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Nigeria’s inflation rate to rise to 22.2% year-on-year — Coronation Merchant Bank

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Coronation Merchant Bank has forecast a year-on-year increase in Nigeria’s inflation rate to 22.2% ahead of the release of the National Bureau of Statistics’ August inflation report.

Ms Chinwe Egwim, the bank’s chief economist, stated this on Wednesday during a panel discussion at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria’s (CIBN) 15th Annual Banking and Finance Conference in Abuja.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), stated that  Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 19.64% on a year-on-year basis in July. This means that in the month of July 2022 the general price level was 2.26% higher than in July 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in July 2022 was 1.817%, which was 0.001% higher than the rate recorded in June 2022 (1.816 %).

Egwim said, “Now, from our vantage point at Coronation, looking ahead in Nigeria, we expect further upticks in headline inflation. Our end-year forecast has inflation hitting 22.2 per cent on a year-on-year.

“This projection took into consideration modest increases in the month-on-month inflation. Our forecast is also influenced by structural issues impacting the cost of doing business such as insecurity and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the economy.”

She also stated that the naira will see a surge in circulation at the end of the year, as this would be the peak of electioneering for the 2023 elections.

According to her, this is likely to cause some level of demand-pull inflation, as opposed to the existing cost-push inflation.

“Based on our model, headline inflation should moderate to about 17.28 per cent in 2023 and then it should maintain a downward trajectory to 11.35 per cent by 2025.

“We assume that the ongoing crisis would cease or that a workable solution to supply-side shocks and severe cost push inflation would be implemented, in addition to other assumptions,” she said.

On economic diversification, which includes non-oil exports, Egwim stated that if Nigeria’s non-oil export potential was maximized, a 2% increase in non-oil GDP could be achieved on a quarterly basis.

According to her, the 2% prediction excludes any major contractions in oil GDP or assuming that GDP maintains at its current level, as well as assuming that oil prices remain at or exceed 70 dollars per barrel.

She said, “Overall GDP can hit double-digit if we see a two per cent growth on a Q-on-Q basis and if we impose that across quarters, dragging all the way to 2025. We can see it hit as high as 11.25 per cent and a doubling essential if we are going to achieve inclusive growth, which is important to tackle the poverty levels that we are currently seeing.

“To support this diversification towards non-oil, banks can contribute in many ways, like accelerating the drive around sensitisation programmes, fairs and campaigns. This will help micro small and medium-sized businesses equip themselves with tools to enhance their eligibility with regards to gaining access to finance or gaining access to business expansion support.”

According to Egwim, it is crucial to maximize Nigeria’s non-oil export potential in light of the most recent foreign trade statistics made public by the NBS.

She claimed that in the first half of 2022, non-oil exports made up barely 26% of all exports.

She cited obstacles, a lack of infrastructure, and the caliber of present export goods as concerns affecting non-oil export growth.

Other problems, according to Egwim, involved production value chains and the value addition of certain export goods, particularly in the agriculture industry.

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Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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