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Osun guber: YIAGA’s revelations vindicate my position

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Ismail Omipidan

Let me state from the outset that this is not a media trial of the case before the Osun Election Petitions  Tribunal. Far from it. This is just an attempt to ‘synchronise’ what I said recently with respect to the outcome of the July 16 election with the revelations from The Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth and Advancement, YIAGA.

YIAGA Africa is a civil society organisation, a major stakeholder in our electoral process. Like most Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), they were also in Osun to observe and monitor the election.

I said recently that my Principal, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, did not lose the election but only lost the vote count. But a lot of people were wondering what point I was trying to make.

However, last Thursday’s revelations by YIAGA, where it submitted among other things, as reproduced below, is a vindication of my position:

“An analysis of the number of registered voters and the PVC collected by polling units revealed some inconsistencies in the data. Findings from the analysis on the Osun PVC collection data revealed that the total number of PVCs collected for 30 polling units was greater than the total number of registered voters in those polling units. These inconsistencies were recorded in 12 LGAs.”

Last Thursday, YIAGA Africa held a stakeholders’ conference where it launched the election result analysis dashboard (ERAD) report agenda.

It was at the event that the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, revealed the alleged attempts by some hackers to hack into the INEC’s results viewing portal.

At the same event, YIAGA seized the opportunity to present to the gathering its  findings on e-transmission of election results on the electronic transmission of results in the 2022 Osun and Ekiti governorship elections. But because I am discussing Osun here, I will only focus on Osun.

The Executive Director of YIAGA, Samson Itodo, according to reports from the event, noted that its organisation curated an Election Results Analysis Dashboard (ERAD) as an independent audit and integrity test assessment tool for the results management of INEC.

Mr. Itodo revealed that some ‘issues’ in the Osun election affected the processing of results on the ERAD platform which, he noted,  was targeted at providing credible information.

In the Osun election, he continued,  87 results were not processed on the ERAD, due to some issues.

“Based on ERAD findings, INEC presiding officers uploaded forms or documents other than Form EC8A as prescribed in the guidelines and manual for the election,” he added.

The YIAGA Executive Director further revealed that in Osun “blurry images and poorly captured photographs of result sheets were uploaded on the IReV portal,” adding that “it was impracticable to decipher the number of votes scored by political parties on the uploaded forms. In some cases, the presiding officers uploaded truncated images of result sheets. In other words, the images omitted segments of the result sheets.”

Hear him further, “From the result sheets downloaded on the IReV, important delimitation data such as number of registered voters and accredited voters for polling units was either omitted or wrongly inputted on the Form EC8A.

“Contrary to the provisions of the electoral act 2022 and INEC guidelines and regulations, some polling unit level results (Form EC8A) uploaded on the IReV were not stamped or signed by the presiding officer.

“Based on results entered on the ERAD database, there was a variation in the total number of rejected ballots, and the figures announced by INEC at the final collation.”

YIAGA boss went further to submit that the ERAD’s findings exposed inconsistencies in the data on the Permanent Voter Card (PVC) collection, insisting that it was noticed across 12 Local Government Areas in Osun.

“An analysis of the number of registered voters and the PVC collected by polling units revealed some inconsistencies in the data. Findings from the analysis on the Osun PVC collection data revealed that the total number of PVCs collected for 30 polling units was greater than the total number of registered voters in those polling units. These inconsistencies were recorded in 12 LGAs,” he said.

As a political  reporter who has covered elections in our clime, I was surprised that the revelations from YIAGA were not critically analysed by the stakeholders at the event. Or maybe it was but it did not get media attention. Regardless, as someone who had attended INEC’s Chairman engagements with the media in the past, such revelations would not pass without the INEC boss making a comment even if it is in passing.

But if indeed, he did, I am yet to read it anywhere as at this morning when I penned down my thoughts on the event. Our case before the Tribunal is simple.

Sections 47(2) of the Electoral Act says that to vote, the presiding officer shall use the smart card reader or any other technological device that may be prescribed by the commission for the accreditation of voters to “verify, authenticate the intending voter in the manner prescribed by the commission.”

For the purpose of Osun election, INEC had prescribed the BVAS (Bimodal Voters Accreditation System) as the only credible means of accreditation. But from the report we got from the field, in many of the polling units, BVAS was not used appropriately. It didn’t capture the number of accredited voters. But we did not rely mainly on the report we got from our poling agents. We also demanded by law for a CTC of the report of BVAS from INEC, and we got it.

The CTC of the report of BVAS across 10 Local Governments in 749 polling units showed that accreditation through BVAS was less than the number of votes cast in those units.

By implication, there were more voters than accredited by the BVAS. Let me give a few examples to drive home my point.

In Ede-North ward 5, Alusekere Unit 004, Owode Primary School, where the Governor-elect comes from, the total votes cast for that unit was 1,267 but BVAS recorded only 858 as accredited voters.

Again, in Ward 5 unit 14, 206 number of votes were recorded for parties against 118 accredited through BVAS. In Unit 15 of the same ward 5 Alusekere, 177 votes were recorded in Form EC8A while the BVAS report says 108 voters were accredited. So, consistently, there were more voters than BVAS accredited, and those are our issues with the Election Results as declared by INEC.

Make no mistake, our case is not in any way an attempt to impugn on the integrity of INEC. Far from it. It is to further help deepen our electoral system and to help INEC correct whatever anomalies arising from the Osun Governorship Election ahead of 2023 elections. Most of the reforms we have today were borne out of the decisions of the court. Our observations may as well be part of them.

I rest my case for now.

Omipidan is a former Assistant Editor (Politics) with The Sun

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Opinion

Are youths the panacea for Nigeria’s problems?

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By Temitope Tbog Omoakhalen

In 2021, after the COVID-19 pandemic, my husband and I engaged in a pet project that required us conducting candid interviews with people on the streets to gain insight into their perceptions of Nigeria, their expectations of government and their sense of ownership of a Nigerian dream. It was an interesting season of my life that afforded me the opportunity to just hear first-hand what everyday Lagosians were thinking. There was an encounter with a young lady, however, that left an indelible mark on my consciousness. She said to me, “TBOG, at the tender age of six, I was called ‘the leader of tomorrow’. I just turned forty, yet, the promise of tomorrow still eludes me. When will my tomorrow come?” Her words touched me deeply because it echoed a sentiment shared by many who have long been called, THE LEADERS OF TOMORROW. “When will our collective tomorrow materialise, and what form will it assume?” many youths ask.

For a long time, the youth have been told to wait for their turn to lead the nation. As the years have passed and the vista of tomorrow appears distant, one cannot help but question the accuracy of the ‘waiting period.’ Will the youth ever have their turn at power, or will it have to be forcefully grabbed? Are youths even ready to handle the reins of power or are we just too inexperienced to know what to do with it? Would Nigeria progress as a nation if it had an infusion of youthful energy to invigorate governance structures or would our much-touted inexperience cause us to falter under pressure, make costly mistakes, or succumb to the allure of power without proper accountability? If they had the opportunity, would the current crop of youths be any different from the older generation of leaders they fiercely condemn or would they become the breath of fresh air Nigeria needs? While these are burning questions on the minds of many, I am compelled to take Lagos, once again, as my model.

Lagos State boasts of the most vibrant and dynamic population of young people in the country. Many of Nigeria’s young leaders and change-makers have their roots in Lagos, the likes of Iyinoluwa Aboyeji, Olugbenga Agboola, Folarin Falana (Falz), Debo Adedayo (Mr. Macaroni), Tunde Onakoya, Hilda Baci, Debola William, Chude Jideonwo, Yemi Adamolekun among others who are all thriving in their various spheres of influence, from technology to arts and entertainment to media to civil society, placing Nigeria in global conversations. This suggests that the youth have the potential to make a difference if given the opportunity in the political arena. Thankfully, the current Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani, is a young Nigerian whose inspiring story is traceable to the Centre of Excellence. Moreover, did you know that in Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s cabinet, there are young people in their thirties holding key positions? Some of his Senior Special Assistants were in their twenties when he took office and they have since grown to head agencies within the state, contributing their quota to the decision-making process. For these ones, their tomorrow has come; they have become the leaders of today.

Mr. Governor recognises the untapped potential of youth and is committed to investing in this potential. No wonder the Lagos model is a departure from the longstanding tradition of political leadership dominated by the older generation. The Lagos model is a definite paradigm shift in governance dynamics. This should not be very surprising given that Lagos is a forward-thinking state driven by the THEMES+ agenda. Besides, Lagos has historically provided an enabling environment for young people to thrive across various sectors even as the political environment has been characterised by intergenerational integration and continuity of vision. This is a commendable model that other states must consider adopting. While there are indicators of increased youth participation in several states across the nation, to accurately measure inclusion, a Youth Participation Index that evaluates the gains of the Not-Too-Young-To-Run Act and the involvement of youth in appointive positions would be a valuable additional contribution from civil society groups. While I believe that Lagos State would top such an index, I recognise that there is still much room for progress in the inclusion of young people in public leadership across the nation.

Among public officials, there are two schools of thought on youth involvement in public leadership. On the one hand, there is the belief that incorporating youth in politics and governance would trigger a positive disruption through the introduction of innovative ideas, digital savvy, and a deeper connection with contemporary issues facing the populace. This school of thought holds that the idealism of youth as well as our passion for change offers a promising antidote to stagnant bureaucracies and the entrenched systems that currently impede transformative outputs. This school of thought further holds the opinion that since many among the present-day older generation of leaders began their leadership journeys as youths, it would be only just for them to yield the floor to the present-day younger generation. On the other hand, there are those who hold sacred the age-old wisdom of experience. The holders of this opinion argue that governance is a complex matter requiring the nuanced understanding and institutional knowledge that can only be found among seasoned politicians and administrators. They believe that youthful idealism could become a pitfall without practical wisdom gained through years of service and leadership.

My thoughts regarding these two positions are very simple. Leadership is a skill that must be forged in the crucible. I do not think that the youths, in themselves, are the panacea to Nigeria’s problems. I do not think power should be given to anyone simply because they are of a particular age bracket. I think the making of the Nigeria of our dreams is the collective responsibility of the old and the young because we need the wisdom of the old and the energy of the youth to make this nation work. But this is also not an endorsement of the status quo. If we had to choose between the ebullience and innovation of the youth on the one hand and the conventionality and steadfastness of the old on the other, I would likely go for the former. But what Nigeria needs, beyond creativity and passion, is patriotism and people of character; people who love their nation and can defend her, come what may. These kinds of people are first forged in the home before they are released to the nation. If parents do not rise to take charge of the value and moral components of their children’s growth and development, a pipeline of value-driven youthful leaders would be a pipe dream.

As a youth, I may be castigated for even considering that the older generation should still have a say at the table, but life has shown me that there are unpatriotic and corrupt youths as much as there are nationalistic and reliable older leaders. As a Fellow of The Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy, I have seen and worked with political leaders and bureaucrats who possess professionalism and integrity – value systems that I hardly thought that I would encounter in the public sector and that I never believed even existed among politicians. Among the old as well as the young, I have seen the propensity for the good as well as the inclination to the not-so-desirable. This has compelled a rethink of the notion of age as the sole determinant of leadership emergence in our nation. While it is my utmost delight to see more young people emerge as leaders in Nigeria, I am concerned that if the production process is not thoroughly curated to produce a generation of leaders who are passionate and patriotic and possess the character and competence required for governance, we would replicate the corruption that currently eats at the soul of our nation, except that this time, it would be with an exuberance that could bring our nation to its knees.

This was why, when the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy (LJLA) convened its first-ever Lagos Leadership Summit (LLS) held on April 17, 2024, tagged, Leadership and Nigeria’s Future, expectation surged in my heart that the event would kickstart fresh conversations around the integration of a new generation of trained and tested leaders. I was not disappointed. As the Honorable Commissioner for Innovation, Science & Technology, Olatubosun Alake, pointed out at the event, there are older leaders devoid of patriotism, just as there are callous youths hungry for power. The goal, in my opinion, is an integrated approach where the wisdom of age converges with the dynamism of youth. Mentorship programs, intergenerational dialogues, knowledge exchange opportunities and leadership training initiatives, all of which the LJLA and LLS embody, can bridge this gap. By harnessing the complementary strengths of diverse generations, Lagos is already cultivating a leadership ecosystem that is resilient, adaptable, and responsive to the needs of its diverse populace. No wonder we boldly say: This is Lagos, the Centre of Excellence, the Nigerian model for city transformation and the reference point for all other states.

Temitope is a Fellow, Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy.

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Naira’s slump: Urgent action needed to restore stability

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By Kenechukwu Aguolu

The recent rebound of the Naira brought a glimmer of hope to Nigerians amidst the backdrop of economic uncertainty. However, skepticism soon emerged as many questioned the underlying factors driving this increase in value. Concerns arose that the Naira’s rise may have been artificially influenced, either through defending the currency with foreign loans or tapping into the country’s foreign reserves. In response to these speculations, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Governor vehemently denied any such manipulation, asserting that the Naira’s upward trajectory was a result of the government’s strategic policies aimed at stabilising the currency.

However, in the past few days, the Naira has experienced a decline in value, prompting widespread unease, and clarity regarding the exact causes of its depreciation remains elusive. Various theories have emerged, ranging from the impact of speculative activities in crypto-currency platforms to the Central Bank’s cautious stance amid dwindling foreign reserves. The lack of definitive explanations only serves to exacerbate the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the Naira’s future path, leaving citizens and investors alike on edge.

Despite recent attempts by the Vice President to reassure the public regarding the Naira’s resilience, the potential consequences of a sustained decline cannot be overstated. A loss of faith in the government’s ability to manage the economy could further destabilise an already precarious situation. Moreover, a weakening Naira threatens to reignite a frenzy for foreign currencies, jeopardising financial stability and will also deter much-needed foreign direct investment, thus hindering economic growth. The looming specter of a return to the pre-rebound era of financial instability looms ominously, underscoring the urgent need for decisive action.

Given these pressing challenges, the government must demonstrate swift and resolute leadership to address the root causes of the Naira’s decline and restore confidence in the currency. A comprehensive diagnosis is paramount to identify the underlying factors contributing to the Naira’s weakness. Only by understanding the root causes can effective solutions be devised and implemented to shore up the currency’s value and stabilise the economy.

Furthermore, the government must redouble its efforts to diversify the economy away from its heavy reliance on oil revenues. While this remains a long-term strategy, accelerating the implementation of diversification policies is crucial to reducing Nigeria’s vulnerability to the shockwaves caused by oil price fluctuations. By promoting other income sources such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, Nigeria can mitigate the adverse effects of volatile oil prices on its economy and currency.

In conclusion, immediate and decisive action is imperative to prevent the Naira’s decline from spiraling into a full-blown crisis. The government must act swiftly to address the root causes of currency instability, restore trust in the Naira, and pave the way for sustained economic growth and prosperity. The time for action is now, and the stakes could not be higher for the future of Nigeria’s economy.

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Opinion

Adeleke v Aregbesola: The price of political treachery

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By Dr Jimoh Olorede

Preparatory to the July 2022 governorship election in Osun State, and since thereafter, until recently, the ex-governor and immediate-past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola, a top beneficiary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) party, as a two-term commissioner in Lagos, two-term governor in Osun, and minister consecutively, suddenly became an abettor and a conspiratorial ally to an opposition gubernatorial candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, against his party, APC, and his successor, Adegboyega Oyetola, who served as his Chief of Staff, succeeded him as governor, and was seeking a reelection! The gubernatorial election was held, Adeleke won, Oyetola lost, but subsequently appointed as minister, while Aregbesola left the political stage as minister and got back home!

Oyetola’s open and obvious sin for which he must be crucified, and was actually dealt with, at least, in the myopic estimation of Aregbesola and his co-conspirators, was ‘reviewing and reversing his Schools Reclassification Policy’, by which Oyetola actually rekindled people’s hope, and what they perceived as a retrieval of their ‘lost glory and education origin’, with his return and reversal of the changed public schools’ founder-cum-original names and unique uniforms to the status quo. This happens when a government is consent of the governed.

His (Oyetola’s) hidden, how-do-we-say-it sin for which he must be punished was what Ogbeni would term ‘deployment of his magic wand’ with which he was able to pay full salaries of the state workers, which Aregbesola could not, or perhaps did not, given the inherited jugular-strangling and throat-squeezing debt into which he plunged the state. These were Oyetola’s obvious and hidden sins for which the ‘political structure and APC house’ built in Osun by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, through Aregbesola and others, must be demolished and totally rent asunder.

Since the creation of Osun State, ten people have served as governor, with four military governors and six civilian governors. While the first (military) governor, Leo Segun Ajiborisha, served the shortest term of four months, from 27 August 1991 to 3 January, 1992, Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola so far, served the longest term of eight years as governor, from November 27, 2010 to November 27, 2018. However, within this period of eight years of the longest-serving governor, so many things had happened in and to the state. One of those things was the changing and renaming of the state from Osun State to “State of Osun”. The ex-governor must have seen an error which none of his seven predecessors who had ruled the state before him could see.

He also created and introduced a different state Anthem, Logo, Crest and Flag. Apart from the humongous loan repayment, Oyetola also inherited these “Aregbesola-personified legacies” about which he had to be silent, as it was a moral burden, and rather maintained and sustained the status quo throughout his administration, feigning pretense as if he didn’t see anything wrong just to avoid crisis or rift with Aregbe.

Alas, Governor Ademola Adeleke eventually betrayed his ‘mission-fellow’, an abettor and co-conspirator, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who maliciously joined forces with him against his own party and successor. He has obliterated all Ogbeni’s known legacies in the state. No sooner had the governor taken the oath of office than he started repealing Aregbesola’s legacies right at the venue of his inauguration. While delivering his inaugural speech, governor Ademola Adeleke publicly said: “Consequently, I hereby issue the following directives which will be backed up with appropriate Executive Orders.

“. . . Three, and immediate reversal to the constitutionally recognized name of our state – Osun State. All government insignia, correspondences, and signage should henceforth, I repeat, should henceforth reflect ‘Osun State, rather than ‘State of Osun’, which is unknown to the Nigerian Constitution.”

Nigerian politics is a treacherous game. There’s no permanent friend or enemy in politics, as politicians deceitfully use and dump each other. Adeleke knew Aregbesola was smart; he consequently cynically stooped to outwit his smartness, and Ogbeni unwittingly misconstrued his betraying kindergarten dancing posture for stupidity.

Also, while Oyetola maintained and sustained the legacy, and retained the nomenclature “OYES” (Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme) as birthed and christened by Aregbesola, governor Ademola Adeleke dissolved the OYES Corps to be renamed after his ‘Imole Youth’. The governor, through his spokesperson, condemned what he referred to as ‘content of the programme’ which, according to him, turned people to grass-cutters and market sweepers. Similarly, on many occasions, I have heard Adeleke-led PDP condemn Aregbesola’s government in the media, bemoaning that he failed to complete any road in eight years, and so on.

Eventually, the scenario turned out to be Adeleke paying Aregbe in his own coins! Based on malice and ill-will, and for his immediate ego satisfaction, Aregbesola sacrificed his party’s future gains, jeopardizing the fortune of many, thinking he was ‘dealing’ with, and whipping Oyetola with political lashes. Paradoxically, as Ogbeni whips, Oyetola laughs while many, including Ogbeni himself, weep as direct recipients of the whipping! As a Yoruba adage says “Papa npara e, o lo np’aja” meaning a tick, like a sheep-ked, is unwittingly ruining itself thinking is undoing its host-dog by sucking its blood.

In June 2023, Ogbeni Aregbesola while speaking at the palace of Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji Larooye II, after he had returned to Osun State consequent upon the expiration of his term as minister, said “I was born in Ikare Akoko. It’s surprising that a boy born in Ikare Akoko became a commissioner in Lagos and governor in Osun. That’s the work of God. He used Asiwaju to lead me to the path of success. I thank God who brought me to Lagos through the assistance of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. He is the architect of my success.” He added that Tinubu directed him to come and take over “my fatherland – Osun State, that it was my next place of assignment.” Can you imagine, Aregbesola saying this after the deed (a grave damage) had been done! This is exactly how traitors behave – joining forces with conspirators to betray their benefactors.

Dr. Olorede, a strategic communication analyst, writes via [email protected]/08111841887

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