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ABCON urges CBN to float Naira 

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The Association of Bureaux Des Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to float the Naira to halt its further depreciation.

The President of ABCON, Alhaji Aminu Gwadabe, made the appeal on Saturday in an interview with journalists in Lagos.

Gwadabe explained that the CBN should do all within its powers to undertake a sustained injection of dollar in the market to reverse the loss in the value of the Naira at the parallel market.

“It might sound counterintuitive but the way out of the current frenzy is to abolish the official fixed exchange rate and allow the Naira to float.

“CBN should contemporaneously undertake a large-scale dollar intervention in the open market that can inspire confidence in the Naira and checkmate the current tailspin.

“Once there is a significant positive movement, the market will react and, in all probability, spur an avalanche of panic selling and further buoy the Naira,” Gwadabe said.

The financial expert said that the CBN could gradually buy back the dollars used in its intervention from the open market at a lower exchange rate for a decent profit.

He argued that the next phase would be to strengthen the Naira in the medium to long-term, adding that both fiscal and monetary policies should be aligned to stimulate the tradable sector.

On CBN’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 13 per cent, Gwadabe said that the adjusted rate would stifle growth.

He said efforts targeted at reducing inflation in an underperforming economy should focus on stimulating the supply side.

“Increasing the MPR contracts the supply side, it is the wrong prescription.

“Let’s not copy the Americans who target inflation with FED rates to curb money supply, their factors of production have been fully mobilized, ours is at less than 20 per cent and requires stimulation of the supply side.

“Lowering the MPR to around 5 per cent looks more appropriate.

“The U.S. per capita GDP is around 66,000 dollars, ours is $1,500 in real terms which underscores the need for a pro supply side monetary policy,” Gwadabe said.

He said the CBN should reverse his mandate to banks to pay recipients of Diaspora remittances in dollars.

According to him, most of the dollars end up under pillows outside of the mainstream banking system with no utility for capital mobilization and imports.

“It fuels currency substitution, it puts pressure on the Naira exchange rate and inflation and does not have a statutory backing unlike Domiciliary accounts, therefore, it is illegal,” Gwadabe said.

The ABCON boss said that Nigeria  had a long history of stifling the tradable sector (oil excluded), first through the Commodity Boards, the Arbitrage Kingpins, the bastion of corruption that straddled the export ecosphere whom Babangida dismembered in 1986.

“They bought low at the farm gates and sold high at the international export markets, much of the difference ended up in their private pockets.

“They impoverished the cocoa, groundnut, palm oil producers, etc. and eventually drove them out of business, not oil.

“Today, they have reincarnated as plethora of gatekeepers including the Nigerian Export Supervision Scheme at the ports exacting tolls from exporters.

“Poor infrastructure, power supply and generally unskilled labor further compound the weakness of our tradable sector.

“Any wonder why Ghana’s annual non-oil export is 13.1 billion dollars, while Nigeria’s is 1.3 billion dollars, We have a long way to go,” Gwadabe said.

He said that all the indices suggest that the Naira holds more of a downside potential than it does of an upside because the present monetary and fiscal authorities will continue to tether in the zone of docility.

The ABCON Boss said the fall of the Naira is fueled majorly by the innate desire for self-preservation of some people and corporate who substitute a weaker currency for a stronger one.

He said that the paradigm has evolved over time to the current crescendo of panic buying of forex, most of which will end up under pillows and Offshore.

He added that this phenomenon could not be adjudicated by the authorities.

“It’s typical consumer behaviour. Nigerians are sitting on an estimated 100 billion dollars chest outside the country’s mainstream banking system.

“Today’s panic buying causes currency to drop in value thereby inducing tomorrow’s panic buying which in turn results in further decline of the value of the currency and so forth.

“Panic buying is driven more by psychology and less by economic fundamentals, so the solution has to be psychological too.”

Money market

Lagos, India to boost trade partnership

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Confederation of Indian Industry have signed an agreement to boost trade partnership.

In a memorandum of understanding in Lagos on Tuesday, both parties observed that the agreement would enhance avenues for effective collaborations.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry Deputy President Knut Ulvmoen said that the partnership’s focus was to leverage the trade capacity of both parties.

Ulvmoen said that both parties would explore capacity in Information and Communication Technology, medical, training, agriculture, manufacturing and export, among others.

He acknowledged what he described as robust and enduring trade relations between Nigeria and India.

He noted that over the years, both nations had witnessed a steady growth in bilateral trade with significant contributions from various sectors.

“Today’s meeting serves as a platform to, not only strengthen the existing partnerships, but also to forge new alliances that will contribute to the sustainable growth and development of both nations.

“Together, we must seize this moment to identify synergies, exchange expertise, and explore innovative solutions to economic challenges.

“Let us leverage the collective wisdom of our industries to develop actionable strategies that will drive inclusive growth, foster entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness,” he said.

Indian High Commissioner Shri Balasubramanian expressed his belief in shared growth and prosperity by both countries.

He also emphasised the importance of Nigerian-Indian business collaboration.

Balasubramanian stated that the government of India was making efforts to build capacity in trade, seeking private sectors’ partnership to identify projects that could be profitable to the trade structure of both countries.

“The opportunities existing between both countries are enormous as more than 155 Indian companies in Nigeria employ many Nigerians.

“From oil to steel; to healthcare, we are willing to link Nigerians up with their counterparts in India as we explore avenues of collaboration and partnership,” he said.

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Naira remains at N1,350 as CBN targets FX inflow for liquidity boost

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The naira on Tuesday steadied at 1,350 per US dollar on the parallel market, popularly called black market.

On Monday morning, the naira opened the foreign exchange (FX) market at the same rate before closing at N1,360/$1 on the same day at the black market.

At the official market known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira on Monday fell to 1,419.11 per dollar, the lowest since March 13, 2024 at the official FX market, following slowing inflows occasioned by the withdrawal of funds by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).

The intraday high closed at N1,451 per dollar on Monday, weaker than N1,410 closed on Friday. The intraday low also depreciated marginally to N1,060 on Monday as against N1,051/$1 closed on Friday at NAFEM, data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange indicated.

Dollars supplied by willing buyers and willing sellers declined by 52.16 percent to $147.83 million on Monday from $309.01 million recorded on Friday.

On day to day trading, the naira weakened by 5.63 percent as the dollar was quoted at N1,419.11 on Monday as against N1,339.23 quoted on Friday at NAFEM.

During the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, emphasised the critical need to attract inflows to maintain liquidity in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the exchange rate.

In his statement, Governor Cardoso highlighted the importance of addressing inflationary pressures through exchange rate management to safeguard both price stability and long-term economic growth.

“Failure to tame inflationary pressure using the exchange rate channel may jeopardise not only price stability but also long-term growth,” stated Governor Cardoso.

Addressing concerns raised at the March 2024 MPC meeting, Governor Cardoso emphasised the need to reduce negative real interest rates to attract capital flows and enhance liquidity in the FX market. He stressed the significance of attracting capital flows through foreign portfolio investments and moderating exchange rate pressures to mitigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, particularly in Nigeria’s import-dependent economy.

Commenting on the monetary situation, Mustapha Akinkunmi highlighted a decline in Nigeria’s reserve money by 24.91 percent to approximately N22.2 trillion by the end of February 2024. Despite this, broad money (M3) supply increased to N93.7 trillion, contributing to inflationary pressures. Nigeria’s external reserves also decreased to US$32.87 billion as of March 19, 2024, from US$33.68 billion in February 2024.

Although current reserves cover imports for 5.7 months of goods only and 4.5 months of goods and services, the country’s ability to repay short-term debts using reserves exceeded the threshold at 104.0 percent, he said.

According to him, the reserves-to-broad money ratio of 33.1 percent surpassed the 20.0 percent threshold, indicating Nigeria’s capacity to manage capital flows effectively.

Governor Cardoso’s emphasis on attracting inflows and managing exchange rate pressures underscores the CBN’s commitment to maintaining stability in the FX market and combating inflationary challenges in Nigeria’s economy.

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Money market

Mobile channel most vulnerable, as financial institutions lose N17.67bn to fraudsters in 2023

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Latest report by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) on Annual Fraud Landscape (January to December 2023) has revealed that commercial banks, Point of Sales (PoS) operators and others lost about N17.67 billion to fraudsters in 2023.

The report published on its website on Monday identified mobile channels as the most vulnerable avenue for fraudsters notably Web and POS businesses.

The report noted that fraud perpetrated via mobile channels increased by five percent compared to the previous year.

It also suggested some of the regulations inputted to check fraud in financial institutions need detailed examination, modification and reinforcement.

According to the statistics revealed by the report, fraud count dropped by six percent to 95,620, as actual loss from fraud grew by 23 percent in 2023 when compared to 2022 with the first quarter being the month with the highest fraud volume in 2023 and the fourth quarter being the month with the highest fraud value.

It also disclosed that the month of May recorded the highest fraud count of 11,716, followed by February with 9,492 while October saw the highest actual loss in 2023 at N3.7 billion, followed by January with N2.7 billion. It said the count of Web Fraud decreased by 38 percent and ATM fraud recorded a 64 percent reduction from 2022 to 2023.

Also, in 2023, people aged 40 and above remained the primary targets of fraudsters, which NIBSS said signified a persistent focus on the targeting strategy of fraudsters.

“This sustained trend emphasises the enduring appeal of the demographic group as potential victims, reinforcing the need for continuous efforts to educate and protect individuals in this category from fraudulent activities,” NIBSS said.

In 2023, a total of 80,658 unique customers fell for the gimmicks of fraudsters which is four per cent less than 84,130 customers recorded in the previous year.

“This decline, though apparent, does not diminish the severity of the issue, urging the financial industry to remain vigilant, enhance security measures and collaboratively address the tenacious challenges posed by fraud,” it said.

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