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2023: FG proposes N19.76trn budget of N12.41trn deficit

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…Projects N6.34trn revenue

…Targets N373.17bn  oil revenue, N5.97trn from non-oil sector

…treasury funded capital projects may suffer — Finance Minister

…As crude oil production challenges, PMS subsidy deductions threaten revenue growth targets

…Reps go tough on revenue generating Agencies

By Moses Adeniyi

Nigeria’s debt would further heap up as the Federal Government is working towards a proposed budget estimate of N19.76trillion with a deficit hovering between N11.30trn and N12.41trn – Nigerian NewsDirect has learnt.

The projected deficits between N11.30trn and N12.41trn in 2023, is up from N7.35trn in 2022. The figure represents 5.01 per cent of the estimated GDP (Gross Domestic Products), above the 3 per cent threshold stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007.

Borrowings to fund budget deficits have been decried largely in view of rising debt profile and the burden of debt servicing recenfly.

Nigeria’s debt profile has been projected to hit N45trn by end of 2022, as Debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 23.27 per cent.

Although stakeholders have lamented that the larger chunk of revenue now goes for debt servicing, the Federal Government has held on the argument that the Country’s Debt to GDP ratio is still within sustainable limits.

This is just as stakeholders have observed a gloomy projection for budgetary performance in 2023 owing to crude oil production challenges, particularly with struggles to meet up with the 1.8million barrel per day oil output quota approved for the Country by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

Acts of pipeline vandalism and oil theft have posed strains to oil production as the Country struggles to maintain 1.4million barrel per day output, a development which stakeholders believe, alongside Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) subsidy (popularly called petrol subsidy)    deductions by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, threaten revenue growth targets and budgetary performance.

In a disclosure on Monday in Abuja, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, who made the proposed 2023 budget estimate known, decried that the government might be unable to provide for treasury funded capital projects next year.

According to her, the inability to provide for treasury funded capital projects next year would largely be informed by dwindling revenue shortfalls and payment of subsidies on PMS.

The Minister in her presentation to the House of Representatives’ Committee on Finance at the hearing on the proposed 2023-2025 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, pointed out that crude oil production challenges and PMS subsidy deductions by NNPC Limited constitute a major threat to the country’s revenue growth targets.

She stated that bold, decisive and urgent action must be taken to address revenue shortfall and expenditure efficiency at the national and sub-national levels.

“In this scenario, the budget deficit is projected to be N11.30tn in 2023, up from N7.35tn in 2022.  This represents 5.01 per cent of the estimated GDP (Gross Domestic Products), above the 3 per cent threshold stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007,” she noted.

In her analysis of weighing the options of considerable scenarios, she said the government could opt for payment of petrol subsidy from January to December.

“Given the severely constrained fiscal space, budget deficit is projected to be N12.41tn in 2023, up from N7.35tn budgeted in 2022, representing 196 per cent of total FGN revenue or 5.50 per cent of the estimated GDP.

“This is significantly above the 3 per cent threshold stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and there will be no provision for treasury funded MDA’s capital projects,” she said.

She stated further that under the first scenario, the government’s projected revenue for 2023 is N6.34tn, out of which only N373.17bn is expected from oil related revenue, while the balance of N5.97tn will come from non-oil sources.

In the second scenario, the Minister said, “In addition to subsidy reform, this scenario assumes an aggregate implementation of cost-to-income limit of Government Owned Companies.

“With these, the 2023 FGN revenue is projected at N8.46tn out of which N.99tn or 23 per cent is projected to come from oil revenue sources.”

She noted that the business-as-usual scenario assumes that subsidy on PMS, which is estimated to be N6.7tn for a full year, will remain in 2023 and be fully provided for, while another scenario is the reform scenario which assumes that petrol subsidy will remain up to mid 2023 based on the 18 month extension announced early 2021, in which case, only N3.6tn will be provided for.

On the key assumptions of the proposed 2023 budget, the Minister said oil benchmark is estimated at $70 per barrel, with an oil production benchmark of 1.69 million barrel per day and an exchange rate of N435.02 to a dollar.

According to the Minister, inflation is expected to grow at 17.16 per cent, while the GDP is expected to grow at 3.75 per cent.

She said an upward pressure on prices is expected to be driven by the current and lag effect of the global price surge due to the Russia-Ukraine war, domestic insecurity, rising costs of imports, exchange rate depreciation as well as other supply side constraints.

In response, the Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, pointed out that in the prevailing financial situation in the country, all revenue sources explored by the government were constrained.

Faleke who said it was clear fact that when there is no revenue, every aspect of the country suffers, tasked all agencies appearing before the committee to provide the committee with accurate position of their revenue state.

According to him, the Committee would give no room to any agency to play with the revenue of the Country at this critical time.

Accroding to the Debt Management Office (DMO) Nigeria’s total public debt stock increased to N41.60trn in the first quarter of 2022.

“The total public debt stock as at March 31, 2022, was N41.60tn or $100.07bn, according to the Debt Management Office.

“The amount represents the domestic and external debt stocks of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the thirty-six state governments and the Federal Capital Territory. The comparative figures for December 31, 2021, were N39.56tn or $95.78bn,” the DMO had stated its report.

According to the DMO, the total public debt stock includes new domestic borrowing by the FGN to partly finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act, the $1.25bn Eurobond issued in March 2022 and disbursements by multilateral and bilateral lenders.

In March 2022, a DMO document signed by the Director-General, DMO, Patience Oniha, mentioned that Nigeria’s total debt stock is likely to reach N45trn as the DMO plans to borrow an additional N6.39tn to finance the 2022 budget deficit.

In the document, the Director-General, DMO, Patience Oniha, explained that the overall deficit in the 2022 budget was N6.30tn, representing 3.46 per cent of the country’s GDP.

Oniha had said that the budget deficit was to be financed mainly by borrowings from both domestic and foreign sources, as well as privatisation proceeds.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) had lamenting the situation of debt profile and servicing burden, said Nigeria is struggling to service these debts due to revenue mobilisation challenges and an increased fuel subsidy burden.

The trend, according to the LCCI, was disturbing, given that debt servicing alone was higher than actual retained revenue in the first four months of 2022.

“There are already concerns that most, if not all, of the assumptions in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) 2023-2025 will be missed as we continue to experience unprecedented levels of disruptions to supply chains and agricultural production.

“The 2022 budget assumptions have already fallen short in terms of inflation, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate and all of these assumptions have become inadequate.

“Nigeria’s Debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 23.27 per cent, as against 22.43 per cent on Dec. 31, 2021.

“On the path of caution, we urge the Federal Government to discontinue this unsustainable pattern,” the President, LCCI, Michael Olawale-Cole, had said.

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Fuel scarcity: MEMAN confirms availability of 300 million litres of petrol, works to end delivery glitch

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…As Reps summon Petroleum Minister, other stakeholders over rising petrol prices

The Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has announced that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, is now available and that it is working with key stakeholders to resolve the current product delivery issues.

In a statement issued in Lagos, MEMAN revealed that its members in Apapa and other locations in Lagos are receiving product from 8 vessels this week, totaling over 300 million litres of PMS, which is significantly above normal levels.

According to the statement, “We are actively coordinating with our member companies through swaps and other supply arrangements to ensure that our member stations remain stocked and that the product is delivered to consumers without any further disruptions.

“We are actively coordinating with our member companies through swaps and other supply arrangements to ensure member stations remain stocked.

“Our depots will extend their loading times to ensure we load out as much as we can including tomorrow the 1st of May 2024.

“Our partners in NARTO & PTD have assured us of their support in ensuring the product gets to the retail outlets safely and quickly. We also will extend the opening times of selected retail outlets to ensure we can service our customers as long and as safely possible.

“Independent marketers (depots and stations) are being allocated additional PMS to alleviate the situation.

“We expect the situation to improve in the coming days as supply chains adjust and stabilise.”

“Despite the challenges posed by the return of fuel queues, MEMAN assures the public of its unwavering commitment to keeping them informed and providing regular updates.

“MEMAN deeply empathises with Nigerians facing the challenges occasioned by the current availability of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and the resulting queues at many retail outlets.

“We can see the frustration and difficulties this situation is creating. The Downstream Regulator, NMDPRA and other key stakeholders across the supply chain are fully engaged and supportive to eliminate the queues as swiftly as possible.

“Our top priority is to restore stability and ensure that fuel supplies reach all depots and retail outlets across Nigeria promptly. While the current situation has been challenging, we want to reassure the public that there is an adequate supply of PMS available,” the association confirmed.

…Reps summon Petroleum Minister, other stakeholders over rising petrol prices

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives has taken decisive action in response to the ongoing fuel scarcity gripping Nigeria, summoning the Minister of Petroleum Resources and other key stakeholders within the petroleum industry.

The move comes after the adoption of a motion titled “The Need To Address The Lingering Fuel Scarcity And Rising Retail Prices Of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) Across Nigeria,” presented by Rep. Umar Shehu Ajilo during Tuesday’s plenary session.

The summoned stakeholders are expected to provide comprehensive briefings to the Assembly, outlining the measures in place to mitigate the existing crisis and prevent similar situations from arising.

“Concerned that this fuel scarcity is coming at a time when the adverse economic effect caused by subsidy removal and soaring inflation is yet to be addressed by the government, not to mention the deteriorating income of the Nigerian masses.

“Further concerned that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd is yet to address this perennial and persistent fuel scarcity problem faced by Nigerians despite the volume of resources at its disposal.

“Most worrisome that all these economic quagmires have made the lives of average Nigerians unbearable with a litre of fuel selling as much as N1,200 in some states of the Federation.

“This 10th Assembly must rise to the occasion to ensure that lasting measures are taken to address this unfortunate and embarrassing situation permanently in the interest of all Nigerians.”

However, Mr. Ajilo appealed to the House to extend invitations to the Minister of Petroleum Resources and pertinent stakeholders in the petroleum sector to convene before the assembly.

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NANS to embark on nationwide protest on May 7 over fuel scarcity, electricity crisis

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By Sodiq Adelakun

The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has announced plans to stage a nationwide protest on May 7, to demand urgent action from the government to address the persistent fuel scarcity and electricity crisis plaguing the country.

According to a statement issued by the Senate President of NANS, Akinteye Babatunde, the student body has been left with no choice but to take to the streets due to the government’s inability to effectively tackle these pressing issues.

The association expressed its deep disappointment and frustration over the continued hardships imposed on students across Nigeria due to the ongoing energy crises.

The protest, scheduled to take place in major cities and towns across the country, aims to amplify the voices of the student community and pressure the government to find lasting solutions to the fuel scarcity and electricity crisis, which have severely impacted the academic and social lives of students.

“We are mobilising for a nationwide protest to demand the removal of key officials responsible for exacerbating these issues,” Babatunde stated, highlighting the urgency of their demands.

NANS has launched protests targeting high-profile figures. Specifically, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, Mele Kyari, and the Minister for Power, Bayo Adelabu, are under fire for their alleged mismanagement contributing to the energy woes.

NANS accuses Kyari and Adelabu of overseeing a leadership marked by severe mismanagement of crucial energy resources, exacerbating the nation’s turmoil.

The student body’s strategic protest plan spans various zones across the country, ensuring widespread participation and visibility.

Designated protest locations include Abuja Junction along the Abuja-Kaduna Expressway, Airport Road in Abuja, Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Onitsha-Asaba Head Bridge, and Wuntin Dada along the Bauchi-Jos Road.

Babatunde added, “This is a collective stand against the systemic failures and neglect that have perpetuated a cycle of hardship and suffering among the populace.”

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Reps halt implementation of new electricity tariff 

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The House of Representatives has urged the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to suspend the implementation of the new tariff.

The call was sequel to the adoption of a motion by Rep. Nkemkanma Kama (LP-Ebonyi) at plenary on Tuesday.

It would be recalled that NERC had one April 3, approved an increase in electricity tariff for customers who enjoyed 20 hours of electricity daily classified as Band A users.

Moving the motion, Kama said that the aim was to restore public trust, protect consumer rights, and ensure regulatory accountability in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

He said that facts presented showed that the approval granted by NERC resulted in a staggering 300 per cent rise for certain consumers.

“What is more concerning are the reports indicating discrepancies in customer categorisation and widespread complaints regarding inadequate service despite increased charges.

“This situation has not just sparked national anxiety, but it also threatens regulatory certainty and investor confidence in the sector, demanding immediate attention.

“This motion argues for legislative intervention, underlining our constitutional and moral obligations to address the crisis and alleviate the burden on Nigerian citizens.

“It places a strong emphasis on the legislative oversight role over NERC and the electricity utilities, stressing the need for fair and just pricing and consultation with stakeholders in tariff determination processes.

“This is not just a responsibility, but a duty we owe to our constituents,” he said.

The lawmaker alleged failure of due process in approving the tariff increase which raised concerns over discriminatory practices, and  disputed the nature of government subsidies to Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs).

Sequel to the adoption of the motion, the House ordered the Nigerian electricity regulatory commission (NERC) to suspend the operation of the recently announced tariff increases and other conditions in the newly issued review of the MYTO.

The House resolved to set up a special committee made up of the Committees on Power, Commerce and National Planning to convene a public hearing on price regulation.

The lawmaker resolved to appoint a well-regarded former regulator as technical consultant to the house to develop templates for determination of the legality, reasonableness of the procedure adopted by NERC in approving the tariff increase and establishing the performance benchmarks for the Discos.

In his ruling, the Speaker of the house, Rep. Tajudeen Abbas said that the relevant committees should ensure compliance.

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