2027: On the viability of emerging opposition coalition
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, a new opposition coalition has emerged, capturing the attention of political observers across the country.
This coalition, comprising influential figures such as former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, and other key players from various political factions, has the potential to reshape the nation’s political trajectory.
Its formation is reminiscent of the 2013 alliance that gave birth to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and successfully challenged the long-dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In a democracy, a thriving opposition is fundamental to ensuring checks and balances. The emergence of this coalition is seen by many as a vital attempt to inject new life into Nigeria’s political discourse, preventing the current administration from sailing to re-election without viable alternatives.
The absence of genuine opposition weakens democracy and paves the way for the rise of a de facto one-party state, a development that this coalition seeks to prevent.
However, there are deep-rooted concerns over the potential effectiveness of this alliance. Nigerian political history is littered with alliances that failed to transcend the egos and ambitions of the key players involved.
The current coalition brings together powerful figures who have all demonstrated fierce presidential ambitions. The most pressing challenge now lies in whether these individuals can set aside personal goals to unite under a common cause—one that prioritises national interests over individual desires.
Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambitions date back to 1992, with multiple unsuccessful attempts. Having contested elections in 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2023, a significant question arises: can Atiku, having dedicated so many years to his presidential quest, accept a secondary role within this coalition if a stronger candidate emerges?
Similarly, Peter Obi, who cultivated a strong, passionate following in the 2023 election, particularly among the youth and urban middle class, has become an influential figure. Will he accept a supporting role in the coalition, or will his own ambitions lead to further fragmentation?
Likewise, Nasir El-Rufai, known for his political acumen and strategic foresight, is another figure with significant ambitions. His role in the coalition raises the same question: can he put aside his personal aspirations for the greater good of the alliance?
A divided opposition in the 2023 election served as a painful lesson. The fractured votes between Atiku’s PDP, Obi’s Labour Party, and Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) significantly benefited President Tinubu and the APC.
Had these forces rallied behind a single candidate, the outcome of the election could have been radically different.
This should be a key lesson for the current opposition: unity is not just a theoretical ideal but a necessary condition for electoral success.
For the coalition to succeed where others have faltered, it must address a few key challenges. First and foremost, it needs to offer Nigerians more than just an alternative to the incumbent.
It must present a coherent, well-articulated vision for the country’s future. Voters need to know what this coalition stands for and how it plans to address Nigeria’s pressing issues, ranging from economic instability to insecurity and social inequality.
The coalition must also establish transparent and democratic mechanisms for selecting its presidential candidate. The risk of internal conflict over who leads the coalition must be minimised.
A fractured selection process could spell doom for the alliance before it even gets off the ground. A unified front requires a process that garners respect and trust from all stakeholders involved.
Furthermore, the coalition leaders must display a genuine commitment to putting the nation’s needs above their personal political aspirations.
If personal ambition is allowed to overshadow the collective goal of challenging the current administration, the coalition will implode, much like previous opposition efforts.
The socio-economic difficulties Nigerians face present a unique opportunity for this coalition. With soaring inflation, increasing fuel prices, and widespread poverty, the electorate is hungry for alternatives.
But this hunger must be met with more than just criticism of the status quo. Nigerians are not looking for political rhetoric; they are seeking practical, implementable solutions.
The opposition must present a compelling narrative, backed by detailed policy proposals, to address Nigeria’s economic and social challenges.
