2023: Adedipe projects 3.27% economic growth
The Chief Consultant, B. Adedipe Associates Ltd., Dr ‘Biodun Adedipe, has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.27 per cent in the 2023 fiscal year.
He made the predictions at the 9th National Economic Outlook summit titled, “Implications for Businesses in 2023,” on Tuesday in Lagos.
The summit was organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) Centre for Financial Studies in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates Ltd.
Adedipe noted that Nigeria’s economy had been growing and expanding based on Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
He said the economy grew by 2.97 per cent in the first three quarters of last year, and that historically, the fourth quarter always had the fastest growth rate.
“In which case, the economy must have grown at a little over three per cent, which means for the year, we are likely to get something around 3.1 per cent, which is my conservative estimate.
“So, I can then make my own growth projection and say I see the economy growing between 3.27 per cent and 3.32per cent. That is what we expect this year,” he said.
The Chief Consultant said his projections were based on a positive forecast found in the large, youthful population, consumption, new investments in manufacturing, energy and internet penetration.
He added that the expected growth would be supported by strengthening innovation culture, driven by the survival instinct, evolving payments infrastructure as well as increasing attention to global competitiveness and ease-of-doing-business.
Adedipe, also Chairman, CIBN Research Committee, urged business owners to take advantage of the many opportunities in the country by not ignoring the dynamics of the environment where they operated.
“There is also rapid urbanisation; more people in Nigeria now are living in urban areas (51.96 per cent in 2020, up from 47.84 per cent in 2015).
“So, what does that mean for your business, and how do you take advantage of that?” he asked.
Similarly, Adedipe said he expected the inflation rate to moderate at 17.76 per cent, noting that lending rate would continue to respond to the rate of inflation and would remain double digit.
He said monetary policy normalisation could start as early as Q2, but assured for H2, with downward adjustment of MPR certain for H2. This, he expects, to be fixed at 13.5 per cent.
Adepide said the economy would witness an accelerated manufacturing and focused export promotion that would bring some stability to the exchange rate of the naira to the dollar.
He predicted the official rate to likely be at about N480 to the dollar and parallel market at N705.
Adedipe said there would be an improvement in infrastructure that would positively impact the cost of doing business, adding that there would be an intensified digitisation and ascendancy of the digital economy.
Earlier, Dr Ken Opara, CIBN President, said there was need for every organisation to be fortified with adequate information to give them insights into what the new year held.
“Looking at the year 2023, in as much as we are optimistic that better days lie ahead for Nigeria’s economy, especially because it is the year that will usher in a new government and leadership structure in the nation.
“We need to gain insight into the impact of several economic indices to help us undertake a comprehensive assessment of the opportunities, challenges and indeed the threats that businesses may encounter during the current year.
“Every organisation needs to be fortified with adequate information to give them insights into what the new year holds.
“This will undoubtedly serve as a guide in making informed decisions critical to the growth of businesses and in reviewing strategic plans as the need may arise,” he said.
