Global oil major, ExxonMobil has forecasted that despite the current turbulence facing the oil and gas industry worldwide, the global energy landscape will not take a different shape in 2040 than it is now. The oil giant predicts that Oil and gas will remain king, accounting for an even slightly larger share of the energy supply. ExxonMobil also holds that Coal will fall behind natural gas to become the third-largest source of energy.
ExxonMobil also acknowledged that emerging renewable energies – solar and wind power will triple, but said they will however remain small, supplying only about 4 percent of the world’s total energy need while “Carbon emissions will continue rising until around 2030, when cuts in industrialized nations gain traction and lead to an overall reduction.” ExxonMobil uses this outlook to develop business strategies that underpin our billion-dollar investment decisions. We have every incentive to get it right,” William Colton, the oil giant’s chief strategist, said in an interview on Monday in Dallas.
Oil prices have continued to fall by the day against expectations that the prices would increase based on the international sanctions that prevented Iran from supplying oil to the market. The lifting of sanctions has cleared the way for the large oil producing country to flood the market with product and international negotiators meeting in Paris has also reached an unprecedented agreement to reduce the growth in emissions linked to climate change; yet, ExxonMobil believes that the Oil and Gas industry will lead the global economy even in 2040.
Nigerian NewsDirect finds the latest forecast similar to ExxonMobil’s previous prediction in 2014. The company had predicted that: “Oil use would grow 25 percent in that period, although it would account for a slightly smaller share of overall energy, and use of natural gas would jump 56 percent. They had said that “Global energy demand will rise 25 percent from 2014 to 2040, led by developing nations in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and together, oil and gas will account for 57 percent of the world’s energy, up from 56 percent in 2014.
The International Energy Agency recently forecast a one-third percent increase by 2040. According to them “Coal’s share will slip to 20 percent from 26 percent,” adding that “Carbon emissions will rise about 11 percent between 2014 and 2040. Emissions will fall 21 percent in industrialized nations but rise 32 percent in developing ones, notably India and countries in Latin America” and “Nuclear and biomass will each account for 8 percent of energy in 2040, hydro 3 percent, and other renewables 4 percent. ExxonMobil thinks alternative fuels will become a staple in power generation but rather grow slowly in transportation because of technology and cost issues.”