying money to save my business, but now, the situation is much better,” he said.

On alleged insinuations that most bankers own PoS, hence the limited loading of cash in banks’ ATMs, Bello said the rumour had filtered into his ears.

Bello, who said the rumours had yet to be confirmed, said he was in the business to cater for the needs of his family.

However, Mrs Susan Obong, a customer at United Bank for Africa (UBA) in Kubwa, alleged that most banks ATMs in the area do not dispense cash, especially during the weekend.

Obong appealed to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to investigate the allegation with a view to finding punitive measures for the banks involved.

Reacting to the developments, a banker who pleaded anonymity, said that banks were constantly loading their machines with cash.

“There is no way a bank will see that there is no cash in their ATM machine and they will not quickly load it.

“Loading cash in ATM reduces the number of customers who enter the banking hall and the stress faced by bankers.

“In our bank, we have a stand-by official who will always go and load the ATM with cash.

“We are out to satisfy our customers,” the official said.

Another bank official who also pleaded anonymity, dismissed the allegation that most bankers own PoS business.

“Even though I do not believe this rumor, I do not think it is wrong for someone to own a business as long as you are not going about it the wrong way,” the official said.

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Strong credit score will enhance higher funding for MSMEs – Expert

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A financial expert, Mr Gbemi Adelekan, has advised Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to ensure a solid repayment history to  enhance their credit scores and improve their access to funding.

Adelekan, also the Chief Executive Officer of KwikPay Credit, gave the advice on Saturday in Lagos in an interview with journalists.

KwikPay Credit is a financial services provider and licensed lender by Trafalgar Associates, approved by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC).

Adelekan said that, in Nigeria, accessing credit facilities was crucial for individuals and enterprises to meet various financial needs and increase circulation of disposable income and engender business sustainability.

He emphasised that a strong repayment history would enhance access to higher levels of funding that would enable expansion of small businesses into larger enterprises and increase their performances.

“A short-term loan with a solid repayment history can significantly enhance your credit score in a short period.

“This improvement in your creditworthiness opens up greater opportunities to secure larger loan amounts in future applications,” he said.

Adelekan said that short and quick loans had helped many small businesses to navigate  murky economic terrains, particularly those operating under the informal bracket.

“An ice block maker, that hair dresser on the street, the welder whose machine needs to work, and other artisans may be unable to go to big banks or development finance institutions to ask for small loans.

“They may not have the requisite paperwork. Accessing small and quick loans online has saved many of these businesses from collapse.

“Fortunately, the money lending sector is fully regulated by the FCCPC, and the rights of borrowers are very much protected,” he said.

He said that non-repayment of loans had adverse effects.

“Owing money for a long time and watching the interest accrue on such a facility can have a psychological effect,” he said.

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GTCO Plc releases 2024 Q1 unaudited results

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…Reports Profit Before Tax of N509.3billion

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO or the Group) has released its Unaudited Consolidated and Separate Financial Statements for the period ended March 31, 2024, to the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) and London Stock Exchange (LSE).

The Group reported profit before tax of N509.3billion, representing an increase of 587.5 percent over N74.1billion recorded in the corresponding period ended March 2023. The Group’s loan book (net) increased by 21.9 percent from N2.48trillion recorded as at December 2023 to N3.02trillion in March 2024, while deposit liabilities increased by 26.0 percent from N7.55trillion in December 2023 to N9.51trillion in March 2024

The Group’s balance sheet remained well structured, diversified, and resilient with total assets and shareholders’ funds closing at N13.0 trillion and N2.0trillion, respectively. Full Impact Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) remained very strong, closing at 24.9 percent, while asset quality was sustained as IFRS 9 stage 3 loans improved to 3.1 percent in March 2024 from 4.2 percent December 2023 and cost of risk (COR) closed at 0.4 percent from 4.5 percent in December 2023.

Commenting on the results, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, Mr. Segun Agbaje, said, “Our first quarter results reflect the unfolding value of what we have created in all our business verticals through the Holding Company Structure – from Banking and Payments to Funds Management and Pension, we are positioned to compete effectively on all fronts and fulfil all our customers’ needs under a unified, thriving financial ecosystem. Despite the challenging operating environment, we delivered a solid performance, recording significant growth across all financial and non-financial metrics, and we remain on track to meeting our full year guidance.

Mr. Agbaje further said, “Looking ahead, we will continue to focus on strengthening our relationships with our loyal customers, supporting not just individuals and businesses but also our communities through our well-attested free business platforms as well as innovative products and services.

“We are confident in our credentials to lead the future of financial services in Africa and will not relent in our commitment to excellence whilst delivering long-term value to all stakeholders.”

Overall, the Group continues to post one of the best metrics in the Nigerian financial services industry in terms of key financial ratios i.e., pre-tax return on equity (ROAE) of 117.0 percent, pre-tax return on assets (ROAA) of 18.0 percent, full impact capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 24.9 percent and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 16.3 percent.

GTCO is a leading financial services group with banking operations in Nigeria, West Africa, East Africa, and the United Kingdom alongside non-banking verticals in HabariPay, Guaranty Trust Fund Managers, and Guaranty Trust Pension Managers. Its leadership in the banking industry and efforts at empowering people and communities has earned it many prestigious awards over the years. Recently, Guaranty Trust Bank was recognised as Nigeria’s Best Bank and Best Bank in CSR at the 2023 Euromoney Awards for Excellence, Best Banking Group in Nigeria by World Finance, and Best Bank in Nigeria by Global Finance. GTCO’s Guaranty Trust Bank is featured in the Top 1000 Banks in the World and Top 100 Banks in Africa rankings by The Banker.

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